Damaging Wind in North Carolina, August 26, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
628 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A more typical late-August pattern will continue into next
week. Above-normal temperatures and afternoon and evening
thunderstorm chances, with a mainly mountain focus, can be expected
each day, with isolated heavy rain the primary threat.  A chaotic
forecast for next week, with the possibility for a cold front to
either drift across the area and lead to mid-week drying, or for
the front to move back north and result in increased moisture.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 615 PM EDT Friday: Convective outflows that developed over the
mountains and northern foothills are now drifting southeast toward
the Piedmont and triggering new cells. Many locations retain 2000+
sbCAPE values early this evening, especially in the upper Savannah
River are. Anticipate a continued southeast drift to the better
showers and thunderstorms but with an overall decreasing coverage
trend after sundown. Then, the convective debris clouds will thin,
possibly permitting areas of fog to develop again across the region
overnight, though not quite as dense and widespread as early Friday
morning. The mtn valleys stand a good chance of seeing dense fog
around daybreak. Anticipate continued mild overnight min temps.

Saturday looks a bit quieter across the area. There is an indication
that a weak back door cold front might not make as much southward
progress than thought earlier, and a short wave dropping down across
the region during the day looks devoid of dpva. The latest run of
the HREF indicates the showers and storms will develop during peak
heating, but not to the extent as today. This suggests a typical
August day with precip probs not much better than chance over the
mtns and slight chance east of the mtns, with temps maybe a few
degrees above normal. Won't rule out an isolated severe storm based
on model profiles that show decent mid-level dry air and an inverted-
V in the boundary layer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday: A positively-tilted trough continues
to lift northeastward Saturday night, as a cold frontal boundary
settles to the south.  Heights rebound through the second half of
the weekend as the subtropical high becomes more and more prominent
over the eastern CONUS.  By Sunday morning, the front should have
completely crossed the CWA, and accordingly, most deeper moisture is
shunted off to the south and east of the region by Sunday afternoon.
Winds quickly veer to ESEly, however, and allow enough low-level
moisture to build into profiles that 800-1200 J/kg appears warranted
outside the mountains.  SREF members indicate a 60-70% chance
for 1000+ J/kg, with a notable minimum across the Appalachians.
Overall, however, the convective environment looks stunted;
multiple guidance sources depict a shallow subsidence inversion
which should keep updrafts from becoming very vigorous, and the GFS,
at least, depicts fairly anemic DCAPE despite dry upper levels.
It appears that moisture will be so shallow it'll have more a
restrictive effect on updraft maintenance than an enhancing effect
on severe potential.  That said, steering flow will be extremely
weak (on the order of 1-3kts) and PWs will cap out in the 1.6-1.7"
range, so even with the fairly tight ensemble spread depicted by
the GEFS and SREF alike, whatever storms or showers do develop
will be stationary and capable of producing isolated heavy rainfall.

Monday looks to more or less be a similar setup to Sunday, with weak
ridging in place over the region and shallow moisture at the mid-
to low-levels.  Severe risk once again looks inhibited, with better
chance of isolated heavy rainfall.  Temperatures both afternoons
will be a category or two above normal.  Some uncertainty on lows
given questionable cloud cover overnight, but should be at least
a category above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Friday: Subtropical ridging continues to
deteriorate Monday night as a deep Z500 low over Saskatchewan and
Ontario drives heights down and exerts influence over the region.
A trough on the periphery of this feature works its way across the
Midwest and sharpens over the Ohio Valley through late Tuesday,
and this looks to drive a surface cold front into the Carolinas
by early Wednesday.  Notwithstanding some slowing as the front
exits the Appalachians, the GFS and EC depict this front settling
east of the CWA by Thursday, allowing deeply dry profiles to work
in through the end of the period.  The CMC as well as a number of
its ensembles depict a completely different setup, with a potent
upper low splitting off the base the advancing trough on Tuesday.
This alternative setup results in the front largely halting before
it reaches the Carolinas and lifting back north as a warm front,
placing the Carolinas in a robust warm sector as cyclogenesis
takes hold over the Ohio Valley.  This would result in a much
more active and less dry setup for the remainder of the period,
with chance to likely PoPs each afternoon.  It's far too early to
say which of these setups will ultimately arise.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are on
the move southeast on the strength of outflows from earlier
convection. Coverage will be best around the Upstate sites and KCLT
through mid evening before coverage wanes through midnight. Heavy
downpours may bring brief IFR visibility conditions as the showers
and storms roll through and brief gusts to 25 kt or better are
possible. After the convective debris clouds thin out late this
evening, expect fog to develop in the pre-dawn hours, thicker where
it rained recently, and probably locally dense in the mtn valleys.
KAVL has a good chance of LIFR, at least temporarily. May need to
add more restrictions to KCLT overnight if heavy showers fall there
this evening. Saturday looks a bit less active, with coverage higher
in and near the mountains. Expect mainly light and variable winds,
but with more of a northerly component with any thunderstorm
outflows this evening, and then light southwest to south winds on
Saturday.

Outlook: Daily, mostly diurnal convective chances continue into the
early to middle part of next week. Fog and low stratus are possible
each morning across the mountain valleys and anywhere that received
appreciable rainfall the previous day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...HG/PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
510 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-270915-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
510 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the area this afternoon and continue into early
evening. The greatest coverage is expected to be in the North
Carolina mountains. Cloud-to-ground lightning and locally heavy
rainfall will be the primary threats, but an isolated severe storm
producing damaging wind gusts will be possible. Slowly moving storms
could produce isolated flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
718 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             1 ESE GREENVILLE-SPARTA 34.87N 82.20W
08/26/2022  E0.25 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
725 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

SCZ104-270000-
Greater Oconee SC-
725 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Oconee
County through 800 PM EDT...

At 725 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Seneca, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Seneca, Westminster, Oakway and Townville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3452 8309 3453 8308 3453 8310 3454 8311
      3471 8309 3476 8295 3464 8283 3463 8285
      3463 8284 3462 8284 3462 8286 3461 8286
      3457 8290 3451 8308
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 336DEG 6KT 3468 8301

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
732 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

SCZ012-106>109-270015-
Northern Spartanburg SC-Central Greenville SC-Laurens SC-
Southern Spartanburg SC-Southern Greenville SC-
732 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Laurens, southeastern Greenville and southern Spartanburg Counties
through 815 PM EDT...

At 732 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Greenville Downtown, or near Five Forks, moving
southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mauldin, Simpsonville, Five Forks, Fountain Inn, Woodruff, Duncan,
Reidville, GSP Airport, Moore and Roebuck.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 8233 3495 8215 3479 8181 3466 8200
      3458 8227
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 336DEG 6KT 3484 8224

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
734 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

SCZ008-013-109-270015-
Cherokee SC-Southern Spartanburg SC-Union SC-
734 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Spartanburg, central Cherokee and northwestern Union Counties through
815 PM EDT...

At 734 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Gaffney, or near Pacolet Mills, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gaffney, Pacolet, Jonesville, Pacolet Mills, Croft State Park,
Cherokee Falls, Draytonville and Thicketty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 8184 3505 8178 3508 8173 3508 8151
      3475 8160 3479 8177
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 289DEG 9KT 3493 8173

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
736 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

SCZ010-107-270015-
Anderson SC-Southern Greenville SC-
736 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Greenville
and northeastern Anderson Counties through 815 PM EDT...

At 736 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Anderson, or 6 miles west of Williamston, moving east
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Piedmont, Belton, Williamston, West Pelzer and Northlake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3460 8269 3471 8266 3474 8239 3450 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 289DEG 9KT 3465 8258

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
738 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

NCZ051-052-059-270015-
Haywood NC-Swain NC-Northern Jackson NC-
738 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Jackson, east central Swain and west central Haywood Counties through
815 PM EDT...

At 737 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Waynesville, or near B.R. Parkway-Smoky Mountains To
Balsam Gap, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Maggie Valley, Balsam, B.R. Parkway-Smoky Mountains To Balsam Gap,
Smoky Mountains-Balsam Mountain, Smoky Mountains-Cataloochee,
Cherokee, B.R. Parkway-Balsam Gap To Black Balsam Area and Cove
Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8329 3559 8326 3563 8300 3536 8307
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 278DEG 10KT 3552 8318

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPT