Moderate to heavy rain with a few embedded thunderstorms resulted in a flooded roadway in Ulster County on September 5, 2022.
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The episode as NWS ALY wrote it up.
Moderate to heavy rain with a few embedded thunderstorms resulted in a flooded roadway in Ulster County on September 5, 2022.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 5, 6:26 PM EST, 34 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 726 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Periods of rainfall, heavy at times, will continue through tonight. The rain will gradually taper off late tonight into Tuesday morning for areas north and west of Albany, but will continue from Albany south and east into Tuesday afternoon. Cool temperatures will continue. A few showers may linger into Wednesday with slightly warmer temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Flood Watch remains in effect through 2 PM Tuesday for Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties... .UPDATE...As of 725 PM EDT, widespread rainfall will continue across most areas through much of tonight. Areas receiving much lighter rainfall are across the southern Adirondacks as they are located just to the north of the main moisture plume. Rainfall intensity has picked up over the past couple of hours with hourly rates reaching 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch per hour at times. A few convective elements have developed across portions of Dutchess into Litchfield counties producing some localized rainfall rates up to 1 inch per hour. Very little thunder has occurred with these convective elements so not looking at much if any thunder chances for the rest of the event across our area. Expect several more hours of rainfall before activity begins to wind down on Tuesday. Will continue to monitor possible flooding issues throughout the night. This update focused on adjusting pops and expanding more 100% pops across some areas for the next 6-12 hours based on current radar and latest hi- res guidance. Temperatures were also adjusted lower for the current hour and for tonight as some areas are near or already at previous forecast low temperatures. More details on this event is found below. Previous Discussion: As of 335 pm...early afternoon water vapor imagery shows copious moisture streaming northeastward up the Eastern Seaboard. This airmass is characterized by anomalously high 1.5-2.0 inch PWATs. Meanwhile, a northern stream wave is dropping southeastward out of Quebec. This is intensifying the upper level height gradient, resulting in the favorable positioning of a right entrance region of the strengthening upper jet, providing a broad corridor of ascent into our region. Precipitation rates have been pedestrian thus far over the forecast area, but are expected to intensify over much of the forecast area this afternoon into the evening. This increase will be in concert with low-level moist inflow increasing, and will focus some areas of heavier rainfall along axes of surface to 925 mb frontogenesis. Latest consensus in the CAMs suggests heaviest rainfall through 00Z will be across the eastern Catskills to the Capital District and Mohawk Valley. Generally expect 0.25-0.75 inch per hour rates to be common here. There is some weak elevated instability so an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out. Further south over the Mid Hudson Valley and Litchfield County, more respectable surface-based instability of 500-1000 J/kg exists as temps have warmed into the 70s with dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. Will have to watch for any convection developing along a surface boundary here, as there is potential for slow-moving storms that could produce rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr (as we have seen further east into eastern CT). Currently it is unclear if any activity will impact the ALY CWA or remain south/east. Steady/locally heavy rain continues overnight as forcing remains relatively stagnant, especially over the Capital District to Glens Falls area and eastward into southern VT for the first part of the night. The heaviest rainfall will ease southward toward the eastern Catskills, Berkshires, Mid Hudson Valley, and Litchfield Hills late tonight into Tuesday morning, in concert with the best low-level convergence. Rainfall is expected to be mostly steady with a few pockets of locally heavy rain due as f-gen forced bandlets set up. Lack of instability precludes more significant rainfall rates and the antecedent dry conditions likely mean that most of the area can take quite a bit of rain, but the prolonged nature of the moderate to locally heavy rainfall will result in a threat for urban/poor drainage areal flooding and at least a low- end flash flood threat if prolonged higher rainfall rates can be realized. This threat is maximized over the southern tier of counties where the Flash Flood Watch is in effect. The threat will be greater for any areas that pick up convective rainfall this afternoon/evening before receiving additional rainfall overnight. Rain will gradually taper off for areas north and west of Albany late tonight into Tuesday morning, but will continue to linger for areas to the south and east through Tuesday morning and perhaps into the afternoon. Highs Tuesday expected to be significantly cooler than normal with rain and clouds keeping a near-surface inversion around, with low 60s to low 70s expected. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Positively tilted midlevel trough will linger over the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. At the surface, weak high pressure will generally be located north of the forecast area, with low pressure to the south. This will keep a cool northeasterly flow across the area. Although forcing for ascent will be on the wane, at least widely scattered showers will remain possible beneath the midlevel troughing. Skies should remain mostly cloudy, but there could be a few breaks, especially the further north one goes. Will call for highs still a bit below normal on Wednesday, but warmer than Monday/Tuesday, in the mid-60s to low 70s. The trough may finally shift east of the area Wednesday night into Thursday, although there is some uncertainty with this. A slower movement would keep a bit more clouds and cooler temps around. Will follow NBM guidance which has skies becoming mostly sunny by Thursday with highs back near normal mainly in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Upper level ridging and surface high pressure give way to fair weather conditions with just above normal average temperatures for the start of the forecast period. Friday and Saturday are expected to feature dry, warm conditions while an approaching upper level trough and associated low pressure system approach late Sunday, increasing the chance of showers Monday. The final remnants of the upper/mid level trough that dominated the Northeast for much of the week move out of our region and out off the Mid-Atlantic Coast throughout the night Thursday into the early morning hours of Friday. High pressure immediately behind it begins to build into the region, causing a rising of mid and upper level heights and clearing skies. Friday looks to be a mostly clear day as the ridge continues to strengthen. High temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to around 80 can be expected at lower elevations, while higher elevations could see temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Saturday is expected to be another favorable day with temperatures increased slightly in range from upper 70s to low 80s in the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys and mid 70s above 1000 ft. Clouds are expected to increase gradually especially throughout the afternoon Saturday ahead of an impending system Sunday. Low temperatures for Friday and Saturday look to range from the upper 50s to low 60s. While models are in disagreement about the finer details, guidance shows the deepening of an upper/mid level trough extending down from the northern Hudson Bay through the northwest portion of the United States throughout the forecast period. As this system progresses through the weekend, it continues to deepen, forming a closed low pressure system over the greater portion of the Midwest. The upper/mid level trough splits at the formation of this upper level feature late Sunday, allowing a more northerly trough system to set up over the Great Lakes. This trough looks to approach our region late Sunday night into early Monday morning with an associated weak cold front that could promote the chance for showers during the day Monday. Exact timing surrounding this system's progression and the chance for showers are uncertain at this time. High temperatures Sunday and Monday are expected to be cooler as a result of the weak cold front approaching the region. Highs in the upper 70s with a few 80s in the lower Hudson Valley can be expected Sunday, while temperatures in the mid to upper 70s can be expected Monday. Low temperatures Sunday are expected to range from the upper 50s to low 60s. Higher elevations on both these days are expected to see high temperatures in the mid 70s to upper 60s. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00z/Wed...Widespread rainfall, heavy at times, will continue through tonight and into at least the first half of tomorrow across all TAF sites. Expect a fluctuation between MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions based on ceilings and visibilities during this time. Some improvements to ceilings and visibilities will be possible at all sites Tuesday afternoon as rain lessens in intensity, though ceilings will likely only lift to MVFR at best. Wind will be mainly in the northeasterly direction at 10 kt or less through the period. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... A prolonged period of rainfall is expected this afternoon through at least Tuesday morning. The rain should be steadiest through this evening for the eastern Catskills to the Capital District and Mohawk Valley, where 0.25-0.75 inch per hour rates are expected. Elsewhere, there is a conditional threat of higher rainfall rates if surface- based convection can develop over portions of Dutchess and Litchfield Counties. There is potential for slow-moving storms that could produce rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr (as we have seen further east into eastern CT), but currently it is unclear if any activity will impact the ALY HSA or remain south/east. Tonight, steadiest rainfall from the Capital District to Glens Falls area and southern Vermont will gradually shift southward toward the eastern Catskills, Berkshires, Mid Hudson Valley, and Litchfield Hills, lingering into Tuesday morning. Steady to locally heavy rainfall is expected overnight. Lack of instability precludes more significant rainfall rates and the antecedent dry conditions likely mean that most of the area can take quite a bit of rain, but the prolonged nature of the moderate to locally heavy rainfall will result in a threat for minor urban/poor drainage flooding and at least a low-end flash flood threat. This threat is maximized over the southern tier of counties where the Flash Flood Watch is in effect. The threat will be greater for any areas that pick up convective rainfall this afternoon/evening before receiving additional rainfall overnight. Overall, storm total rainfall of 2-4 inches is expected for most of the area from the Mohawk Valley to the Glens Falls area to Southern VT and points south, locally up to 5" over Ulster, Dutchess, and Litchfield Counties through Tuesday. These amounts will result in rises on area rivers and streams, but main stem flooding is not anticipated due to the antecedent low river levels. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for CTZ001-013. NY...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for NYZ063>066. MA...None. VT...None. && SYNOPSIS...Thompson NEAR TERM...Thompson/Rathbun SHORT TERM...Thompson LONG TERM...Gant AVIATION...Rathbun HYDROLOGY...Thompson
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albany NY 342 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 2022 MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-082>084-VTZ013>015- 061200- Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton- Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga- Northern Warren-Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady- Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany- Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene- Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren- Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham- 342 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Massachusetts, eastern New York aside from Ulster and Dutchess Counties, and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Widespread rainfall is expected today and tonight, with locally heavy rainfall possible. This may result in minor flooding in urban and poor drainage areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. CTZ001-013-NYZ063>066-061200- Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Western Ulster- Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess- 342 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut and east central New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to relay rainfall amounts and flooding to the National Weather Service in Albany New York.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Northbound US 9W Ramp to NY Route 199 was closed due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1055979.