A weak surface low and boundary moved across a marginally unstable air mass across Ontario and New York during the afternoon of July 28th. Several thunderstorms developed across Ontario and then moved into New York and continued to develop.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BTV wrote it up.
A weak surface low and boundary moved across a marginally unstable air mass across Ontario and New York during the afternoon of July 28th. Several thunderstorms developed across Ontario and then moved into New York and continued to develop. Many of these storms contained heavy rain and lightning with one isolated storm that produced marginal wind damage to trees.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Burlington, VT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 28, 12:47 PM EST, 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 147 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon across the North Country and will begin exiting the region to the east by 8 PM. Some storms may produce damaging winds and large hail. Please be ready to react to any severe thunderstorm warnings. Quieter weather is expected for Friday and will continue through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 147 PM EDT Thursday...A line of thunderstorms has begun to develop west of the St. Lawrence River as of 1 PM with wind gusts in the 45-50 mph range already being observed from mesonet stations in the vicinity of Lake Ontario. Convection thus far has been enhanced not only be a pre- frontal trough but also a weak MCV that has been visible off KTYX and Canadian radars through the morning and early afternoon hours. This extra forcing is just what storms needed to begin to fire with a more robust lines currently present than any CAM had through the morning hours. The HRRR and RAP are catching up to what's going on but are still off a little bit. Nevertheless, the idea that SBCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg remains likely given the later onset of storm activity, especially across Vermont where storms aren't expected until 4 PM or later. The 500 mb shear that we have been waiting on is just about to cross the St. Lawrence and should catch up to the current line of showers and thunderstorms just entering northern New York between 2 PM and 3 PM. This should allow for storms to begin transitioning from strong to severe with the addition of 0-6 km shear. The main convective mode today will be winds given the linear coverage of thunderstorm activity and unidirectional shear profiles with hail being much less likely given freezing levels near 13kft and wet bulb zeroes near 12kft. Tornado probabilities remain very low today given LCL values should be over 5000 feet so even if we have an increase in 0-1 km helicity, there likely won't be anything within that layer. The general thinking for timing this afternoon will see these storms move into the Adirondack around 3 PM, Vermont around 4-5 PM, and exiting east into New Hampshire around 8 PM. The one thing to watch will be how the existing convective debris impacts temperatures across Vermont as we should see thickening cloud cover ahead of the storms due to the unidirectional shear profiles. Please keep an eye on the sky through the remainder into the early evening and be ready to take action should a severe storm impact your area. The forecast for tonight and Friday is a lot less active with clearing skies expected tonight in the wake of the afternoon convection. Fog shouldn't be in play tonight with strong low level flow within the boundary layer which should prevent any fog or stratus to try and situate in our favored valleys. Mainly dry conditions are on tap for Friday with drier air filtering in behind a cold front. However, some weak vorticity advection near the International Border may yield some light showers across the higher terrain in Vermont and New York. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 147 PM EDT Thursday...Expecting a fairly nice start to the weekend with a mix of sun and clouds and seasonal temperatures. A weak upper shortwave will cross the area, but with little in the way of moisture along with a strengthening warm nose aloft, don't anticipate much more than perhaps a light mountain shower or two. Otherwise, it'll be dry with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Saturday night will be on the cool side with lows in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 147 PM EDT Thursday...The main story for next will be a return to warmer conditions. The start of the week will be dry as high pressure builds to our south. Temperatures will warm through early week as well, with temperatures reaching into the upper 80s/low 90s by Monday. Sunday won't be terribly humid, but moisture increases for Monday and Tuesday with dewpoints rising into the lower/mid 60s. A slow moving front will sag south out of Canada Tuesday into Tuesday night, and expect we'll see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in response. While we won't see much in the way of shear, though SB CAPE looks to run in the 600-1200 J/kg range. Things turn quieter by Wednesday once the front passes by, but after a brief dip in temperatures, we'll see a return to warmer- than-normal conditions as we head into late week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday...A broken line of showers and thunderstorms has developed west of the St. Lawrence River and will make steady progress eastward across the North Country through the afternoon hours. Given an increase in areal coverage is expected, we have included TEMPO groups to include mention of thunderstorms at all terminals. KMSS and KSLK could see thunderstorms as early as 18Z with chances increasing across Vermont closer to 20Z. Brief MVFR to IFR visibilities will be possible with the strongest thunderstorms as well as variable gusts of 30-40 knots. We have excluded these winds for the main package but will be watching thunderstorms closely over the next several hours. These should exit the region around 00Z with quieter weather through the overnight. Fog isn't expected as boundary layer winds should preclude and low stratus from setting up the favored locations. We should be well mixed tomorrow afternoon with gusty winds developing at TAF sites by 15Z. Outlook... Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && SYNOPSIS...Clay NEAR TERM...Clay SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Clay
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Burlington VT 1207 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>011-016>021-291615- Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton- Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle- Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia- Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin- Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor- Eastern Windsor- 1207 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed.
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 112 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:04 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Utility lines downed by fallen branches and a few trees.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1033478.