Damaging Winds in New York, July 12, 2022

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1150 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms
into this evening with a few strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms this afternoon. An upper level disturbance will
slowly move across the area Wednesday and Thursday with
additional shower chances. Drier weather looks to return Friday
into Saturday with high pressure returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The Storm Prediction Center continues to place our region in a
marginal to slight risk for severe weather today.

.UPDATE...As of 1130 AM EDT, adjusted POPs downwards to account
for the ongoing dry break from showers/storms in place late
this morning; however, TYK radar shows convection firing in the
Tug Hill with a few isolated showers in the southern/western
Adirondacks. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1000-2000J/kg of SBCAPE over
western NY where dew points are higher in the low 70s. While
the air mass over eastern NY and western New England features
lower dew points and thus lower SBCAPE, the upstream air mass
should push downstream into the Adirondacks and western Mohawk
Valley through early afternoon as the trough currently in
Ontario swings eastward. The combination of increasing height
fall ahead of the trough and an incoming unstable air mass should
erode away the slight cap in place seen on the 12 UTC ALY
sounding and allow isolated to scattered storms to develop this
afternoon. Factors that may limit convection from becoming too
widespread stems from rather unimpressive mid-level lapse rates
at just near 5.5 - 6C/km and ambiguous low-level forcing
although latest GOES16 satellite imagery suggests a pre-frontal
trough or lake breeze boundary is tracking eastward through
western/central NY which could help provide a focus for
convection.

Based on the latest CAMS, storms should initially track into
areas north/west of Albany early this afternoon before pushing
south/east of the Capital District mainly after 18-19 UTC. A
nearly unidirectional shear profile with effective shear
impressively ranging 45-55kts should allow storms to organize
and grow upscale, assuming the low-level forcing is strong
enough to initiate convection. Latest CAMs suggests that storms
could morph into storm clusters as they grow upscale and remain
in a favorable shear environment. With DCAPE values 500 -
1000J/kg, damaging winds should be the main hazard. SPC
maintained the slight risk over much of the Northeast with its
13 UTC update but did introduce an enhanced risk for parts of
the mid- Atlantic. ALY plans to launch an 18 UTC sounding to
sample the incoming air mass.

Previous discussion...During the day today, upper-level
troughing and a surface cold front will advance from the west.
Guidance is suggesting multiple rounds or clusters of showers
and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day and into the
evening. The morning hours will generally consist of occasional
showers and possible rumbles of thunder favoring areas along and
north of I-90 through the morning hours. Will reintroduce a
slight chance for thunder for this activity as instability is
expected to increase. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon with perhaps a couple of discrete or
multicell clusters tracking from northwest to southeast across
the forecast area. Most of this activity should wind down early
this evening leaving mainly dry weather for tonight. While hi-
res guidance varies regards to location and timing of activity
throughout the day, there was enough confidence to place most if
not the entire forecast area in likely pops at some point
during this event.

Dynamics should be in place for a few stronger to perhaps severe
thunderstorms. The one question regarding this potential is the
amount of cloud debris and shower activity this morning and if
it will dampen chances for some areas (especially for areas
north and west of Albany). The overall wind field will be rather
impressive with 0-6km bulk shear values between 50-60 kt. Our
region will also be located within the right entrance region of
an 80-100 kt upper level jet as well as mid- level flow in the
50-60 kt range and a 25-35 kt low- level jet. Given moderately
strong/roughly unidirectional flow, fast-moving storms should
organize locally, with the stronger storms/clusters becoming
capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and
marginal hail.

Outside of these thunderstorms, it will be warm and humid with a
continued southerly breeze. Some wind gusts in the 20-30 mph
range cannot be ruled out outside of thunderstorms. Highs should
range from the 70s across the higher elevations to the 80s to
perhaps near 90 in the valleys.

Once showers end this evening, partial clearing is expected
which, with winds trending light to calm and humidity levels
remaining high, could result in patchy fog. Some isolated
showers cannot be ruled out across the Adirondacks. Lows will
dip into the mid-50s to mid-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday and Thursday will feature upper-level troughing across
the region with a few embedded shortwaves passing through the
trough axis. While precipitable water values will be lower and
dewpoints will be slightly reduced, there should be enough lift
as well as weak instability for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms each day. Skies should turn partly cloudy
during this period due to the cool mid-level air aloft. Highs
both days will range from the upper 60s to mid- 70s across the
higher elevations to the upper 70s to upper 80s in the valleys.

High pressure will attempt to build into the region from the
west Thursday night bringing a drier air mass and end to shower
chances. Skies should turn mostly clear as well. Lows Thursday
night will dip into the upper 40s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended forecast opens with tranquil weather as the mid and
upper level trough moves east of the region, as surface high
pressure ridges in from the Great Lakes Region for Friday, and
moves over NY and New England to open the weekend. A return of
low-level moisture and humidity levels will increase to close
the weekend, as an upper level disturbance and a weak cold front
will approach from the west to open next week, as temps run a
little above normal

Fri-Fri night...Most of the medium range guidance and the
ensembles have the mid and upper level trough axis move down
stream of eastern NY and western New England during the day.
There is an isolated threat for a shower south and east of
Albany over the southern Taconics, Berkshires and NW CT with the
remnant cold pool aloft with the trough, but mainly dry weather
is forecast with the sfc anticyclone building in from the west.
Sfc dewpoints will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s. H850 temps
of +11C to +13C on the 00Z GFS would support max temps near or
slightly below seasonal values with upper 70s to lower 80s in
the valleys and over the hills with some upper 60s to mid 70s
over the mtns. The sfc anticyclone builds eastward over NY and
New England Fri night with ideal radiational cooling conditions
with lows in the 50s with a few upper 40s over the southern
Adirondacks, and a few readings near 60F in the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT.

Sat-Sat night...The mid and upper level flow becomes zonal over
the Northeast. The sfc anticyclone shifts east of the New
England Coast. Partly to mostly sunny and pleasant conditions
are expected with sfc dewpts remaining in the 50s. Some low to
mid level warm advection occurs with H850 temps rising to +13C
to +15C. Highs will be slightly warmer than FRI with low to mid
80s in the valleys. A few upper 80s are possible in the mid
Hudson Valley with 70s to lower 80s over the higher terrain. A
return southerly flow of more humid air occurs Sun night with
the sfc high off the East Coast. Mid and upper level heights
increase slightly. Lows will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Sun-Mon...Typical summer-time warmth and humidity will
overspread the region to close the weekend and open next week.
Some spread continues in the medium range guidance/ensembles on
the timing of the next cold front and short-wave trough
approaching from the west. We kept a low chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast based on the NBM guidance, as this
activity will likely be tied to the diurnal heating and the
increase of low-level moisture and humidity. It will become
moderately humid with dewpoints in the 60s. Max temps should
rise a little above normal for mid July, as the subtropical
ridging off the East Coast attempts to ridge in. Max temps in
the mid and upper 80s in the valley areas, and mid 70s to lower
to mid 80s over the hills and mtns. A muggy night is expected
Sunday night with lows in the 60s with some upper 50s over the
higher terrain. The short-wave trough and its attendant weak
cold front approach from the lower Great lakes Region Monday
with a chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms with
temps running above normal ahead of the boundary and upper
level disturbance. The latest GFS dampens this feature out
compared to the 00Z ECMWF as the subtropical ridge off the East
Coast builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will approach from southeast Canada and the
eastern Great Lakes Region today. It will move across the region
in the late afternoon into the early evening with showers and
some scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms.

VFR conditions are expected prior to 16Z/TUE for
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. Mid and high clouds will increase ahead of
a prefrontal trough. Some showers may get close to KGFL/KALB
between 12Z-15Z/TUE and we addressed with a VCSH. TEMPO groups
were used 16Z- 20Z at KGFL and 17Z-21Z at KALB for better
chances of thunderstorms based on the latest few runs of the 3-km
HRRR. MVFR and localized brief IFR conditions may occur with
the thunderstorms. Wind gusts up to 35 kt were used in the
TEMPO groups.

The threat for showers and thunderstorms increases in the late
afternoon, as PROB30 groups were used for thunderstorms at 21Z-
23Z/KPSF and 20Z-00Z/WED for KPOU. Ahead of the thunderstorms,
cigs should be scattered-broken 4-5 kft AGL and 8-12 kft AGL at
those two sites. We included MVFR conditions in terms of
cigs/vsbys with the potential thunderstorms and wind gusts up to
35 kt.

Improving conditions back to VFR levels from northwest to southeast
are expected with scattered-bkn mid and high clouds 21Z/TUE to
00Z/WED. A few showers could linger near KPOU and a VCSH was left in.
Clearing skies and light to calm winds shortly before 06Z/WED
may allow for MVFR/IFR radiational mist to form with more
moisture in the boundary layer. We added mist to all the sites
with IFR conditions possible at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF.

LLWS was kept in until 15Z at KGFL/KPOU, where the sfc winds
have gone light at 5 kt or calm and the 2 kft AGL winds have
increased to 35-40 kt.

The winds will be south to southwest in the late morning into the
afternoon at 8-15 kt with some gusts around 20-25 kt for KALB. The
winds will shift to the west to southwest with the frontal passage
at around 8-12 kt. The winds will become light and variable
direction at 5 kt or less prior to 04Z/WED.

With the strong to severe thunderstorms threat, expect brief periods
of much stronger wind gusts.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A frontal system will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms
into this evening with a few strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms this afternoon. An upper level disturbance will
slowly move across the area Wednesday and Thursday with
additional shower chances. Drier weather looks to return Friday
into Saturday with high pressure returning.

The RH values will lower to 50 to 70 percent today, then rebound
to 90 to 100 percent tonight. RH values lower to 40 to 60
percent on Wednesday.

Wind will be south to southwesterly at 10-20 mph with a few
gusts to 30 mph through this afternoon, then become westerly at
less than 10 mph tonight. Westerly wind will continue on
Wednesday at 7-14 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal system will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms
into this evening with a few strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms this afternoon. An upper level disturbance will
slowly move across the area Wednesday and Thursday with
additional shower chances. Drier weather looks to return Friday
into Saturday with high pressure returning.

The greatest coverage of showers appears to be across areas
north and west of Albany with amounts of 0.25 to 0.75 of an inch
common. Elsewhere, amounts may vary depending on where showers
and thunderstorms develop, though 0.10 to 0.40 of an inch is
possible. The fast movement of these showers should prevent any
hydrological issues as most of the region need the rain and
flows are low.

There are additional chances for showers and possible
thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday but amounts look to be
generally insignificant and more localized.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...Rathbun

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
407 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-131100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
407 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, eastern New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across most of
eastern New York and western New England today. Damaging wind gusts
are the primary threat from these storms. Large hail and an isolated
tornado are a secondary threat but cannot be ruled out. The main
window for severe storms is between 1 and 8 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay any reports of severe
weather to the National Weather Service in Albany New York.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

NYZ033-038-039-041-042-082-121800-
Southern Fulton NY-Hamilton NY-Northern Fulton NY-
Southern Herkimer NY-Northern Warren NY-Northern Saratoga NY-
130 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
Hamilton, west central Warren, central Fulton, northwestern Saratoga
and southern Herkimer Counties through 200 PM EDT...

At 129 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms from near Lewey Lake Campground to 8 miles southwest
of Lake Pleasant to near Newport. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Herkimer, Little Falls, Speculator, Johnsburg, Dolgeville,
Northville, Lake Pleasant, Wells, Newport, Stratford, Middleville,
Day Center, Moffitt Beach Campground, Caroga Lake, Caroga Lake Public
Campground, Sacandaga Campground, Oppenheim, Fairfield, Thurman and
Stony Creek.

This includes Interstate 90 near exit 29A.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
eastern and east central New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4316 7512 4338 7459 4371 7434 4364 7374
      4325 7404 4301 7464 4305 7476 4302 7474
      4297 7474 4295 7479 4309 7519
TIME...MOT...LOC 1729Z 287DEG 27KT 4363 7431 4337 7451 4313 7508

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MSE