Flash Flood in New Mexico, September 12, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1122 AM MDT Mon Sep 12 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 AM MDT Mon Sep 12 2022

Storm chances will continue to favor the western half of the state
today through Tuesday, and then across central and eastern NM
Tuesday night through Wednesday as the remnants of Kay cross the
region. Locally heavy rainfall and the threat of burn scar flash
flooding will exist as a result, peaking Tuesday evening and
night. Daytime highs will trend cooler given the expected cloud
cover. Drier and warmer weather take hold Thursday into next
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 AM MDT Mon Sep 12 2022

The remnant circulation from Kay is finally beginning to move E/NE
from the Baja region as an upstream upper low pushes into the Pac
NW. The high amplitude upper ridge axis over NM will drift east as
well today while large-scale ascent approaches from the west. PWATs
in this airmass will increase above 1" which will help storms to
produce locally heavy rainfall. Slow storm motion continues today
until the ridge shifts east of the area Tuesday. Sct to nmrs SHRA/TS
will be favored over western NM with isold to sct activity along the
central mt chain. Confidence is too low to pinpoint any particular
threat area for flash flooding and WPC also agrees on the risk of
excessive rainfall as marginal for now. Precip may linger along and
west of the Cont Dvd tonight as a wave of storms from AZ turns to
areas of rain and showers overnight.

Tuesday is still likely to be the most widespread day of storms with
the heaviest rainfall rates. However, storm motion will increase to
between 15 and 25 mph so the threat for flash flooding may be mainly
with any training cells. The upper wave has trended slower in recent
model solutions which may allow more time for destabilization across
central and western NM. Bulk shear values up to 30 kt over western
NM with MUCAPE above 1500 J/kg may allow for a few strong storms to
fire up as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 232 AM MDT Mon Sep 12 2022

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning begins the long term period
with the main trough axis of the remnants of Kay passing over NM.
Numerical model guidance shows the trough opening as it transits
northeastward over the state, with overall convective activity
trending lower through the night. Showers and storms will be
slowest to end over the northwestern high terrain, and over the
south-central mountains into the southeastern plains where a weak
H7 trough looks to keep convection going a bit longer into the
night. Conditions look to nearly clear out by Wednesday morning
with a few remnant showers over northern NM. By Wednesday
afternoon the main trough axis will have exited over eastern CO
with westerly flow aloft setting up. This drier flow regime looks
to begin mixing to the surface over western NM, with southerly
return flow still bringing in surface Gulf moisture into eastern
NM. Afternoon storms look to favor the northern high terrain and
along the pseudo dryline over the eastern plains Wednesday.
Steering flow will take storms eastward toward TX.

Confidence remains relatively high that dry westerly to
southwesterly flow aloft sets up Thursday into next weekend. This
will trend daytime highs warmer with near nil chances for
precipitation. The extended period into next week remains a
question mark regarding the development and placement of an upper
high with a wide range of solutions and low forecast confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 AM MDT Mon Sep 12 2022

A tropical wave begins to move inland into the desert SW today,
and moisture advection from it will result in developing TS/SHRA
over the western and central high terrain around 19Z. These storms
will increase in coverage as the afternoon progresses, especially
along and west of the Continental Divide where the moisture plume
will focus. Lesser coverage will be expected across central NM
with relatively drier air in place. Showers and storms across the
west will likely persist overnight as that tropical wave continues
to approach.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM MDT Mon Sep 12 2022

An upper level trough with the remnants of Kay will sweep across NM
thru Wednesday. Showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall will
focus across western NM today then become widespread Tuesday before
shifting thru eastern NM Wednesday. Slow storm motion will continue
today then speeds increase toward the E/NE on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Faster cell motion may limit the flash flood threat outside of
repeated storms. An upper level ridge will then build north into the
region thru the end of the week with warmer and drier conditions
thru early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  87  60  80  56 /  10  20  40  60
Dulce...........................  83  47  75  48 /  10  10  70  70
Cuba............................  82  52  76  50 /  10  20  70  70
Gallup..........................  79  53  74  50 /  40  60  50  40
El Morro........................  73  52  69  48 /  40  70  80  50
Grants..........................  79  50  74  47 /  30  40  70  50
Quemado.........................  75  52  71  49 /  60  70  80  40
Magdalena.......................  77  56  74  53 /  40  40  70  60
Datil...........................  74  51  71  48 /  60  50  80  50
Reserve.........................  81  52  78  50 /  60  60  70  40
Glenwood........................  82  60  79  57 /  60  60  60  40
Chama...........................  76  45  69  45 /  10  10  70  60
Los Alamos......................  78  56  74  52 /  20  20  70  70
Pecos...........................  80  53  76  51 /  20  20  60  60
Cerro/Questa....................  78  39  74  42 /  10  10  50  40
Red River.......................  75  41  70  41 /  10  10  60  40
Angel Fire......................  73  37  69  42 /  20  10  60  40
Taos............................  81  47  76  49 /  10  10  50  40
Mora............................  79  47  73  48 /  20  10  60  50
Espanola........................  87  55  83  54 /  10  10  60  60
Santa Fe........................  80  56  76  53 /  10  10  60  70
Santa Fe Airport................  82  54  79  53 /  10  10  60  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  83  62  81  57 /  10  20  60  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  85  63  83  58 /  10  20  60  70
Albuquerque Valley..............  88  61  84  58 /  10  20  60  60
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  87  62  83  58 /  10  20  60  70
Belen...........................  87  59  84  58 /  10  20  50  60
Bernalillo......................  88  60  84  58 /  10  20  60  70
Bosque Farms....................  87  59  84  57 /  10  20  60  70
Corrales........................  89  61  85  58 /  10  20  60  70
Los Lunas.......................  87  60  84  58 /  10  20  60  70
Placitas........................  84  60  81  56 /  10  20  60  70
Rio Rancho......................  87  61  82  57 /  10  20  60  70
Socorro.........................  87  61  85  58 /  20  30  60  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  78  56  74  52 /  10  20  70  70
Tijeras.........................  82  56  78  53 /  10  20  60  70
Edgewood........................  80  52  75  51 /  10  20  60  70
Moriarty/Estancia...............  82  50  78  50 /  10  20  60  70
Clines Corners..................  78  53  74  52 /  20  20  50  60
Mountainair.....................  79  53  76  52 /  20  30  60  70
Gran Quivira....................  80  54  77  53 /  20  20  60  70
Carrizozo.......................  82  60  80  58 /  20  20  60  60
Ruidoso.........................  75  54  73  53 /  40  30  60  60
Capulin.........................  80  50  78  53 /  10  10  20  10
Raton...........................  84  48  82  51 /  10  10  30  20
Springer........................  86  48  84  53 /  10  10  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  82  49  78  52 /  20  10  50  50
Clayton.........................  86  55  86  59 /  10  10  10  10
Roy.............................  83  52  82  56 /  10  10  20  20
Conchas.........................  88  58  88  62 /  10  10  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  86  58  84  59 /  10  10  30  40
Tucumcari.......................  89  61  89  63 /  10  10  10  20
Clovis..........................  85  60  86  61 /   0  10  10  20
Portales........................  87  61  87  62 /   0  10  10  20
Fort Sumner.....................  87  60  86  61 /  10  10  20  30
Roswell.........................  90  63  90  64 /  10  10  20  30
Picacho.........................  83  58  82  58 /  30  20  50  50
Elk.............................  79  56  78  55 /  40  20  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...15