Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in New Mexico, July 11, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1200 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Clouds forming on the high terrain will build into SHRA/TS by 19Z.
Storm motion will be slow and erratic with propagation on outflow
boundaries toward the south and west into nearby highlands and
valleys. A back door cold front entering northeast NM today will
become the focus for a few strong storms with heavy rain, hail and
damaging winds thru 06Z. This front will shift southwest into the
RGV tonight and keep SHRA/TS going thru 09Z within central NM. Brief
IFR/MVFR cigs and vsbys are possible from direct hits with heavy
rain. Mid level cloud decks will persist into Tuesday morning in
many areas.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...156 AM MDT Mon Jul 11 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Monsoon moisture persists over the area and will result in a round of
showers and storms later today that will focus over northern and
western portions of the state. A backdoor front will move southwest
across the area beginning this evening, which will increase moisture
further and cause showers and storms to persist overnight across
north portions of the area. The threat for locally heavy rainfall
and flash flooding will trend up later this afternoon and evening
across portions of northeast New Mexico, including the Hermits Peak-
Calf Canyon and Cook's Peak burn scars, due to the combination of
the backdoor front and very slow moving storms. A robust round of
storms is forecast Tuesday as well, with a continued and potentially
more widespread threat of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
Expect more of the same from mid week and into the weekend, with no
let up of heavy rain producing storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
There are a few key features to note on water vapor imagery this
morning that will become important for New Mexico during the short-
term period. First, the H5 high that's been present over NE NM and
across OK/TX is still there with drier air still in place across
eastern NM. However, another high pressure is beginning to build
over AZ at this time. Farther north, a shortwave is digging into the
northern Great Plains, and its front can even be seen tracking
southward through WY and NE at this hour. It will take much of the
day before that front gets to our area, and before it does, it will
be another typical monsoon day. The monsoonal moisture plume is
still focused across the west although some of the aforementioned
drier air filtering in from the east had an impact on yesterday
evening's ABQ PWAT with it falling to 0.75". Still, plentiful
moisture will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the northern
and western mountainous terrain with steering flow still tracking
these storms slowly towards the west. The backdoor cold front then
begins to nose into northeastern NM by mid-afternoon, initially
increasing storm chances for the northeast corner of the state. The
front makes further progress south and west after sunset, providing
abundant amounts of moisture with PWATs rising to near 1.25". With
favorable upslope flow, this front provides the focus for
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall likely to continue through the
overnight hours. A Flood Watch has been issued for the east slopes
of the Sangre de Cristos as well as the adjacent highlands where
confidence was highest in the flooding potential, especially on the
HPCC burn scar.

The backdoor front makes it through the gaps of the central mountain
chain late Monday and into early Tuesday, likely providing a weak
gap wind for the eastern ABQ area. The H5 high that was to our E/NE
fades away as the high over AZ becomes the dominant feature.
Moisture values stay high though on Tuesday as they were replenished
thanks to the passage of that front. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are expected again on Tuesday with the risk for heavy
rainfall and flash flooding continuing.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Slow moving and heavy rain producing storms will persist into Tuesday
evening across central and western NM with a continued threat for
flash flooding, especially on area burn scars. The upper high center
over southern Utah will become the dominant center Tuesday night and
is forecast to move east over southern CO Thursday, then persist over
the region through at least Sunday although there is some
disagreement among the 00Z medium range model solutions with regard
to an eastward expansion of the high. Regardless, moisture is here
to stay and both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF show the PWAT at KABQ
gradually trending up to near 1.3" by late Sunday, which is well
above normal. The only significant day to day changes will be
steering flow as the upper high wobbles around the region, but
otherwise daily rounds of heavy rain producing convection are likely
with an increasing flash flood threat as grounds continue to
saturate. Daytime temperatures will generally be at or below normal
across central and western NM and at or above normal across the
eastern plains, which will mostly miss-out on rain.

15/11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No critical fire weather concerns over the next week as daily rounds
of showers and thunderstorms continue through the foreseeable
future. Thunderstorms through the first part of today will favor
central and western NM with steering flow slowly tracking them
towards the west. However, a more active pattern is expected this
evening through Tuesday as a backdoor cold front brings an abundant
amount of moisture and favorable upslope flow to help increase storm
chances across the east. Flash flooding, especially on recent burn
scars, remains the primary concern. The high pressure system then
becomes more centered over NM Wednesday through the weekend. Despite
this, daily rounds of storms will continue with slow and erratic
storm motions contributing to the possibility of flash flooding.

15

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for the following zones...
NMZ215-228-229.

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