Cold in New Mexico, December 22, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1047 PM MST Wed Dec 21 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 207 PM MST Wed Dec 21 2022

An Arctic cold front is still on track to plow south through
eastern New Mexico tonight into tomorrow ushering in much colder
temperatures and strong northerly winds. Temperatures will fall
rapidly behind the front and remain steady during the day
Thursday. Strong westerly winds will also be present across the
northern and central mountains during this time as well. Clouds
will increase areawide Friday with some light snow showers
possible across the north due to a weak trailing disturbance.
Meanwhile, the modified arctic airmass will remain in place
across eastern New Mexico through early Saturday, before a rapid
warmup through the Christmas holiday into the last week of 2022.
Strengthening winds, valley showers, and mountain snow look to
impact western and northern areas mid next week with chances for a
warmer and wetter than normal start to 2023.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 207 PM MST Wed Dec 21 2022

A gusty Arctic cold front will dive southward through the eastern
plains tonight while a strong speed maximum in the polar jetstream
crosses the northeast half of the forecast area. West and northwest
wind gusts from 50-65 mph are forecast in the Tusas, Sangre de
Cristo, Sandia and Manzano Mountains, as well as Clines Corners
tonight through Thursday.  Wind gusts with the Arctic front are
forecast to peak around 45 mph in the Clayton area tonight, then
potentially as far south as Clovis on Thursday. The potential exists
for brief wind gusts around 50 mph on the far eastern plains as the
front blasts through, but it shouldn't last very long.

Temperatures that fall below freezing tonight on the eastern plains
are not expected to rise above freezing again until Saturday
afternoon. High temperatures on Thursday are forecast to vary around
14 to 44 degrees below normal across the eastern plains, but
generally within 5 degrees either side of normal west of the central
mountain chain where the shallow Arctic air mass is not expected to
reach. Thursday night, low temperatures are forecast to vary between
10 and -10 degrees along and east of the central mountain chain,
with readings mostly in the teens and 20s farther west.  The wind
and cold temperatures will combine to create dangerously cold wind
chill temperatures east of the central mountain chain late tonight
and Thursday, and also through Thursday night as winds weaken.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM MST Wed Dec 21 2022

A modified cA airmass will remain in place across eastern New
Mexico on Friday with temperatures in the teens for northeast and
east central zones and 20s across the southeast plains. Central
zones will be cooler by 5-10 degrees compared to Thursday due to
increased cloud cover from a trailing shortwave sliding southeast
behind the deepening upper low in the Great Lakes. The disturbance
will provide a very low chance for snow showers across the
northern mountains, but with the lack of moisture to work with,
little to no accumulations are expected. Skies will quickly clear
out behind the system Friday night, setting the stage for one last
extremely frigid night over eastern New Mexico. After
collaborating with the neighboring offices, decided to go on the
low end of NBM guidance thanks to an efficient radiational
cooling setup, with lows in the single digits. However, wind
chills will not be as dangerously cold compared to Thursday and
closer to the actual air temperature thanks to lighter surface
winds.

Saturday will be the beginning of a rapid warming trend across
eastern New Mexico as the modified arctic airmass moves east and a
ridge of high pressure along the Pacific coast nudges east. This
will allow surface winds to veer to more of a southerly and
southwesterly direction. High temperatures across the east will
finally rise a few degrees above freezing for the first time since
early Thursday! High temperatures on Christmas day will be a few
degrees within average for late December with mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies areawide. Some breezy westerly winds are
possible across the central highlands and east slopes of the
Sangres due to weak lee side troughing.

The warmup will take a brief pause on Monday due to some cooler
air behind a weak system clipping NE New Mexico Sunday night into
early Monday. Temperatures during the day Tuesday will boost even
more, especially across the east, as surface lee troughing allow
for warmer downslope westerly winds across the region. To give
some perspective of how strong this warmup into the last week of
2022 will be, some locations across the east will be 50 to 60
degrees warmer on Tuesday compared to tomorrow! Meanwhile, clouds
will be on the increase across northwest areas as the next upper
level trough enters the western US flattening the upper level
ridge over the region. Precipitation will begin for these areas as
early as Tuesday night expanding south and east during the day
Wednesday. Beyond, there is increasing chances, according to the
CPC, for a wetter and warmer than average end to 2022 into early
2023 due to an active storm track and Pacific jet across the
western US.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM MST Wed Dec 21 2022

The arctic front has pushed thru KCAO and is knocking on the door
at KTCC just before 06Z. A sprawling area of MVFR to lcl IFR cigs
has developed in the wake of the front over northeast NM. Forecast
models did not handle this well and indicate cigs will dissipate
thru sunrise. North to northeast winds may gust up to 45 kt for an
hour or two along the fropa from KCAO to KTCC and KCVN overnight.
Thursday will feature frigid temps over eastern NM with blustery
winds. A thick batch of cirrus is likely to spread from west to
east over NM Thursday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM MST Wed Dec 21 2022

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
seven days. That said, very strong west and northwest winds are
forecast over the northern and central mountains tonight and
Thursday, as well as the east central highlands as a strong speed
maximum in the polar jet stream crosses the northeast half of NM.
Meanwhile, an Arctic cold front will produce wind gusts in the 35-45
mph range as it barrels down the eastern plains tonight and
Thursday. A modified Arctic air mass will produce subfreezing
temperatures east of the central mountain chain tonight until
Saturday afternoon.  High temperatures will then warm near and above
normal areawide by late in the weekend as a ridge of high pressure
builds over the western US.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  15  41  22  42 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  16  37  12  39 /   5   0   0  10
Cuba............................  19  38  18  39 /   0   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  19  47  16  46 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  20  41  20  44 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  21  47  16  46 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  21  43  22  48 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  29  49  26  45 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  25  44  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  17  56  22  52 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  27  58  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  13  28   9  34 /   0   0   0  10
Los Alamos......................  26  37  22  37 /   0   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  22  34  13  36 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  19  31  12  34 /   0   0   0   5
Red River.......................  14  26   9  31 /   0   0   0   5
Angel Fire......................  11  25   3  31 /   0   0   0  10
Taos............................  13  33   8  33 /   0   5   0   0
Mora............................  24  31  11  34 /   0   0   0   5
Espanola........................  23  46  18  41 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  22  36  18  35 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  19  41  14  36 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  29  47  28  42 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  25  51  26  43 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  22  53  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  24  52  26  43 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  20  54  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  24  52  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  18  54  22  44 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  24  53  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  17  54  23  44 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  27  46  24  41 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  25  52  24  43 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  26  58  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  26  38  21  36 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  27  42  22  39 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  26  41  14  38 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  22  43   8  37 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  22  35   5  27 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  28  44  16  36 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  28  45  16  37 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  30  49  18  38 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  32  46  10  32 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  -5   2 -10  18 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  12  16  -7  17 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  20  24  -6  19 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  24  34   1  22 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  -6   4  -6  16 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................   2  12  -5  14 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................   7  19  -1  21 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  20  27   2  22 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................   5  13  -2  19 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................   6  14  -2  18 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................   9  17  -1  20 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  20  26   3  21 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  26  41   6  25 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  34  52   7  25 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  34  56   6  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM MST Friday for NMZ227-228-230-231.

Wind Chill Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 11 AM MST Friday for
NMZ223-229-232-233-236-237.

Wind Advisory until 4 PM MST Thursday for NMZ210-221.

High Wind Warning until 4 PM MST Thursday for NMZ213>215-223.

Wind Chill Warning from 5 AM Thursday to 11 AM MST Friday for
NMZ234-235.

Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 11 AM MST Friday for
NMZ238>240.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...42