Flash Flooding in New Mexico, August 5, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1212 PM MDT Fri Aug 5 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

Scattered thunderstorms are possible through this evening and also
late Saturday morning. These thunderstorms could potentially drop
microbursts, which is our primary concern. So very strong, gusty,
and erratic wind shifts are possible in the vicinity of any
thunderstorms that do develop. The other concerns with this
activity are heavy rainfall, small hail, and lightning. In
addition, these storms will be moving very slowly with varied
direction of movement. Much of this activity is expected to favor
terminals in central and western New Mexico this afternoon and
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...224 AM MDT Fri Aug 5 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Daily rounds of hit-and-miss thunderstorms will continue over the
next week with the greatest chances favoring western and central New
Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall and areas of flash flooding will
continue to be a daily concern, especially on the burn scars and in
areas that have recently seen heavy rain. Otherwise, temperatures
will cool a few degrees into the weekend, generally near to slightly
below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
The upper ridge axis will be stretched from southwest to northeast
over New Mexico and into Kansas today through Saturday. Convection
continues at this time from the Santa Fe area northwest to
Farmington and over portions of east central and southeast New
Mexico. Models hint this activity will continue through sunrise or
so before ending. Showers and storms to resume by noon or 1 pm over
the high terrain then move from west to east over northern New
Mexico and more south to north or northeast south of I-40. Despite
the ongoing convection, rainfall rates appear relatively light so
will reconfigure the Flood Watch for burn scar areas starting at
noon today. More stable air makes significant progress into south
central, southeast and east central New Mexico on Saturday, leading
to a reduction in showers and storms there. However, showers and
storms may become more active Saturday over northern and western New
Mexico. Highs today and Saturday will be near normal.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
During the latter half of the weekend, our H5 high remains centered
to our east, keeping the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms
along and west of the central mountain chain. Meanwhile, a weak
backdoor cold front moves southward through the High Plains of CO,
entering northeast NM. This boundary will help to increase PoPs for
the northeast quadrant of the state Sunday. With PWATs well over an
inch, these storms will continue to be capable of locally heavy
rainfall and flash flooding, especially on the burn scars.

By Monday, the H5 high then migrates back towards the west, setting
up near the Four Corners area. By Wednesday, it then sets up over CO,
strengthening to about 597 dam as it does so. With the migration of
this high back towards the west, it will help to suppress convection,
especially across northern NM. And while PWATs will trend down
slightly in the presence of the high, the moisture won't be
completely scoured out, and thus daily rounds of hit-and-miss storms
will continue each day. There is a signal that the H5 high moves back
to our east by the end of the week which could reestablish the
traditional monsoon pattern and increase PoPs once again.

15

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and storms ongoing over portions of northern and central New
Mexico early this morning should continue to diminish through
sunrise before resuming over the higher terrain by midday. Storm
motion today and tonight will be from west to east over northern New
Mexico while south of I-40 storms will move slowly from south to
north or northeast. An uptick in showers and storms expected for
western and northern New Mexico Saturday while the east central may
see relatively few storms due to more stable air spreading over that
part of the state. The upper high will transition back to the Four
Corners/Great Basin Sunday/Monday then to the central Rockies by the
middle of next week. Forecast models indicate the ridge will end up
centered back over Kansas/Oklahoma by next weekend, suggesting at
least a couple of days dominated by a more traditional monsoon
pattern. Winds will be light outside of any convection and high
temperatures won't stray too far from normal. Areas of fair to poor
ventilation will dominate the north and west Saturday through
Tuesday.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones...
NMZ208-211-214-215-226.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
212 PM MDT Fri Aug 5 2022

NMZ232-052045-
Eastern San Miguel County-
212 PM MDT Fri Aug 5 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SAN
MIGUEL COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM MDT...

At 212 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Variadero, or 25 miles north of Santa Rosa, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central San
Miguel County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3521 10471 3522 10475 3529 10481 3545 10464
      3529 10450
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 230DEG 12KT 3531 10467

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Guyer