New Mexico, 2022Flash Flood in New Mexico, August 12, 2022
August 12, 2022 · NWS ABQ · 1 event in 1 county or zone
As the upper-level high pressure built over the Great Plains on August 12, 2022, much drier air pushed into eastern and central New Mexico. This led to a downtrend in thunderstorm coverage across much of the area while the monsoonal moisture plume focued across western New Mexico kept conditions relatively more active there.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- $70,000
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
As the upper-level high pressure built over the Great Plains on August 12, 2022, much drier air pushed into eastern and central New Mexico. This led to a downtrend in thunderstorm coverage across much of the area while the monsoonal moisture plume focued across western New Mexico kept conditions relatively more active there. Despite this drier air, isolated thunderstorms were still able to form across the northern mountains although they were weak and short-lived. A rock slide was reported on Highway 68 southwest of Taos. While a thunderstorm did develop in this area and likely contributed to this rock slide, repeated rounds of heavy rain all monsoon season also likely contributed to this event.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 12, 1:16 PM MST, 2 hours 44 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 12, 1:16 PM MST, 2 hours 44 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
216 PM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A brief lull from the monsoon pattern across eastern and central New
Mexico is expected into this weekend. However, the thunderstorm
potential across western New Mexico will remain the main headliner of
the forecast. The Black and Bear Trap burn scars will be an area of
concern in particular when in comes to potential flash flooding.
Otherwise, a return to higher thunderstorm coverage is possible
across the remainder of New Mexico into next week as the monsoon
pattern returns in full force.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
The 12Z PW of 0.74" at KABQ was slightly below normal as a drier,
more stable airmass slides west from the Great Plains. The bulk of
any storm activity this afternoon has been relegated to the southern
high terrain where locally heavy rainfall is still a threat. Near-
term guidance shows this activity dissipating quickly after sunset
with clearing in most areas. Min temps will be similar to last night
which is within a few degrees of normal for mid August.
Very little change is expected Saturday with a persistence pattern
in place across NM. Max temps will trend a couple degrees warmer
with most storms confined to areas west of the Cont Dvd. Min temps
Saturday night will trend a couple degrees warmer as well with weak
moisture advection on southerly winds.
42
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
High pressure will remain the dominate feature shifting the
thunderstorm activity further to the west on Sunday. Much of the
activity looks to remain across western New Mexico and Arizona.
However, as this high pressure continues to shift a bit
southeastward, we may see the monsoon pattern shift more of this
activity back towards the east yet again. In addition, a frontal
boundary still looks like a possibility across northern New Mexico
early next week. This will help provide a focus for thunderstorm
activity across northern New Mexico as it brings additional moisture
into the area as well. Otherwise, the models continue to get a bit
more interesting for next week as both the GFS and ECMWF both bring a
disturbance into southern and central Texas before potentially moving
into southern New Mexico. However, there remains a great deal of
uncertainty at this point with respect to that. Much higher
precipitation chances may be possible if that trend continues.
However, a stronger signal needs to be had before that significant of
a change can be made to the forecast. For now, a return of higher
thunderstorm coverage seems reasonable for next week due to the shift
in high pressure and the presence of a frontal boundary. Overall, the
potential for heavy rain leading to flash flooding will continue into
next week, especially across area burn scars.
PO
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An overall decrease in storm coverage will continue for most areas
east of the Continental Divide thru Monday. Temps will trend warmer
as well with stronger high pressure and less cloud cover. Moisture
will surge back into the area Tuesday as an easterly wave approaches
from TX and a couple backdoor cold fronts push into eastern NM. The
coverage of storms with locally heavy rain and potential burn scar
flash flooding will increase Tuesday thru the end of next week.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
The focus for SHRA/TS will be over southwest NM thru 03Z. Storms
will drift to the southwest over the Gila region. Any direct hits
will be capable of heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds, and frequent
lightning strikes. Quiet conditions are expected again tonight with
a few lingering mid level clouds and light winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 64 92 64 92 / 10 10 10 20
Dulce........................... 54 86 54 88 / 20 20 20 40
Cuba............................ 55 85 56 86 / 10 20 20 30
Gallup.......................... 56 85 56 86 / 30 30 20 40
El Morro........................ 53 78 53 81 / 40 30 20 50
Grants.......................... 51 84 51 86 / 10 20 20 40
Quemado......................... 53 79 54 82 / 30 60 30 60
Magdalena....................... 57 80 57 83 / 20 20 10 30
Datil........................... 51 78 52 79 / 40 50 10 40
Reserve......................... 56 82 56 86 / 50 70 20 60
Glenwood........................ 61 84 62 88 / 40 60 30 50
Chama........................... 51 79 51 81 / 20 30 10 40
Los Alamos...................... 58 81 59 84 / 10 20 10 30
Pecos........................... 55 83 56 85 / 10 20 10 20
Cerro/Questa.................... 50 81 49 84 / 20 40 10 40
Red River....................... 44 78 45 78 / 20 40 10 40
Angel Fire...................... 42 76 43 78 / 20 20 5 30
Taos............................ 52 85 53 87 / 20 20 10 30
Mora............................ 52 80 52 82 / 20 20 5 30
Espanola........................ 59 90 60 92 / 10 20 10 30
Santa Fe........................ 58 85 59 85 / 10 20 10 30
Santa Fe Airport................ 57 87 57 89 / 10 20 5 20
Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 88 65 91 / 5 20 5 20
Albuquerque Heights............. 64 90 65 92 / 5 10 5 10
Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 92 63 94 / 5 10 5 10
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 90 65 93 / 5 10 5 20
Belen........................... 62 92 62 94 / 10 10 5 10
Bernalillo...................... 62 92 62 95 / 5 10 10 20
Bosque Farms.................... 59 91 59 93 / 5 10 5 10
Corrales........................ 64 93 64 94 / 5 10 5 20
Los Lunas....................... 60 91 60 93 / 5 10 5 20
Placitas........................ 62 89 63 90 / 5 20 10 20
Rio Rancho...................... 65 90 65 94 / 5 10 5 20
Socorro......................... 63 91 63 93 / 10 10 5 10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 82 58 83 / 5 20 5 20
Tijeras......................... 60 86 60 87 / 5 10 5 20
Edgewood........................ 56 83 57 87 / 5 10 5 20
Moriarty/Estancia............... 49 85 51 88 / 5 10 5 10
Clines Corners.................. 55 82 56 85 / 5 10 5 20
Mountainair..................... 56 83 57 85 / 10 10 5 10
Gran Quivira.................... 57 84 58 85 / 10 10 5 10
Carrizozo....................... 62 86 63 88 / 10 20 0 10
Ruidoso......................... 53 79 54 79 / 10 20 0 20
Capulin......................... 55 85 56 87 / 5 10 0 10
Raton........................... 53 88 54 90 / 5 10 0 20
Springer........................ 54 90 55 91 / 5 10 0 20
Las Vegas....................... 55 83 55 87 / 5 10 5 20
Clayton......................... 60 91 61 93 / 5 5 0 0
Roy............................. 58 87 59 89 / 5 5 0 10
Conchas......................... 64 93 64 96 / 5 0 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 61 89 61 92 / 5 5 0 5
Tucumcari....................... 66 96 66 99 / 0 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 62 92 65 94 / 0 0 0 0
Portales........................ 64 94 66 96 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 67 94 66 95 / 5 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 69 96 69 97 / 5 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 61 88 62 91 / 5 10 0 10
Elk............................. 57 84 58 87 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
NMZ208.
&&
Flash Flood, Taos
- When
- August 12, 4:00 PM MST to 5:00 PM MST
- Where
- Taos County, 0.69 mi S of Pilar to 0.85 mi E of Pilar
- Cause
- Heavy Rain
- Property damage
- $70,000
- Reported by
- Broadcast Media
- Coordinates
- 36.260, -105.790
A rock slide was reported along Highway 68 between Taos and Embudo. This rock slide was likely caused by repeated rounds of rainfall and not just this one event. Exact time of the rock slide is unknown and is estimated from radar. Damages are estimated.
- Flash Flood
- Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Excessive Heat in Missouri, August 12, 20221 death · 1 event
- Flash Flooding and Dust Storm in Arizona, August 12 to 13, 2022$259,000 · 1.5 in hail · 48 events
- Wildfire in Washington, August 12 to 31, 2022$2.0 million · 1 event
- Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Arizona, August 12 to 15, 2022$214,000 · 50 kt wind · 22 events
- Flash Flooding in California, August 12 to 13, 2022$59,000 · 7 events
- Flash Flooding and Hail in Arizona, August 12, 2022$50,000 · 1 in hail · 6 events
- Damaging Winds in North Carolina, August 12, 2022$50,000 · 55 kt wind · 4 events
- Flash Flooding and Dust Storm in Arizona, August 12, 2022$25,000 · 3 events
- Flash Flood and Debris Flow in California, August 12 to 13, 202259 kt wind · 12 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Montana, August 12, 20221 in hail · 10 events
- Damaging Winds in South Carolina, August 12, 202260 kt wind · 4 events
- Hail in Washington, August 12, 20221.5 in hail · 3 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1038431.