Weak low pressure developed along a frontal wave along the southeast coastline and moved northeast offshore as 700 mb frontogenesis contributed to a light accumulating snowfall with mainly low advisory and sub advisory level snowfall across Northeastern New Jersey. 5 inches of accumulated snow.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OKX wrote it up.
Weak low pressure developed along a frontal wave along the southeast coastline and moved northeast offshore as 700 mb frontogenesis contributed to a light accumulating snowfall with mainly low advisory and sub advisory level snowfall across Northeastern New Jersey. Not all zones are entered as with a warm ground some zones had under 2.5 inches of accumulated snow.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 13, 12:27 AM EST, 2 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1227 AM EST Sun Feb 13 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes well south of the region on Sunday. Arctic
high pressure builds in for Monday, moves over the area Tuesday,
and pushes off shore Tuesday night. The high slowly drifts east
into the middle of next week. A cold front slowly approaches
from the west Thursday and moves through late Thursday night
into Friday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Upped snowfall totals slightly for a swath of the cwa from
the urban corridor of NJ, newd into cntrl CT, including NYC.
Radar and stlt appear to be lining up well with the placement of
the best mid lvl frogen in the NAM and CAMs, warranting the
change.
Otherwise, the forecast is generally on track with some
adjustments to some of the hourly weather elements.
The CWA will be in a favorable area for a light snowfall event
due to strong mid-level frontogenesis and upper jet energy. This
area of precipitation is largely detached from low pressure
development off the Mid Atlantic coast on Sunday, which passes
well south and east of the area through Sunday night.
Snow is expected to overspread the region after midnight, then
POPs become likely across much of the CWA around 4-6am and
continue into Sunday afternoon. POPs then start to taper off
from west to east during the mid to late afternoon and evening
hours. On average, we are looking at a 2 inch snowfall for much
of the forecast area. Areas well north and west of NYC, will
likely be closer to the 1 inch amount. There is a chance that
some of the precipitation starts as a brief rain/snow mix at the
onset, before quickly changing over to all snow.
Looking at the latest probabilistic guidance, the low end
chances has no snow at all with the reasonable worse case being
3.0-3.5 inches.
One challenging part of the forecast will be temperatures
during the day on Sunday. With record warmth today (highs in the
50s and 60s) ground temperatures remain well above freezing. In
addition, some of the 12z forecast guidance keeps temperatures
above freezing (33-35 degrees) during parts of the day Sunday.
While p-type is expected to be all snow, if these surface
temperatures do stay right around 32 or slightly above 32, we
may not see a lot of snow sticking to roads, and may be confined
to just the grassy surfaces.
No headlines are expected at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Any leftover precipitation Sunday night will quickly come to an
end with clearing and cold conditions. Lows Sunday night will
fall into the teens, to near 20 in NYC. A north wind will keep
wind chill values in the single digits.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level shortwave axis moves through on Monday while at the
surface, the cold front with a developing low pressure system
will continue to push farther off shore as strengthening arctic
high pressure builds in from the west. This will allow for brisk
conditions Monday due to the strong pressure gradient between
the departing low and incoming high. Northwest winds of 15 to 20
mph sustained are expected, with gusts up to 25 mph (mainly
along coastal sections).
Temperatures will be well below normal for this time of year,
with highs only in the 20s region-wide. Combined with the wind,
it will feel like the teens during the warmest part of the day.
With mostly clear skies and light winds, Monday night will be
ideal conditions for radiational cooling for outlying areas.
Lows will likely dip into the single digits above zero in these
locations, while most everywhere else will be in the lower to
middle teens, with the New York City metro area seeing lows in
the mid to upper teens.
Tranquil conditions are then expected through the middle of the
week with high pressure moving over the area and pushing off
shore by Tuesday night. A warming trend is expected with the
return flow from the high that will now be off shore and
anchored over the northern Atlantic. Persistent, but
strengthening south to southwesterly flow Tuesday night into
Wednesday will allow for warm air advection. Tuesday will see
highs in the 30s, 40s for Wednesday, and by Thursday, highs
should reach the 50s and even some lower 60s in the New York
City metro area. However, there is considerable spread in
ensembles, by as much as 8 to 10 degrees. Did lean more toward
the warmer side of guidance, but it is quite possible to see
temperatures trend downward, especially with mostly cloudy skies
expected.
A cold front will slowly move toward the area from the west on
Thursday as an upper level trough digs over the upper midwest
and into the Great Plains. The digging trough will help induce a
series of weak low pressure systems along the frontal boundary
Thursday night, which will eventually become one strong low that
passes north and west of the forecast area. Although it is
still too far out, a period of moderate to heavy rain is
possible Thursday night as the low passes nearby and then the
cold front moves through, which will more lift for the
development of stronger showers. PWATs will be up near
1.00"-1.50" Thursday night. Again, this will all be dependent on
placement of any lows along the front and where the front will
actually be.
Conditions become breezy Thursday night as the low strengthens
and passes north and west of the area. Gusts 30 to 35 mph are
possible.
Thereafter, cooler and drier air builds in for the end of the
week and beginning of next weekend with high pressure building
in.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A wave of low pressure moving NE passes to our south later
today.
VFR to start. Snow then develops after 07-08z with MVFR
conditions. While cigs likely remain MVFR during the time it's
snowing, VSBY lowers to IFR a few hours after snow onset. Snow
should end in the afternoon for most terminals with improvement
to VFR for most terminals by late in the day.
Around 2 inches of snow accumulation on untreated surfaces
expected through this afternoon.
N winds at 10 kt or less, backing NNW this evening and increasing 10-
15 kt overnight with occasional gusts to 20 kt possible.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Start and end times of snow could be off by 1-2 hours. Brief mix
of rain and snow is possible at the onset. Chance that IFR vsbys
do not prevail this morning, and remain MVFR in snow.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Tonight...VFR. NNW gusts gust around 20 kt possible.
.Monday...VFR with NW gusts 20-25kt. Gusts subside Mon night.
.Tuesday...VFR. W gusts 15-20 kt.
.Wednesday...VFR. S gusts 15-20 kt.
.Thursday...MVFR possible in showers. S gusts 15-20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Wind and seas continue to gradually diminish this evening.
All waters remain below SCA levels during the day Sunday.
Northerly flow could produce another round of 25 kt winds Sunday
night especially on the ocean.
SCA expected across ocean waters during the day Monday with a
tight pressure gradient between a departing low and
strengthening incoming high pressure. Waves on the ocean will be
2 to 4 ft with some 5 ft waves possible across the outer ocean
waters and more likely for the eastern ocean zone.
Conditions diminish Monday night through the middle of next
week with high pressure moving over the area, then east of the
waters.
Winds and waves then build into Wednesday as the high off shore
strengthens and a cold front slowly approaches from the west.
Persistent southerly flow out ahead of the front will allow
waves to build to 5 ft on the ocean waters by late in the day
Wednesday. 5 ft waves are then expected for the eastern sound by
Thursday afternoon, with conditions continuing to increase
thereafter. Gusts 25 to 30 kt are likely across the ocean
waters, and possible across all other waters by late in the day
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected thru the middle of next
week. A cold front late next week could bring 0.50" to 1.50" of
liquid equivalent to the forecast area. Antecedent dry
conditions should preclude widespread flooding. However there is
a great deal of uncertainty this far out.
Recent mild weather has allowed for weakening and movement of
ice across a few of the area rivers and streams. At this time no
impacts are expected due to ice jams, although such rivers and
streams will continue to be monitored.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC/JP
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/JP
HYDROLOGY...BC/JP<!doctype html>
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</html>The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter reported 3.1 inches at 2 NNE Franklin Lakes and the public reported 3.4 inches at 2 N Ramsey.
A trained spotter reported 3.1 inches in Westwood and the public reported 3.0 inches in Fairlawn.
Trained spotters reported 3.7 inches of snow at 5 N West Milford and 3.1 inches at 1 NE West Milford with both reports coming in towards end of accumulating snow.
A trained spotter reported 2.7 inches of snow in West Caldwell.
A COOP Observer in Harrison reported 2.7 inches of snow, as this appeared to be the highest report from Hudson.
A trained spotter reported 3.0 inches in Plainfield.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Jersey in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in New Jersey, February 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 999849, 999850, 999851, 999853, 999854, 999855.