Damaging Wind in Nevada, July 12, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
831 AM PDT Tue Jul 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures are expected today with isolated
mainly dry thunderstorms along with areas of virga with gusty
winds.

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.UPDATE...Updated POP and weather grids were changed to reflect
current radar trends. Areal coverage of shower activity was higher
than previously noted. All text products have been sent.

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.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 211 AM /

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night

Ridging continues over the West through the short term period.
Some subtropical moisture will sneak under the ridge this
afternoon, which will allow for some mainly isolated thunderstorm
activity in the eastern half of Nevada, though there could be a
few pockets of scattered activity, mainly in eastern White Pine
and southern Elko counties. Thunderstorms are expected to be
mainly on the dry side, with gusty outflow winds as the main
threat. A RFW remains in effect for portion of eastern Nevada
(please see the Fire Weather section below for details).
Temperatures will take another jump today, and will be hot enough
to warrant Heat Advisories in Humboldt, northern Eureka, and
northern Lander Counties, as temperatures soar into the lower to
middle 100's there. Elsewhere, look for 90's to around 100 degree
highs. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be a little breezy
today, especially in northern Nye County.

Temperatures will only cool into the 60's to near 70 tonight.
Thunderstorm activity will wane on Wednesday, with just some build
up/Virga or isolated thunderstorm activity possible in extreme
eastern Nevada. Temperatures remain elevated in the 90's to near
100. SE Elko County will heat up enough to warrant a Heat Advisory
for Wednesday and Thursday, as nighttime lows in the 70's bring
less relief for those without household cooling. Elsewhere, lows
Wednesday night will be in the mid 50's to mid 60's. Southerly
winds will increase on Wednesday and along with the dry RH could
cause some Fire Weather concerns (again, see Fire Weather discussion
below).However, winds will be well below advisory levels.

LONG TERM...Thursday will see a weak short-wave passing to our
north and flatten the ridge slightly. This will bring more dry
southwesterly flow and shunt most of the monsoonal moisture to our
south and east. Although there may be enough moisture lingering
across central and northeast NV for mainly virga showers and dry
storms, mainly over White Pine county. Continued hot with highs
generally in the 90s. Some breezy afternoon winds expected as
well.

Friday through Sunday..the upper level ridge is forecast to
maintain its location around the Four corners region through this
period, with increasing monsoonal moisture and potential for
showers/storms through the weekend. Highs will be in the 90s to
low 100s. Winds will be breezy each afternoon though it does not
appear any winds thresholds will be reached.

Monday and Tuesday...some guidance is hinting at the ridge
loosening its grip over the region as troughing to our north and
west tries to move in. This would likely result in drier
conditions and slightly cooler temps. Highs in the upper 80s to
90s. Winds may be a touch breezier than over the weekend as the
gradient could be slightly tighter.

AVIATION...VFR conditions and afternoon wind gusts ranging from
15 to 20 kts expected at all sites through the next 24 hours.
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible at KELY and KEKO
Tuesday with a threat for strong and erratic winds possible with
any storm.

FIRE WEATHER...A RFW remains in effect for FW Zones 425, 469,
and 470 for today for isolated thunderstorms activity, with
lightning coverage of greater than 15% expected in these zones.
Other zones could see some builds-up/virga with some possible
isolated thunderstorm activity, albeit with less coverage.
Otherwise, expect above normal hot temperatures today with low RH
and some afternoon breezes outside of thunderstorm outflow winds.

Wednesday will see some increase in southerly winds, possibly up
to around 30 mph in spots. The continued low RH will create at
least elevated Fire Weather conditions. However, at this time,
reaching the criteria for critical level winds is borderline and
RFW products are not expected. However, if confidence builds in
later forecasts for stronger winds and/or if there are some fire
starts from todays lightning, that could change.

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.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Central Elko
County-Eastern Elko County-White Pine and Northeast Nye Counties.

Heat Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Humboldt County-
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Friday for
Southeastern Elko County.

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