High Wind in Nevada, February 20, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
223 PM PST Sun Feb 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Winter weather will return to the state later today
through tomorrow as a low pressure trough and cold front moves
through the region. With the warm temperatures initially, a mix of
rain and snow is likely this evening and tonight but will
change to all snow by tomorrow. Much cooler temperatures with
highs in the 30s and 40s are expected Monday with even colder
temperatures by mid-week with waning precipitation chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night. Skies have been mostly
cloudy across the region. Winds have picked up as expected and are
gusting into the 25 to 35 mph range. There are some echoes in
northern Nevada at this time, but not much is precipitating. Upper
low pressure system that is currently spinning across the state
of Washington at this time and will be diving to the south during
the overnight. A cold front will push through tonight and into
tomorrow morning which will be the focus for rain changing over to
snow showers. Accumulations in northern Elko county will be about
an inch or two, with up to an inch in the other valley locations
across northern Nevada. Overnight lows will be in the teens and
20s.

The front is expected to be out of the area by early tomorrow
morning. Current near term progs are showing a strengthening
frontogenetic band along and south of the US Highway 50 corridor.
Snow amounts have been increased across the Austin to Great Basin
Park area through tomorrow with about 1 to 4 inches possible.
Other locations could see up to an inch of accumulation. Winds
will be breezy to locally windy with northwest winds of 15 to 25
mph with gusts to 35 to 40 mph. Afternoon highs will be some 15 to
20 degrees colder than Sunday with readings in the 30s and 40s.

The large upper low will be in western Oregon Monday night with
instability showers continuing over the forecast area. Amounts
across the area continue to be in the 0.5 inch range or less in
the valleys, though some higher terrain locations could see up to
two inches. Overnight lows will be in the teens to 20s.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday

Ensembles continue to agree that the West will see an active
weather pattern with periods of unsettled weather impacting the
silver state.

Tuesday and Wednesday still looks to have a trough moving across
the Great Basin and then off to the east. This should continue to
cause snow showers across NV. Overall model agreement places the
most impacted area in central NV where the snow amounts look to be
the highest. The trend on moisture amounts has increased so the
amount of snowfall has also increased. As of now it looks like
central NV can see an inch or two for the valleys but there is the
possibility this could be higher. The valleys in northern NV are
not looking to favorable for snowfall with generally less than an
inch expected but this can trend a little high if moisture amounts
with the system are higher than expected. The mountains like
normal will be the winners for snow with several inches possible.
Winds look to remain gusty with the passage of this winter system
but overall not to strong with gusts in the 20s mph range. The
temperatures look to be the coldest during this time frame with
highs around to just below freezing.

Thursday to Sunday is still looking to be overall an active
weather period with the possibility of a few small system
impacting the West. However there is a fairly large amount of
uncertainty in the intensity, timing, and placement of these
features that makes it hard to discern specific forecast details.
As of now the general trend is that each system will have a low
amount of moisture. This would keep the snow showers and
accumulations to a minimal while still causing cloudy skies.
Temperature trends look to be increasing as the overall pattern
doesn't allow for cold air to stream into the silver state.

&&

.AVIATION...A winter system will impact all terminals for the next
few days. This will see intermittent winter mix to snow showers
at all terminals. The amount of precipitation will restrict the
visibility but only to MVFR. Low clouds will be present however
the base of these clouds look to remain VFR but can dip down to
MVFR. These clouds will lead to mountain obscuration across the
silver state. Icing is a concern with this system so check the
Aviation Weather Center icing forecast. Winds will be gusty at all
terminals starting off from the south to west then transitioning
to the north with the passage of the winter system. The winds will
likely lead to turbulent conditions so check the Aviation Weather
Center turbulence forecast.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

86/99/99