Damaging Winds in Montana, July 13, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
235 PM MDT Wed Jul 13 2022

.UPDATE...

Added a Severe Thunderstorm Watch from Golden Valley Sweet Grass
Wheatland, and Park Counties. The main threat still remains
isolated winds of 55 to 65 mph. Reimer

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday night...

While a strong ridge remains in place across the Northern Rockies,
the axis is far enough east that the area is under southwesterly
flow. With a weak shortwave moving around the the ridge,
thunderstorms have begun to develop over western Montana. Most of
the CAMs guidance still as the majority of the stronger winds
going west and north of the area. However, the HREF and the runs
of the HRRR since 12Z continue to show a chance for some isolated
winds across the northwest with gusts 55 to 60 mph. However, the
calibrated severe wind potential guidance from the HREF does not
show the potential in southern Montana. Likely looking at an
isolated potential for a stronger storm.

Temperatures are into the mid 90s with a few more hours of heating
to go today, so still looking at temperatures up near 100 for
highs today. The Heat Advisory will continue until 8 PM this
evening.

Thursday should be cooler behind the weak disturbance today, which
will knock 5 to 10 degrees off the highs. With less energy moving
through as well, expecting that the shower and thunderstorm
activity will be much lower tomorrow, mainly along the Wyoming
state line. Reimer

Friday through Wednesday...

In general, upper ridging will prevail over the area through the
period. On Monday, there were timing differences in the clusters
regarding a shortwave moving through the ridge. NBM predicted
record highs for Sunday and a heat highlight may be needed.
Otherwise, weak disturbances will move through the upper ridge,
generating isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon
and evening, and more thunderstorms over and near the western
mountains Sunday and Monday. Meteograms painted Monday as a windy
day and NBM reflected this forecast. Cannot rule out some stronger
storms Friday due to MLCAPE and shear values, as well as PWAT's
above 1 inch over the E half of the area. Very warm weather is
forecast for most of the period. Arthur
&&

.AVIATION...

Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. The majority of the activity will remain west of a line
from RPX to 00U. There could outflows up to around 50 kts with a
storm or two. Low-level wind shear will develop around MLS late
this evening and decrease by early morning. VFR conditions will
generally prevail, but thunderstorms could produce localized MVFR
to IFR conditions. Reimer
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 099 065/093 065/096 064/096 066/102 068/097 062/092
    1/B 31/U    23/T    21/U    11/G    11/U    11/U
LVM 096 057/091 058/092 056/093 059/097 060/094 055/090
    5/T 44/T    24/T    21/U    11/U    22/T    11/U
HDN 101 065/094 063/098 063/098 065/103 067/099 061/092
    0/G 31/U    22/T    21/U    11/G    11/U    11/U
MLS 099 069/094 068/098 066/095 068/102 072/098 064/090
    0/U 20/U    13/T    30/U    10/G    10/U    10/U
4BQ 099 068/094 067/098 066/094 067/100 072/098 064/091
    0/U 10/U    23/T    31/U    11/U    10/U    10/U
BHK 091 066/090 064/092 063/091 066/097 069/094 063/087
    0/U 31/U    12/T    41/U    10/U    10/U    20/U
SHR 099 064/093 063/095 062/093 063/100 067/097 061/090
    0/U 22/T    33/T    31/U    11/U    11/U    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONES
      29>32-36-57-58-138-173-235.
     Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467 in effect until 9 PM MDT this
      evening FOR ZONES 40-42-63>68-141-172-228.
WY...None.

&&

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