A very moist airmass was in place across the area with precipitable water values well over 2 inches. In fact, it was above the 90th percentile for this time of year during the morning hours.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LIX wrote it up.
A very moist airmass was in place across the area with precipitable water values well over 2 inches. In fact, it was above the 90th percentile for this time of year during the morning hours. Although that’s not the cause of heavy rainfall, it’s an integral ingredient need for heavy rainfall. Another is slow movement. Although storms weren’t particularly slow moving on the Mississippi coast as onshore flow was modest, storms were back building. This training resulted in flash flooding in Harrison County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New Orleans, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 3:02 AM CST, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 402 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 .SYNOPSIS... The area of disturbed weather over the western Gulf of Mexico remains poorly organized and is creeping slowly westward. Looks to be a trough over the Florida Peninsula as well, with ridging to the north. Onshore flow has been a little more persistent than expected on the Mississippi coast, and a cluster of showers/storms has been moving northward across portions of Harrison, Hancock and Pearl River Counties since about 130 AM CDT. Not surprisingly, with precipitable water values greater than 2.2 inches on the 00z LIX upper air sounding, isolated rain amounts in excess of 3 inches have been estimated by radar. To this point, most of the rain has occurred in areas that aren't densely populated, so not a lot of ground truth to go by. There has been a bit of a downward trend in rainfall rates in the last 20 minutes or so. Elsewhere, precipitation much more isolated. Temperatures generally mid 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s at 3 AM. && .SHORT TERM (through Saturday)... Moist airmass isn't going anywhere over the next 3 days. Forecast soundings (GFS BUFR) at our main sites continue to show precipitable water values remaining greater than 2.0 inches for almost the entire period through the holiday weekend. This is a very moist airmass even for us. Our sounding climatology for late June shows the 75th percentile for precipitable water around 1.85 inches and the 90th percentile at around 2.05 inches. We're going to spend a lot of time above that 90th percentile through the weekend. With troughing remaining across the area, daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected. No large scale forcing mechanisms, but with the moisture and instability available, we'll get convective development. One point to add with potential for minor coastal flooding in Hancock County this afternoon, if winds become stronger than expected this morning, can't rule out a few trouble spots as the 10 percent exceedance value is about a quarter foot below our trigger point. Will not go with an advisory at this point but will brief day shift about possibility. Yesterday afternoon's discussion is still applicable and follows... With deep moisture and slow storm motions, expect some storms to be efficient rainmakers with rainfall rates in excess of 1-2" per hour. Instantaneous rates will likely be significantly higher. This will continue to lead to a threat of locally heavy rainfall and localized nuisance or even flash flooding, and it's not surprise that WPC keeps a daily marginal risk of excessive rainfall across the entire area through at least Friday. As is typical in this kind of air mass, expect showers and storms to fire over the coastal waters overnight and into the morning hours, waning in those areas as the morning progresses. Over land, expect the best rain chances during the afternoon and early evening hours most places - the main exception being in coastal areas where marine storms could wander onto land in some areas. Given the expected cloud cover and convection, highs should generally top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s, though there is certainly potential for higher temperatures if convective onset is delayed or the cloud cover breaks for long enough. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 70s north and into the mid to upper 70s south, with a few places along the immediate coast only dropping to around 80 degrees. Other than bumping up POPs during the first part of the evening since convection rarely shuts off completely right at 00z, really didn't make any significant changes to the NBM starting point. 35/95 && .LONG TERM (Sunday and beyond)... While upper ridging tries to build into the area, it's not expected to be strong enough to totally quash convective development. Rain chances will be somewhat lower, in the 50 to 60 percent range, with similar timing of development/dissipation each day. The lower rain chances will lead to high temperatures getting a couple degrees warmer, primarily in the 90-95 range as we get into Tuesday/Wednesday. 35 && .AVIATION... Outside of convection, expect conditions to generally remain VFR. Timing of showers and thunderstorms at individual TAF sites continues to be a challenge and will likely require amendments. Any heavier showers/storms will be capable of causing IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings. A few of the stronger thunderstorms may also result in gusty/erratic winds. && .MARINE... Daily showers and thunderstorms will be the main marine concern. Expect a typical summertime diurnal cycle, with showers and storms firing over the open waters during the overnight hours, then waning during the daylight hours. Protected waters will see showers and thunderstorms mainly during the daylight hours. Outside of convection, expect light to moderate south or southeasterly flow resulting from high pressure to the east and developing low pressure to the west. Winds and seas will be higher in the vicinity of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 89 72 88 72 / 60 30 80 20 BTR 91 73 90 74 / 70 40 80 20 ASD 89 74 90 75 / 80 40 80 30 MSY 88 77 89 77 / 80 30 80 30 GPT 88 76 88 76 / 80 50 80 30 PQL 87 75 86 75 / 90 60 80 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. &&
The Mobile radar (KMOB), 91 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:15 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Several locations along Shaw Road, north of Highway 53, were flooded.
Sheriff dispatch reported flooding along Old Highway 49, west of Highway 49 and north of Highway 53.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, June 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1043285, 1043287.