Isolated severe thunderstorms formed near Lake of the Woods during the overnight hours, producing large hail and severe wind gusts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
Isolated severe thunderstorms formed near Lake of the Woods during the overnight hours, producing large hail and severe wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 17, 10:56 PM CST, 39 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1156 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 SPC update did keep marginal risk right along Canadian border overnight. More of a just in case situation. 850 mb warm advection will be targeting southern Manitoba tonight so would expect the cluster of thunderstorms east of Regina to move east overnight. Overall those Saskatchewan storms have weakened, but still there should be some convection moving thru S Manitoba overnight. Chance for severe in the far north fcst area is very low but non-zero. South of highway 2 dry overnight. A cluster of severe warned storms in eastern Manitoba is moving into NW Ontario and clipping NW Angle. UPDATE Issued at 701 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Wind shift boundary holding a bit farther west this aftn, but there is a west wind shift into Langdon, Devils Lake and Carrington. But visible satellite shows no CU along it so despite the heat of the day. Peak heat indices reached 107 at KGFK. Some higher. But trend is now down so let heat advisory expire on schedule. Talked with SPC and feeling is nothing will form in our area. Any storms will have to move southeast from Winnipeg area into far NW MN this evening. Otherwise will be watching the strong supercell moving into far NW ND from Saskatchewan and see how that evolves. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Heat and possible thunderstorms are the biggest impacts this evening, with Monday focusing more on the potential for severe weather. A heat advisory is in effect for the North Dakota side of the Red River Valley and the Devils Lake Basin through 7 PM tonight. Heat indices are expected to reach 103 degrees in some locations as we continue to warm in this moist airmass. Remember to drink plenty of water and take breaks in the shade if working outside! Outside of heat concerns, there are also concerns for thunderstorms this evening in the Red River Valley and east into Minnesota. Most likely time for initiation according to guidance is right around 6 - 8 PM tonight. A weak surface trough is expected to provide some forcing and a place for storms to develop as it pushes through the area this evening. If the cap can be eroded, thunderstorms will easily be able to occur and have access to plentiful instability, moisture, and good shear (30-50kts bulk 0-6km). This means that severe storms are on the table this evening, with hail and winds being the primary threats. SPC has placed us in a MRGL risk for severe storms this evening with this disturbance, and agrees that it is conditional on if the cap can break. A warm front will push in Monday ahead of a strong trough that is expected to provide stronger forcing into the area. Along this warm front, severe storms could develop with large hail possible. Once again, there is concern with the cap inhibiting storm development in the afternoon, and forecast soundings corroborate this. In many forecast soundings, a large cap is present near the surface, but begins to erode away as the forcing comes closer for the overnight precipitation chances. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 There is still the potential for severe thunderstorms Monday evening through Tuesday/ A period of windy conditions and the potential for advisory winds arrives behind the cold front Tuesday as winds shift to the north and northwest. Otherwise, the probability for hazardous weather is low through the remain long range periods. Monday evening into Tuesday: A warm front or stalled frontal zone may remain in place over our CWA Monday evening, and as an initial mid level impulse may kick out ahead of the main trough into our west late Monday evening. Initially strong CAP will be in place and while parameters may support severe potential, guidance continues to show variance on coverage/evolution and whether CAP is even able to break during the evening hours. If the CAP breaks or upstream development holds together we could see discrete cell development that may turn into a smaller MCS (this has been depicted by some CAMs). All hazards would be possible if discrete cells form as very moist/hot BL conditions and steep lapse rates could support high MLCAPE values (similar to today) and a bit more shear as winds aloft increase through the evening. The threat Monday evening is more conditional for our CWA. The main period of forcing arrives late Monday night into Tuesday morning as diffluent flow aloft and the nose of the main jet rounding the upper low noses into eastern ND. Additional upstream development may congeal into yet another MCS (more of a wind and heavy rain threat) that would then possibly track across our northern CWA along the previously mentioned frontal zone. Whether this is elevated or not is still also in question, but even elevated parcels will likely have enough instability as mid level lapse rates steepen and deep layer shear increases. There continues to be solutions that show less activity in our CWA (more in Canada) through Tuesday. The timing of the upper low will also play a role in where the warm sector sets up Tuesday afternoon/evening as the cold front drops into our CWA creating yet another widow for possible redevelopment during peak heating (this threat may also remain further east). PWATs remain high and ensembles do show a signal for 1"+ totals in our far north (30-50% probabilities between GEFS/ECM), but there is a northward trend reflected in NBM/WPC QPF. In addition, strong unidirectional north-northwest flow behind the upper low coupled with the cold front passage/increased mixing may support near advisory winds with the RRV and west Tuesday afternoon/evening. Wednesday-Sunday: Northwest flow initially returns behind the departing upper low and seasonal temperatures in the 80s return. The ridge to the west eventually shifts east again and westerly flow returns. Temps would then show some warning trends, but there isn't a signal for highs as extreme as today or Monday (may near 90 in our south by the weekend). The shift to westerly flow along the apex of the ridge does bring with it the potential for additional progressive shortwave troughs moving into the region along the apex of the broad ridging. These have very low predictability at this range and impacts/coverage details for showers/thunderstorms will carry more uncertainty. This is reflected by ensembles and NBM introduces lower slight chance/chance PoPs by next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 VFR through the pd. But will need to watch for t-storm coverage as near t-storms MVFR cig and vsbys possible. But very uncertain in coverage the next 24 hours. Winds southerly but may turn more east late today in NE ND. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...AK LONG TERM...DJR AVIATION...Riddle
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 903 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 MNZ004>008-NDZ006>008-016-054-190215- Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-East Marshall- Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Western Walsh- 903 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Tonight There is a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms overnight along the Canadian border. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible overnight with hail to 1 inch and wind gusts to 60 mph the threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning there will be a chance for strong to severe storms as cool front moves across the region. Hail up to 2 inches in size and wind gusts to 60mph appear to be the main threats. Heat indices Monday will be near 100. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. MNZ001>003-013>015-029-NDZ014-015-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-053- 190215- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-Wilkin-Benson- Ramsey-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass- Ransom-Sargent-Richland- 903 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning there will be a chance for strong to severe storms as cool front moves across the region. Hail up to 2 inches in size and wind gusts to 60mph appear to be the main threats. Heat indices Monday will be near 100. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. MNZ009-016-017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040-190215- North Beltrami-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-West Otter Tail- East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant- 903 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning there will be a chance for strong to severe storms as cool front moves across the region. Hail up to 2 inches in size and wind gusts to 60mph appear to be the main threats. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1045 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022
MNZ006-180445-
Lake Of The Woods MN-
1045 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Lake
of the Woods County through 1145 PM CDT...
At 1045 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Angle Inlet, or 49 miles northeast of Roseau, moving southeast at 45
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Angle Inlet, Oak Island, Flag Island and Penasse.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4937 9513 4935 9507 4936 9501 4937 9499
4937 9495 4933 9487 4932 9481 4929 9482
4918 9479 4912 9477 4909 9475 4903 9485
4930 9516 4939 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 317DEG 38KT 4943 9513
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RiddleSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1111 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022
MNZ006-180515-
Lake Of The Woods MN-
1111 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Lake of the
Woods County through 1215 AM CDT...
At 1110 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Angle Inlet, or 41 miles northeast of Roseau, moving
south at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Long Point, Lude and Arnesen around 1140 PM CDT.
Birch Beach around 1145 PM CDT.
Wheelers Point and Williams around 1200 AM CDT.
Graceton around 1210 AM CDT.
Pitt and Baudette around 1215 AM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4934 9498 4905 9473 4888 9468 4883 9471
4878 9469 4874 9464 4871 9454 4870 9454
4872 9506 4883 9509 4892 9509 4891 9511
4904 9516 4927 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 0410Z 339DEG 32KT 4923 9505
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RiddleSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1211 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
MNZ005-006-180615-
Roseau MN-Lake Of The Woods MN-
1211 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Roseau
and central Lake of the Woods Counties through 115 AM CDT...
At 1210 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Springsteel Island, or 26 miles northeast of Roseau, moving southeast
at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Arnesen around 1220 AM CDT.
Swift around 1225 AM CDT.
Roosevelt around 1235 AM CDT.
Williams around 1245 AM CDT.
Graceton around 1250 AM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4872 9518 4900 9546 4900 9516 4918 9515
4915 9480 4908 9474 4888 9468 4883 9471
4878 9469 4874 9464 4871 9454
TIME...MOT...LOC 0510Z 318DEG 31KT 4900 9523
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
LynchThe Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 230 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:35 UTC.
4 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Peak wind was measured by an NDAWN station at the 10 meter height.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1049246, 1049247, 1049248, 1049249, 1049250.