Hail and Damaging Winds in Minnesota, August 18, 2022

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
246 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

A moderately strong jet max will dive south late this afternoon and
evening helping bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the
area. Early afternoon satellite shows what may be the mid level
wave dropping south towards De Smet and Brookings with the surface
cool front accelerating a little more quickly than expected towards
I-29. Went ahead and decreased the chances for thunderstorms west of
I-29 and especially near and west of the James River. The focus of
this convection should be diurnal heating and frontal forcing which
means the best time will be from about 5 pm to 9 pm today. Overall
instability this evening is moderate, CAPE about 1500 J/kg, with the
EML running about 7 to 7.5 degrees C. However the shear is pretty
minimal so any severe threat should be very isolated with what will
more than likely be some pulsy updrafts that collapse on themselves
fairly quickly. While locally heavy rain will be possible the storms
should not train and are not expected to move overly slow so not
anticipating any flash flooding threat. PWAT values also about 1.25-
1.3 inches so not excessively high either. After this evening we
may see a lull in showery activity until mid to late morning on
Friday as the main upper level low drops south. The models are in
good agreement in expanding the showery activity from north to south
late Friday morning into the evening. Once again, heavy rain is not
expected, but some locally higher amounts around an inch or inch and
a half are possible. Overall, should be a cloudy and wet day Friday.
Highs mainly upper 60s to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

The upper level low slowly shifts southeast on Saturday. Some
residual showers will be possible, mainly in the morning. Otherwise
gradual clearing and a north wind will keep temperatures a bit
cooler, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s.

Sunday into Thursday should be a quiet period of weather as a broad
upper level ridge builds to the west and the area remains in a mild
and dry flow regime. Overall highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s
on Sunday, then mainly in the 80s Monday through Thursday. Lows
should generally be from 55 to 65. The chances for rainfall will be
small, but by Thursday there are some hints of some energy that
could bring rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon
into the evening. A few of these storms may be strong to severe,
although that threat should remain isolated. The best chance for
the stronger storms will be near I-29 and into northwest IA and
southwest MN. There will be the potential for some MVFR and IFR
ceilings late tonight into Friday, but confidence is marginal.
Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are again expected
on Friday.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
309 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-190815-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
309 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening. Though most storms should remain below severe limits,
isolated stronger storms may produce wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph or
hail to the size of quarters. At this time, the favored area for
stronger storms looks occur along and east of the James River to just
east of the I-29 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.