Hail and Damaging Winds in Maryland, June 17, 2022

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
405 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the area this evening. High pressure builds
in from the west over the weekend, becoming centered off the Mid
Atlantic coast through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 400 PM EDT Friday...

Updated to include svr Tstm watch until 8 PM.

Scattered convection expected along the cold front as it crosses the
area late this aftrn/eve, then clrg and gradually turning cooler as
high pres builds into the area from the NW. Svr risk conts with the
main threat being damaging wind gusts. Could also see a good deal of
lightning as well as lclly hvy downpours in any storm. Lows mid-upr
60s except lwr 70s sern coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

High pressure builds into the region from the nw over the weekend,
then moves across the area Mon. Dry/less humid thru the period.
Highs Sat upr 70s north to mid 80s south. Lows both Sat/Sun nites in
the 50s to near 60 sern beach areas. Upr 40s psbl at LKU. Highs Sun
mid 70s-lwr 80s. Highs Mon 80-85 except 75-80 at the beaches. Lows
Mon nite upr 50s-lwr 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

High pressure becomes centered off the Mid Atlantic coast for most
of next week. Increasing moisture off the Atlantic should result in
mainly diurnal convection Wed/Thurs ahead of the next cold front
progged to cross the area Thurs nite.

The summer heat/humidity return. Highs Tue lwr 90s inland, mid-upr
80s near the water. Highs Wed mid-upr 90s inland, upr 80s-lwr 90s
near the water. Highs Thu/Fri low-mid 90s inland, 85-90 near the
water. Lows each morning upr 60s-lwr 70s. HI values upr 90s-lwr 100s
Wed, 95-100 Thu/Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions to start off the forecast period. Expect convection
to dvlp over the next svrl hrs ahead of the cold front that will
cross the area this eve. First at RIC/SBY then a few hrs later
at ORF/PHF so have a few hr TEMPO group btwn 21Z-01Z. We are in
a svr threat later today so added some gusty winds to the TEMPO
group as well as some lcl IFR VSBYS in lclly hvy downpours. WSW
wind at 10-20 kts ahead of the front. Good news is that the
convection will be progressive, so don't expect any more than 1-2
hrs of thunder at any one location. Clrg and cooler behind the front
with winds shifting to the north and gusting to 15-20 kts Sat.

OUTLOOK...
VFR conditons expected thru the middle of next week early next
as high pres builds over the area this weekend then off the Mid
Atlntc coast thru Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EDT Friday...

Cold front is approaching the coast from the northwest this
afternoon. Winds are SW 5-10 kt ahead of the cold front this
afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to accompany the front as
it moves offshore later this evening. Brief strong wind gusts
are possible as these storms move across.

Much cooler air will follow this cold front, but the true cool
air surge looks to hold off for most of the night before pushing
S into the local waters towards sunrise Sat. SCAs are in effect
for all of our coastal waters, including all the tidal rivers
and Currituck Sounds. Winds will increase from N to S early
Saturday morning. Winds are expected to be around 20 kt with
gusts 25-30 kt. Highest winds will be across the central
Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean coastal waters north of Cape
Charles. Seas will build to 4-5 ft and waves in the bay 2-4 ft.

Winds remain elevated Sun morning then diminish to
10-15kt most areas Sun aftn/night. High pressure moves over the
region for the beginning of the week, bringing light and
variable winds (less than 10 kt). Seas will come down to around
2 ft and waves in the bay around 1 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for today June 17th:

 RIC    99 in 1944
 ORF    97 in 1945
 SBY    98 in 1957
 ECG    96 in 1981

Last Time reaching 100F+:

* RIC:  7/28/2020
* ORF:  7/28/2020
* SBY:  7/27/2012
* ECG:  7/8/2012

Last Time reaching 100F+ in June:

* RIC:  6/23/2015
* ORF:  6/29/2012
* SBY:  6/29/2012
* ECG:  6/18/2011

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ633-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ630-631-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ638.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...CP/LKB
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
314 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
095>097-099-100-509>525-181915-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-
Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-
Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Suffolk-Chesapeake-Accomack-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
314 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hot weather continues this afternoon with highs in the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees  Heat indices around 100 to 104 degrees.

Scattered late afternoon and evening storms with strong to severe
winds are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ102-VAZ098-181915-
Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-
314 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hot weather continues this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper
90s. Heat indices around 100.

Scattered late afternoon and evening storms with strong to severe
winds are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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