Another round of heavy rain showers impacted portions of eastern Kentucky during the early morning hours of July 27th, thanks to a lingering and weakening stationary boundary across the region and a strong flow of moisture advection on the heals of SW flow. Several of these heavy rain producers went across portions of Pike County, leading to two reports of flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Another round of heavy rain showers impacted portions of eastern Kentucky during the early morning hours of July 27th, thanks to a lingering and weakening stationary boundary across the region and a strong flow of moisture advection on the heals of SW flow. Several of these heavy rain producers went across portions of Pike County, leading to two reports of flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 27, 5:00 AM EST, 19 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 600 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 455 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2022 The latest analysis highlights a wave of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms early this morning, with CAMs suggesting this activity to pick up through the morning and into the day. With that said, CAMs are really struggling and a bit all over with where the better axes of rainfall will occur. The surface boundary that brought waves of activity so far this week remains aligned across the northern tier of the CWA and west through Central and Western Kentucky. Soundings identify long and skinny cape, high PWATs (around 2") and high freezing levels. This, in combination with nearly parallel mean flow to the aforementioned boundary, will allow for very efficient rain makers again today. With heavy rainfall seen across the northern half of the CWA yesterday, repeated and persistent activity could create additional problems through the day for Eastern Kentucky once again. The latest mesoanalysis highlights a bulls eye of over 2" PWATs and deep moisture convergence across Central Kentucky this morning. A 30kt LLJ is also apparent on the latest RAP analysis. This is all co-located with 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and is expected to shift east through the morning. HREF 1-hour rainfall rates indicate periods of greater than 1 inch being possible at times through today as well. Activity should begin to dwindle this evening and early overnight, before the upper level pattern begins to evolve some. A closed low over Southern Ontario will be embedded within a deepening trough. Heights are expected to fall overnight tonight and into Thursday, as a secondary front approaches the area from the northwest. This will bring renewed development into the day Thursday, with flash flooding and high waters remaining a concern. This is especially so for locations that have already seen heavy rainfall. Anticipate the flood watch to be extended through Thursday, but given the lower confidence in where this better axes sets up have forgone doing so in this package. With a better signal along and ahead of the approaching front, anticipate temperatures to be cooler Thursday, topping out in the lower 80s, while today finding the low and mid 80s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 600 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2022 We will continue to be near the southern edge of the prevailing westerlies aloft as the period starts. A large closed upper low will be centered over Ontario. The northern edge of the tropical regime interacting with the mid latitude system will result in deep moisture and precipitable water still around 2 inches. Residual surface boundaries may still be in the area, but their exact layout looks uncertain. A better defined cold front will approach from the northwest on Thursday night, and slowly pass through on Friday and Friday night. This will be supported by a shortwave trough rotating around the aforementioned upper low as it creeps eastward. Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast until the front passes and the deep moisture is suppressed southward. By Friday night, it looks like most of the precipitation will be settling to our south (at least temporarily). Up until then, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Drier air will try to move in behind the front, with our northern counties having the biggest impact from this early in the weekend. With the upper level low supporting the front departing through Quebec, the front will lose momentum and stall across the Deep South, in close enough proximity that a few showers/thunderstorms could persist in our southern counties even on Saturday. Stronger flow aloft will retreat to the north when the upper low departs. As this happens, what's left of the surface front will head back north and bring a return to a more tropical atmosphere. Along with this, we'll see an increased potential for showers and thunderstorms early in the new week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2022 Another round of showers and embedded storms are beginning to develop across the center of the forecast area. CAMs indicate this will continue and expand through the morning, which could impact JKL, SYM, and SJS with briefly lower ceilings and visibilities through this time and into the day Wednesday. Valley fog could also impact SME in the pre dawn hours, reducing visibilities for a couple of hours. Given the low confidence in when and where showers/ storms set up, have included VCTS for now. VFR will prevail for most to begin the period, with the exception of SYM, where lower ceilings start this site in MVFR and continue through the morning. Winds will generally be light and variable tonight, picking up out of the southwest Wednesday at less than 10 kts. Any nearby or direct hit storms could bring briefly erratic and gusty winds through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...BB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 449 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-281100- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 449 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorms will affect much of the area, as a frontal boundary oscillates north and south across Eastern Kentucky. Thunderstorms will be persistent in some locations, potentially resulting in flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Thursday night. They should become less numerous on Friday, but will still be possible at times through Tuesday. Heavy rainfall may occur, especially Thursday and Thursday night, which could lead to localized flash flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any issues with flooding or high water. BB/HAL
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 83 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:20 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Pike County Dispatch reported that Ashcamp Road was closed at the 10000 block due to high water.
Pike County dispatch reported that Indian Creek Road past Sunny Fork was closed due to high water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1048103, 1048101.