A cold front stalled near the Ohio Valley on the evening of July 20th. Unusually high instability ahead of the front fueled thunderstorm development late in the evening over southcentral Kentucky just ahead of the front.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A cold front stalled near the Ohio Valley on the evening of July 20th. Unusually high instability ahead of the front fueled thunderstorm development late in the evening over southcentral Kentucky just ahead of the front. Moderate shear helped organize the storms as they shifted eastward and evolved into a line of quick-moving storms. The strongest winds occurred from Breathitt County southeastward to the Virginia/Kentucky border during the early morning hours of July 21st. Storm backbuilding and training occurred along the southern edge of the line, leading to substantial rainfall along the Virginia border.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 20, 9:34 PM EST, 46 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1034 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1034 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2022 More extensive thunderstorm development has finally kicked in over central KY and further north near the cold front. Have made only minor adjustments to the forecast, with slightly higher POP in many locations in light of current development and mesoscale model forecasts. Training has been occurring, and this will be a concern as cells develop over the JKL forecast area tonight. UPDATE Issued at 652 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2022 With thunderstorm development and agitated cu remaining close to the cold front which is still northwest of the Ohio River at this point, the mention of precip has been delayed slightly this evening. The extent of expected development still is uncertain, and the overall forecast for the night has changed little. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 454 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2022 Current analysis shows an upper level trough just to our east over the Mid-Atlantic, while a more compact low resides to our north over the Great Lakes. This low is supporting an associated low at the surface over the same region, with a cold front extending south and east through the western regions of the Ohio Valley and into the Middle Mississippi Valley. East Kentucky currently lies in the system's warm sector, with warm and humid air riding in on breezy southwest winds. Temperatures across most of the area sit just a degree or two shy of 90, and when combined with the dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, are helping to produce heat indices around 100 degrees. Thankfully heat index values will begin to relent heading into the evening. Models are in good agreement around the pattern aloft. They depict the low over the Great Lakes pivoting northeast into Canada through Thursday, with east Kentucky left behind under general northwesterly flow. At the surface, the cold front will continue to push toward the state tonight, eventually crossing into eastern Kentucky Thursday morning. It slowly crosses the area through the day and stalls to our south over the Tennessee Valley late Thursday into Friday. As the front approaches tonight, we will see showers and storms move into the region ahead of it. Hi-res guidance is still not in the greatest agreement on the timing, but generally expect showers to begin moving into east Kentucky from the northwest in the mid to late evening and continue into the overnight hours. Despite this later timing, we will still have a very moist an unstable airmass to work with, with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg in some places, leading to the potential for storms to become strong to severe. Damaging winds are the primary threat, but high PWATs and anomalous mean IVT values lend to a threat for instances of flash flooding, especially if an area sees repeated activity or if rain falls in an area that has received ample rain prior to tonight and flash flood guidance is lower. The showers and storms will eventually push to our southeast into the morning and mainly dry conditions return to the region for the remainder of the period as the front pushes to our south. Temperatures tonight will fall down to the low 70s before warming up again to the upper 80s Thursday. The air will be a little drier though with dewpoints mainly in the upper 60s, keeping the heat index values more in check. Lows Thursday night will be a little cooler in the mid 60s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 310 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2022 We will have a tale of two stories in the extended. The first half of the period will feature a few days of hot and humid but precip free weather around eastern Kentucky, as a strong ridge of high pressure settles over the region. We should see dry weather Friday through Sunday as a result. After that, we will see an active period of weather, as a weather system and sluggish surface front move into the region. The first showers and storms should begin moving into eastern Kentucky Sunday night, as a front approaches from the north. As the front moves in, and eventually nearly stalls out, we will see periods of persistent showers and storms around the area through the middle of the upcoming work week. The rain should first become a bit more widespread during the day on Monday, with this general pattern lasting into the middle of the week. The most active times should be during the afternoon and early evening hours during peak heating, with quieter periods each night. Temperatures will be steamy, with daily highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s around the area. Nightly lows should be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 929 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2022 VFR conditions prevailed across the vast majority of the area at the start of the period. There were a few showers over extreme eastern KY, bringing very localized sub-VFR conditions. Additional showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop and move into the region from the west and northwest tonight. The coverage is still uncertain, and only VCTS has been used in TAFs. IFR or worse conditions can be expected for a brief time in the heaviest rain. The precipitation will diminish from northwest to southeast overnight. There is some potential for fog, but this is also uncertain and will depend in part on how extensive the rain is, and the extent to which clouds break up to allow radiating. A few showers/thunderstorms may linger into the day on Thursday in southeast KY, but will taper off. There is a potential for a period of MVFR ceilings occurring during the late morning and mid day hours, especially over south central and southeast KY, but confidence in this is just modest. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...HAS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HAL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 341 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-212245- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 341 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms are expected this evening and overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. Some of the storms this evening could be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. In addition, locally heavy rain may result in instances of flash flooding. The combination of warm temperatures and a humid airmass will continue to produce heat index values around 100 degrees into the evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Thunderstorms are possible at times late Sunday night through Tuesday. Heat index values near 100 degrees are possible Saturday through Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any wind damage or flooding this evening. HAS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1114 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022
KYZ079-083-084-210345-
McCreary KY-Wayne KY-Pulaski KY-
1114 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Wayne,
southwestern Pulaski and north central McCreary Counties through 1145
PM EDT...
At 1113 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Parnell, or near Monticello, moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Steubenville around 1120 PM EDT.
Mill Springs, Betsey and Naomi around 1125 PM EDT.
Frazer and Delta around 1130 PM EDT.
Other locations in the path of this storm include Quinton, Kidder,
Pulaski County Park, Burnside, General Burnside S.P., Bronston,
Tateville, Somerset Pulaski Airport, Somerset, Sloans Valley, Elihu,
Alpine, Ruth and Grade.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3691 8497 3692 8496 3695 8495 3696 8494
3696 8492 3695 8490 3700 8484 3703 8489
3712 8447 3682 8440 3679 8498
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 254DEG 33KT 3692 8490
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
BATZThe Knoxville radar (KMRX), 149 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:19 UTC.
17 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Tree blown down onto a power line approximately 1 mile southwest of Steubenville leading to local power outages.
Tree blown down onto power lines near the intersection of Clements and Grand Ave (307 Grand Avenue). Dispatch also reporeted that residents saw sparks and smelled gas after the tree fell.
Station KY-PL-8 reported hail up to quarter-size (1.00 inch) approximately 4.2 miles south southeast of Burnside.
Barn blown down on the 400 block of Bullock Lane near Eubank.
Reports of a transmitter pole broken near 700 Dahl Rd or approximately 1 mile north of Shopville.
A roof was partially blown off an old cabin adjacent to Wright Lane. Multiple trees were also snapped and blown down nearby, including one large tree.
A tree was reportedly blown down onto power line along Colts Fork Road near Elkatawa.
A large redbud tree was uprooted and a 1-foot diameter white oak limb was snapped along Lakeside Drive.
Multiple trees were blown down onto a power line and the ground near the intersection of KY-15 S and KY-30 (between the Shell Gas Station and Hutch Automotive). Power outage led to several hours of traffic disruption due to lack to traffic signals. The report stated that power was still out at the stoplight around 8 am and multiple highway department personel were managing traffic.
A large branch was blown down into the parking lot of Jackson's Valero gas station.
Roof partially blown off the Frontier Gas building in Jackson.
A large white pine was uprooted in the vicinity of Slones Trail Park Road and Park Road.
Multiple large limbs were snapped off a tree in front of the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet building, at the intersection of Jett Dr. and KY-15.
Large limbs were blown down onto KY-30 near Noctor.
Sporadic hail up to dime-sized reported along Towne Fork Lane.
Multiple trees were blown down along KY-92 west of Williamsburg.
Many trees were blown down along KY-160 in the Roxana area, blocking the roadway.
Multiple trees were blown down and blocking KY-805 in the Jenkins area.
A tree was blown down onto KY-197 near Elkhorn City.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1046031, 1046014, 1046018, 1046024, 1046026, 1046029, 1046030, 1046032, 1046033, 1046034, 1046036, 1046038, 1046039, 1046041, 1046049, 1046042, 1046045, 1046046, 1046048.