Hail and Damaging Wind in Indiana, May 14, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
223 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
early this evening. Another round of showers and chances for storms
arrive late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. This will be
followed by dry and cooler conditions early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Sunday Night)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

Isolated to scattered convection will accompany a weak frontal zone
and associated moisture axis from west to east this afternoon into
early this evening. MLCAPE values are not all that impressive near
1000 j/kg as mid level lapse rates trend moist adiabatic. Dry air
entrainment and little in the way of flow/forcing aloft will also
limit organization to a few multicell clusters and
redevelopment/quick collapse along any outflows. With that said, a
few stronger cores could pose a non-zero wind threat with DCAPE's
near 1000 j/kg this afternoon.

The boundary layer cools/stabilizes and the corridor of weak low
level convergence shifts offs to the east by mid evening. This will
leave quiet/dry wx in its wake overnight into Sunday morning.

Rain and thunder chances return later Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night as a Pacific Northwest shortwave amplifies quickly east
through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes during this time. Deep
layer forcing appears sufficient for higher end PoPs, though there
is some lingering concern that convection across the Mid MS/OH
Valleys could impact northward moisture transport a bit. Have held
PoPs in the mid chance to likely range as a result, highest during
the evening and early overnight hours. The threat for severe storms
should bypass ssw of the local area late Sun aftn-eve.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

Cooler and drier air will filter in Monday into Tuesday on the
backside of the upper trough reaching the Northeast US. A transition
to quasi-zonal flow in expected into the middle of the week with a
warm front developing across the Mid MS/western OH Valleys. Weak
flow embedded impulses and associated warm advection over the
frontal zone will provide periodic chances for rain Wednesday into
Thursday. Southwest flow then deepens in response to upstream
Western CONUS troughing Friday into Saturday. This should force the
warm front to lift into and eventually north of the area with
warming temps and ongoing low chances for shower/storms given
close proximity to the boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

Increasing surface based instability across northern Indiana amid
strong surface heating. Presence of frontal boundary extends from
northern Michigan south-southwest through northwest Indiana to
central Illinois. Anticipate increasingly deep widely scattered
convection to continue near KSBN next couple of hours.
Weak/diffluent mid level flow downstream to offer only nominal
effective deep layer shear which will keep overall storm
organization in check with mostly pulse/shortlived convective
cells this afternoon, though concede uptick in coverage with time
as frontal zone approaches KFWA later this afternoon as surface
based CAPE increases to around 2500 J/kg. Strong diurnal nature of
convection with decay into mid level debris clouds this evening
before clearing. For Sunday, focus for any showers/storms should
hold off until beyond 18 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Murphy

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
345 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-150745-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
345 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022 /245 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a chance for scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon
and evening today with strong winds and locally heavy rain being the
main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a chance for scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon
and evening Sunday with strong winds and locally heavy rain being
the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Isolated severe weather is possible today and tomorrow. Should severe
weather happen, spotter reports are appreciated.

LMZ043-046-150745-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
345 AM EDT Sat May 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a chance for scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon
and evening today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a chance for scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon
and evening Sunday.