Wildfire in Idaho, August 24 to 31, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
958 PM PDT Tue Aug 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will continue to be influenced by showers and
thunderstorms this week. While much of the Inland Northwest
probably won't get much rain this week, a few spots could get a
lot of rain quickly under slow moving thunderstorms. In general,
temperatures won't be as hot as they have been the last couple of
weeks. Highs will mainly be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: The convection from early will continue to decrease
overnight. Infrequent lightning along the northern mountains is
still possible through 11PM PDT. Tight surface gradients over the
Waterville Plateau will keep breezy winds in the upper teens.
Overnight lows will be in the 50s to 60s range.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: The slow moving Low will continuing
to move through the Inland Northwest. Its instability mixed with the
surface based instability will lead to another round of late morning
and afternoon convective thunderstorms. A slow steering flow and
precipitable water amounts near an inch will allow for these
storms bring heavy rains over small areas. This concern led to the
issuing of a Flash Flood Watch for Northeast WA and ID Panhandle.
The storms can also produce frequent lightning, small hail, and
gusty winds. By Wednesday night, the low has shifted East and the
surface based instability weakens and tapers off the convection.
Highs for the day will be in the upper 80s and 90s. Lows will be
in the 50s to 60s.

Thursday: As the Low conditions to exit the region, the
instability associated with it will decrease. The thunder threat
will decrease in coverage. The extreme northern mountains along
the Canadian border will be the best potential. The thunderstorms
are expected to weaker and move faster than previous day.
Lightning will be main concern. Highs for the day will be in the
upper 80s and mid 90s. Lows will be in the 50s to 60s. /JDC

Friday: A weak shortwave ridge builds over the region Friday ahead
of a dry cold front to move through late Friday night and
Saturday. Friday still looks like the warmest day of the week with
highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Southwest to westerly winds will
increase in the afternoon. Gusts currently look to be 20 to 25
mph, but parts of the Cascade gaps into the Waterville
Plateau/western Columbia Basin could see gusts up to 35 mph during
the late afternoon/evening hours. There are fire weather concerns
given the breezy winds combined with the hot and dry conditions.
Especially for any locations that saw storms earlier in the week
with lightning. Currently only have thunderstorm mention for the
north and central ID Panhandle on Friday.

Saturday and Sunday: Temperatures cool 5 to 10 degrees from the
cold front. High temperatures will actually be right at average
for the end of August, which is the upper 70s to mid 80s. Saturday
will continue to see breezy conditions, especially across parts of
the Columbia Basin, Palouse and into the Spokane area through the
day on Saturday. There could be some showers Saturday across the
N ID Panhandle.

Monday and Tuesday: The cluster analysis shows a ridge across the
region with temperatures warming back up into the mid 80s to mid
90s. The ensembles show a trough moving out of the Gulf of Alaska
and moving towards the west coast. About 15-20% of the cluster
analysis shows the trough moving closer to the west coast, which
would put our temperatures cooler than what was mentioned above.
Tuesday the ensembles are in pretty good agreement of
temperatures, but by Wednesday and even more so Thursday the
potential temperature range is greater, about 10-15 degrees of
spread. For now the forecast remains hot and dry during this
period. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: A round of showers and thunderstorms is expected for
Wednesday afternoon and evening, likely to impact several
airfields across the region. Expect some erratic and gusty winds
near any storms. /KD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  89  60  86  62  90 /  10  40  50  20  20  10
Coeur d'Alene  61  87  59  83  58  87 /  10  30  40  30  20  10
Pullman        55  88  54  85  54  87 /   0  20  40  20  10  10
Lewiston       67  94  66  93  66  95 /  10  20  20  10  10  10
Colville       51  89  51  87  51  90 /  20  30  50  20  10  10
Sandpoint      58  83  57  78  55  83 /  10  40  60  50  30  10
Kellogg        63  84  61  81  62  83 /  10  40  50  40  30  20
Moses Lake     65  94  62  93  62  95 /  10  20  20  10  10   0
Wenatchee      68  93  68  93  68  93 /  20  20  20  10  10   0
Omak           65  94  64  93  64  95 /  20  30  20  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for
     Central Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for
     Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley.

&&