High Surf in Hawaii, February 4 to 6, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
347 AM HST Fri Feb 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and stable conditions with minimal shower activity can be
expected today with sea breezes developing in most areas. The
trades will return from east to west across the islands tonight
and Saturday, then increase to moderate and breezy levels Saturday
night through early next week. Trade wind showers will increase
as the trades return, with a more showery trade wind pattern
expected Saturday night through early Tuesday, allowing more
showers to reach leeward locales. The trades will ease and shower
coverage will diminish during the middle to latter part of next
week as a new front stalls out northwest of the island chain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a cold front is located around 550
miles west-northwest of Kauai, with a 1034 mb high centered
around 1850 miles northeast of Honolulu. Meanwhile, a ridge axis
extends southwest from the high to a position over or near the
Garden Isle. These features are producing light and variable
winds over the western islands, with light to moderate east-
southeasterly winds over the eastern end of the state early this
morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy
conditions across the state, with radar imagery showing a few
showers over the coastal waters south of Kauai and southeast of
the Big Island, and very little if any shower activity elsewhere.
Main short term focus revolves around trade wind trends and rain
chances during the next few days.

A cold front will approach from the northwest today, then stall
out and weaken into a trough late tonight and Saturday a few
hundred miles northwest of Kauai. As a result, the trades will
continue to ease this morning over the eastern islands, with sea
breezes expected statewide this afternoon. The trades will begin
to slowly filter back into the state from east to west tonight
and Saturday, with land and sea breezes developing in the more
sheltered areas over the western end of the state, while moderate
trades prevail over the eastern islands. The trough to the north
of the islands will shift westward Saturday night and Sunday
before dissipating early next week. This will bring a period of
moderate to breezy trade winds Sunday through Monday. A new front
will approach from the northwest on Tuesday, then stall out a few
hundred miles northwest of the state Wednesday and Thursday. This
will ease the trade winds back into the light to moderate range,
with localized land and sea breezes possible in the more sheltered
areas.

As for the remaining weather details, very dry and stable
conditions are expected today, with a few showers possible mainly
over the eastern end of the state. The airmass will moisten up
from east to west across the island chain tonight and Saturday as
the trades begin to return, with showers favoring windward and
mauka areas, particularly over the eastern end of the state. A
more typical and showery trade wind regime is expected Saturday
night through early Tuesday, with a few more showers reaching
leeward areas due to the stronger trades. Trade wind shower
coverage should trend down during the middle to latter part of
next week, as the trade winds ease and mid-level ridging builds
over the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
With a nearby surface ridge in place, winds will be light through
the day and tonight, though east winds will be light to moderate
over windward Big Island. There will be daytime sea breezes and
nighttime land breezes in many areas. Most cloudiness will develop
over interior and mauka sections during the afternoon hours,
though any rainfall will be spotty. Clouds will tend to clear out
in the evening and overnight hours. VFR will predominate.

No AIRMETs are expected through today.

&&

.MARINE...
A surface ridge laying very near Kauai is currently supporting
gentle to moderate east to southeast winds...stronger northeast
winds through the Alenuihaha Channel and surrounding Big Island
windward waters. An approaching front will slow and stall as it
dissipates northwest of Kauai today. This will weaken areawide
winds, most notably today's light southeast to south breezes over
Kauai and Oahu's waters. High pressure passing north of the
islands this weekend will strengthen ridging while moving it north
and tightening the pressure gradient back across the islands.
This will result in moderate to locally fresh trades that will
likely persist into Monday. Strengthened trades may reach Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) speeds within the windier zones around Maui
and Big Island this weekend. The pressure gradient back toward
northeast high pressure will remain tight enough to maintain at
least moderate trades through the majority of next week with only
subtle weakening through the middle of next week. Combined seas
may reach SCA heights of 10 feet across some windward zones
through Saturday with the arrival of a couple of moderate size
northwest swells.

A moderate size, medium period west northwest swell will be
arriving this morning and peaking later today. This swell has
been observed at the northwest offshore buoys overnight and is
timed to fill in through Maui by the mid-afternoon hours. This
swell will pick up surf heights to High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels
today. Thus, a HSA is in effect for exposed north and west facing
shores of the smaller islands. After a brief lull overnight
into Saturday morning, a reinforcing similar size northwest swell
will come in on its heels Saturday. This will keep the HSA in
effect through the day Saturday. The next moderate size, medium
period northwest swell is expected to arrive around Tuesday or
Wednesday. Surf along south facing shores will receive a couple of
small late week bumps from the arrival of very small, medium
period southerly swells. Additionally, a slight increase in short
period wind waves from the east northeast are also expected to
maintain an elevated weekend east chop.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai
North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Windward
Haleakala.

&&

DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Kinel
MARINE...Blood