Persistent dry weather kept drought conditions at Kapingamarangi.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GUM wrote it up.
Persistent dry weather kept drought conditions at Kapingamarangi.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 10:05 AM UTC, 3 hours 55 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 805 PM ChST Mon Oct 31 2022 .Marianas Synopsis... Satellite and radar imagery showed isolated showers over the Marianas this afternoon. && .Discussion... A few changes made to the forecast. Afternoon radar and satellite imagery showed only isolated showers over the Marianas. Surface analysis depicted the axis of a surface trough just east of the Marianas. Satellite imagery showed very little activity with the trough. The trough will move west and while the diurnal cycle may cause activity to increase slightly, and models hint at this, coverage should remain isolated through the night. There maybe enough instability to produce a thunderstorm or two, but the chances are low. Little change is expected Tuesday. Models show a circulation developing to the east of the Marianas by Tuesday night. This circulation drifts west and will be just east of Guam by Saturday. ECMWF did have a circulation also, but by Saturday it will become a surface trough. A trough will extend from the circulation to the Marianas. This will generate isolated showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. This trough will produce a higher chance of showers Thursday, and again Friday and Friday night. The GFS also eventually weakens the circulation in a surface trough by Saturday night. The trough will pass across the local area by the coming weekend, but with moisture lacking, only a few showers are expected. Low-level convergence and a slight increase in moisture will bring a few clouds and an increase in showers Monday. && .Marine/Surf... Ritidian and Tanapag buoys showed sea heights around 5 feet. Models show seas of 3 to 5 feet decreasing to 3 to 5 feet Tuesday, then increasing to 4 to 6 feet Thursday with another increase to 5 to 7 feet Saturday. Both buoys depict a a northeast swell and this will persist through Wednesday night. This swell will become easterly Thursday. A north swell will enter the area by Thursday. The north swell will be reason for the increase in sea heights by the weekend. && .Tropical systems... Tropical Storm 27W is over 150 mile miles west of Koror and continues to move westward. 27W is still under wind shear with much of the convection south of the center. This shear is preventing the tropical storm from intensifying and winds near the center remain at 40 mph. The tropical storm will intensify little as the shear will remain and it is expected to weaken below tropical storm strength by Tuesday afternoon. && .Eastern Micronesia... The 0Z soundings from Majuro and Pohnpei this morning showed a drier low to mid-level, with relative humidity increasing above 550 MB. This vertical snapshot of the atmosphere matched well with the visible satellite imagery throughout the day as Pohnpei and Majuro spend a few hours under a mid to upper-level cloud deck with little to no rain reported in the observations today. Models suggest the possibility of scattered showers at Majuro and Pohnpei tonight after midnight and into Tuesday morning, due to some weak convergence located east of both locations. Current visible/infrared satellite imagery are providing some support to this by showing some isolated areas of cooling cloud tops to the east of both locations, suggesting some towering cumulus are developing. If the cooling of the atmosphere over the warmer oceans tonight increases the instability around Majuro and Pohnpei then this may help increase potential and coverage of showers at Majuro and Pohnpei tonight and Tuesday morning, before the atmosphere regains some stability. Kosrae today has been mostly clear today with satellite only showing fairly shallow cumulus clouds around Kosrae. The MIMIC Precipitable Water (PWAT) satellite imagery is only reporting PWATS around 1.50 inches which is on the drier side for the tropics, and adds support to the continuation of drier weather at Kosrae tonight and Tuesday. For Wednesday through Monday, the GFS and ECMWF diverge on the exact evolution of the trade-wind trough and developing ITCZ currently located near and east of the Date Line. The GFS favors a a more northward track of the trough and ITCZ which keeps Pohnpei and Kosrae in a drier pattern with only brief periods of scattered showers, especially towards the weekend and early next week, while the ECMWF favors a more southerly track which would lead to wetter weather for Pohnpei and Kosrae. Majuro in both models is on the wetter side with greater periods of scattered showers overall, with some periods of isolated showers mixed in Wednesay, Friday and Sunday. Currently, the forecast flows more with the GFS, due to how the GFS currently matches better with current satellite imagery and recent trends. The previous forecast mentioned the possibility of a jet streak (~40-50 kt) at 250 mb as it was present in both the GFS and ECMWF over Pohnpei, around Thursday or Friday. the feature is still there in the models, however it is curious to note that the models do not show very heavy rain or strong gusts around that time. It may be that the GFS and ECMWF have a fairly dry low and mid-levels in the time- heights around that time as well, which is limiting deep convection in the models, preventing heavy rain and the mixing of stronger winds to the surface. Will continue to watching for the possible development of the drier air and jet streak in Pohnpei's and Majuro's soundings, as any change in either will affect the forecast later this week. Altimetry shows seas across the region are around 4 to 6 feet, with some 7 foot seas reported east of Majuro. The primary swell is from the east with a weak secondary north swell. Surf and sea conditions are currently below hazardous levels, but the north swell is expected to increase starting around Friday. Though seas are expected to remain below hazardous levels for small craft, models show the north swell possible becoming 4 to 6 feet with a period around 13 seconds. this could cause surf along north facing reefs to become hazardous. This is still a few days away so there is still some uncertainty with this forecast, so this potential will be monitored. && .Western Micronesia... Palau had some rough weather this morning as Invest 94W, though sheared, became Tropical Depression 27W, likely north of Palau. The shear caused the heaviest thundestorms to be located southeast of low-level circulation and to move over the main islands of Palau, bringing abundant lightning, heavy rainfall, and sustained winds of 30 mph with some gusts as high as 55 mph being reported. TS 27W is now west of Palau and is a Tropical Storm according to JTWC. As TS 27W continues to move west scattered showers will remain possible tonight and into tomorrow at Palau, though the risk of weather similar to this morning is very low. Due to TS 27W's proximity to Palau, the Small Craft Advisory was extended until Tuesday morning, especially for Palau's western waters where winds of 25 knots are still possible. A High Surf Advisory is also out for the south and west facing reefs of Palau until Tuesday morning, as surf is driven mainly by the strong southwest winds of TS 27W, which will decrease as 27W moves away. As 27W continues to move westward, away from Palau, drier weather is expected through the rest of the week as satellite shows no notable features and models are also supported off a drier pattern. Chuuk and Yap are currently partly cloudy with only isolated showers that this is expected to continue through Tuesday. Similar to Palau, Yap will be fairly dry for the rest of the week with only some minor trade-wind troughs possibly over the next several days. For Chuuk, models suggest a slightly wetter pattern as the trade-winds trough in eastern Micronesia move into Chuuk starting around Wednesday and later followed by the ITCZ. Altimetry shows seas around Yap and Chuuk are around 4 to 5 feet, with higher seas likely around Palau due to the presence of TS 27W. Seas and surf at Palau are expected to decrease over the next couple of days as 27W is expected to continue to move west a weaken over the next few days. Around Friday a north swell will enter the region, generated by the storms and cold fronts moving off Asia and into the Pacific Ocean. This swell is expected to increase seas and especially surf along north facing reefs. If surf will become hazardous will be something we will watch for over the next few day as this north swell will likely be a longer period swell around 13 seconds. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && Marianas: Ziobro Micronesia: Schank IDSS: Hong
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Kapingamarangi remained south of the main shower activity allowing dry conditions to persist there through the month. The island remained in D2 (Severe drought).
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1062812.