Guam, 2022

Drought in Guam, June 1 to 30, 2022

June 1 to 30, 2022 · NWS GUM · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Drought worsens for a portion of Micronesia.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GUM wrote it up.

Drought worsens for a portion of Micronesia.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 9:12 AM UTC, 4 hours 48 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 31, 9:12 AM UTC, 4 hours 48 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
712 PM ChST Tue May 31 2022

.Marianas Synopsis...
Gentle trades, partly cloudy skies and isolated showers are seen
across the Marianas. Seas range from 3 to 4 feet across the
coastal waters.

&&

.Discussion...
Latest models keep moisture on the low side through Thursday, and
have reverted to isolated showers through Thursday night. Moisture
increases by Friday and the weekend as trade-wind disturbances
approach from the east. Friday appears to have the best chance of
rain with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing
in deep moisture. Beyond that, have maintained 30 pct POPs in
variable moisture from Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and waves will both be low, and so will the rip risk starting
on Wednesday and persisting the rest of the week.

&&

.Fire weather...
Dryness persists, but Monday's showers knocked the KBDI down to 646,
and fire conditions are expected to stay below critical levels in
very light winds and the expectation of scattered showers later
this week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
The biggest challenge today was trying to figure out how to
delineate POPs (Probability of Precipitation) as the GFS and
European (ECMWF) show a decreasing precipitation potential for the
middle to end of next week in the precipitation fields, with the
GFS showing the GDI dropping to 30 or less during this time
(indicative of isolated to low-end scattered showers). This
scenario has been well-advertised for days now, and this trend is
reflected in the current forecast.

Seas will be pretty tame, with combined seas remaining in the 3 to
4 foot range with winds generally 10 knots or less.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Here the precipitation potential was the challenge, but for a
different reason. The western extent of the ITCZ that's currently
near Chuuk will weaken and lift north temporarily, allowing for
just isolated shower potential at best. This changes by the start
of next week though, as it settles south back into the region.

Farther west for Palau and Yap, the 64,000 dollar question is which
model will be right, the GFS or European (Euro). The GFS portrays
a surface high setting up to the northwest of the Marianas with
its effects stretching down across these two locations, suppressing
or at least severely inhibiting shower development. The Euro
however has the high pressure well to the east-northeast of the
Marianas. This allows for less suppression in the height fields
while keeping the brunt of the drier air away from the region,
with more of a typical trade wind flow from the east. That said,
this model is also less robust in its precipitation fields and
this has been a trend within it as well. Given that the euro has a
lower grid scale resolution (the distance between two data points
in its simulations), the GFS could be onto something. The net
result was to decrease POPs in the middle to end of the forecast
period, which weren't that spectacular in general.

Light seas of 2 to 3 feet and winds of 10 knots or less will
dominate your maritime conditions this forecast period, although
they could push 4 feet at Chuuk by early next week.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

Marianas: Middlebrooke
Micronesia: Doll

Event by event

1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Micronesia

When
June 1, 12:00 AM GST to June 30, 11:59 PM GST
Where
Micronesia forecast zone
Reported by
Official NWS Observations

Kapingamarangi entered Severe drought or D2 as only 0.78 inches of rain fell from June 1st to the 22nd. This is the result of the heavier rainfall moving further north.

Water levels for both private and public water tanks are roughly 30% of capacity. Vegetation is turning yellow.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Guam in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Guam, June 2022

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1033471.