Flood and Damaging Winds in Florida, September 1, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1259 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

A cold front will be stalled across SE GA this afternoon and
evening, with high pressure centered to the southeast. Convergence
will exist along this boundary, as well as along the east coast sea
breeze, which will struggle to get past I95 Today. Showers and
storms will continue to develop this afternoon due to diurnal
heating, with a focus of activity along the leading edge of the cold
front, and along the east coast sea breeze. The flow remains fairly
light, so heavy rainfall still expected, possibly leading to
localized flooding. Brief gusty downbursts will also be possible
this afternoon.

With the front slowly diminishing during the overnight, it will
continue to provide a source of convergence to keep convection going
into the night. Patchy fog will again be a possibility Tonight,
especially in areas that receive heavy rainfall Today.

This front will dissipate during the day on Thursday, as weak high
pressure builds to the east. Expecting scattered convection
Thursday, with the east coast sea breeze pushing past I95.

Temperatures this period trend near seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

Surface high pressure will be located to the northeast this
period, with high pressure at 500mb over area.

This surface pattern will yield a prevailing onshore flow, with
the east coast sea breeze pushing well inland each afternoon. With
this pattern would expect convection to initiate late morning to
early afternoon each day, due to diurnal heating. Then the
convective activity over eastern counties will cluster along the
east coast sea breeze, as it pushes inland.

The winds in the mid levels will be fairly light, so will not have
much impact in steering storms later in the day. Therefore, due
to movement of the sea breeze boundary, the chances will lower
through the afternoons along the east coast, while the chances
increase later in the days toward the I75 corridor. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will diminish each evening with loss of
diurnal heating, with mainly dry overnights expected this period.

With afternoon highs now typically running around 90, while the
water temps are mainly in the lower to mid 80s, there is not as much
of a temperature differential for the sea breeze boundary as
there was earlier in the season. So, while the sea breeze will
push inland during the afternoon hours, it will move fairly
slowly.

Temperatures this period will be near seasonal averages this
period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

Surface high pressure will be centered to the north this period with
a 500mb high overhead. A 500mb trough and inverted surface trough
develop to the east of the region during this period. With this
pattern the flow will generally be from the north/northeast at the
surface. While it will still be moist this period, the north
northeast flow is typically a little drier. Will favor scattered
diurnally driven convection this period, with a focus over inland NE
FL in the afternoons, where the sea breeze boundaries are likely to
collide.

Temperatures this period will be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 12459 AM EDT Thu Sep 1 2022

Fog and low stratus will be possible early this morning for the
inland TAF sites especially KVQQ. A few light showers will move
through KGNV and KSSI overnight into early morning. With shifting
flow, both sea breezes will shift inland today with scattered to
numerous showers and storms developing along the boundaries.
PROB30 groups for stronger thunderstorms were put in for all TAF
sites for around 18-23Z. Convection will linger near the TAF sites
through 02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

A frontal boundary over the southeastern US will dissipate through
the night Tonight, with weak high pressure building to the east on
Thursday. The high will build to the northeast through the weekend,
then more toward the north next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  72  88  72 /  70  50  80  30
SSI  88  76  87  77 /  50  50  70  40
JAX  89  72  89  74 /  60  60  70  30
SGJ  89  74  87  75 /  50  50  60  30
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  50  80  20
OCF  90  72  91  73 /  60  50  70  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
&&