Drought in Florida, November 1 to 30, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
930 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

No updates were made to the forecast this evening. Main weather
concerns overnight will revolve around areas of fog across the
southeast Florida Big Bend and southern Georgia.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

With southwesterly flow aloft, the weak cold front bisecting the
area from N-S will only slowly slide eastward overnight with
marginally drier and cooler air filtering in from the west. Very
little support remains ahead of the front for any precip, so PoPs
will be very low through the remainder of the afternoon into the
evening hours. With low-level moisture remaining in place in the SE
Big Bend overnight, fog development is likely once again.

For Tuesday, dry conditions and mild temperatures are on tap with
highs ranging from near 80 in the north and west to the upper 80s in
the SE Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday Night)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

Fairly benign weather is expected over the next week as high
pressure settles overhead. An abnormally strong ridge is forecast
to set up over the east coast towards the end of the period, which
could have some implications on temperatures and a continued lack
of rainfall locally. High temperatures are forecast in the upper
70s to mid 80s pretty consistently through the next week. Low
temperatures will gradually warm from the 50s this week into the
low to mid 60s over the weekend as moisture increases across the
region. No meaningful rainfall is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

Mainly VFR conditions are expected. However, some patchy fog cannot
be ruled out early Tuesday morning with lingering low level moisture
and light winds. The best chance of seeing MVFR conditions is around
VLD.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

A weak frontal system will slowly pass over the region today with
the winds shifting to the north and northwest by tonight. Winds
over the next couple of days will be around 5 to 10 kt with seas
hovering around 2ft. Later this week, winds will take on a more
easterly component and perhaps reach Exercise Caution conditions
by Friday. Seas will build in response to elevated winds and range
from 2 to 4 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

A weak cold front is currently passing through our area and should
finish by this evening. As it continues east, the aforementioned
rain chances will continue to diminish and leave areas east the
Flint and Apalachicola Rivers relatively dry for the time being. On
Tuesday, weak transport winds will lead to low dispersion values
later in the day. Dispersion values are expected to increase to more
favorable values Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

There are currently no hydrology concerns expected for the next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   58  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   58  79  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        53  78  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        54  79  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      59  82  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    63  87  63  85 /   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  60  79  62  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT this evening for FLZ108-
     112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...KR