Excessive Heat in Florida, June 24, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
858 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.UPDATE...

...Heat Advisory In Effect From Late This Morning Through Mid-
Afternoon Across Portions Of East Central Florida...

...Pattern Change into This Weekend as Rain Chances Return Once
Again...

The biggest update to the forecast this morning was to include a
Heat Advisory for Volusia, Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola and
inland Brevard Counties for peak heat indices of 108-110 across
these areas. Elsewhere across east central Florida, continued hot
conditions are expected, with heat indices 103-107. The change was
made due to updated guidance (namely the HRRR), which has trended
just an hour or two slower in the initiation of any convection
this afternoon (now around 3-4pm). Should showers and storms not
develop until that point, there is a higher likelihood of
persistent peak temperatures and heat indices reaching advisory
criteria. Other than oppressive heat indices, high temperatures
are expected to reach the upper 90s to even 100 degrees west of
I-95 this afternoon, with mid-90s along the coast. Take extra
precautions if you work or spend time outside. Drink plenty of
fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and
check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets
should never be left unattended in vehicles under any
circumstances.

The only limiting factor to the heat today will be the onset of
showers and storms. SPC continues to highlight east central
Florida under a "Marginal" risk for severe weather. Dry air aloft,
though diminishing, could lead to a few strong to severe storms.
Forecast soundings for early afternoon suggest DCAPE values of
around 1200-1300J/kg. Thus, wind gusts around 50-60mph are
certainly possible with stronger storms into this afternoon.
Frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall will also be
threats. However, warmer temperatures aloft (-6 to -7C) will limit
the threat of hail, though small hail cannot be ruled out. SW
winds will prevail through the morning and into early afternoon,
with a sea breeze developing along the coast. This boundary will
provide enhancement of any showers and storms. Storms are
expected to begin to develop around 3pm, spreading southward
through the remainder of the afternoon. Chances will diminish
during the evening hours, though a few lingering showers and
storms will remain possible through around midnight.

&&

.AVIATION...
A bit of patchy mist that developed prior to the 12Z package this
morning should finish burning off by around 13Z. Then, VFR
conditions prevailing outside of convection, which should begin to
initiate north of KDAB/KLEE around 18Z. Increasing coverage by
19Z from the Orlando metro northward will spread southward through
the afternoon. A few strong to severe storms will be possible,
producing wind gusts to around 45-50kts. Activity lingering into
the evening hours, before diminishing by around 3-4Z. SW winds
prevailing into early afternoon, with a sea breeze developing
along the coast. Then, winds becoming light and variable tonight
post-convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Offshore flow this morning becoming onshore with the development
of the sea breeze. Scattered to numerous showers and storms this
afternoon are expected to mainly remain across land areas.
However, some activity could drift into coastal areas and
offshore, especially north of Sebastian inlet. Mariners in the
nearshore Atlantic waters and inland lakes should monitor the
skies, as stronger storms could produce wind gusts of 45-50kts.
Increasing chances offshore through the evening, as showers and
storms drift into the Atlantic. Seas 1-2ft today building up to
3ft offshore overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  96  74  89  74 /  70  50  70  30
MCO  99  76  91  75 /  70  50  80  30
MLB  95  75  89  76 /  50  50  70  40
VRB  96  74  90  73 /  40  40  70  40
LEE  97  75  89  74 /  70  40  80  30
SFB  98  75  90  74 /  70  50  80  30
ORL 100  78  91  76 /  70  50  80  30
FPR  95  74  89  73 /  30  40  70  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal Volusia-
     Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Southern Brevard-Inland
     Volusia-Northern Lake-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern Lake.

AM...None.
&&

Leahy/Rodriguez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
911 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-242000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
911 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
There is a Marginal Risk of locally strong to severe storms this
afternoon. Primary concerns will be for strong to potentially
damaging thunderstorm wind gusts to around 50-60mph, small hail,
and frequent lightning in stronger cells, as they move toward the
south and east around 15 mph. Storm chances will be highest
across north and central sections, roughly from Melbourne and
Kissimmee northward across the I-4 corridor to Volusia county,
with somewhat lower storms chances from Vero Beach southward late
afternoon into evening.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Locally heavy rainfall amounts of one to two inches within an hour
or less will be possible across Volusia county to I-4, metro
Orlando, and the Space Coast. This can lead to ponding and
standing water on roadways and any lower spots.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Midday to afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 90s to near
100 across inland locations, with mid 90s along the coast east of
I-95. Peak heat index values will range from 107 to 110 across
Lake, Volusia, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and inland Brevard
Counties (where a Heat Advisory is in effect) and 103-107
elsewhere before onset of cooling rainfall. If you will be engaged
in any outdoor activity, stay well hydrated, take frequent indoor
rest breaks, preferably in an air- conditioned area.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A moderate risk of dangerous rip currents will occur in the surf
zone today. To reduce your risk of becoming caught in the seaward
pull of a rip current, swim only within sight of a lifeguard, and
never enter the ocean alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Some storms will be capable of producing wind gusts in excess of
35 knots over inland lakes of east central Florida and over the
Atlantic and intracoastal waterways, mainly north of Sebastian
Inlet.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
Numerous showers and lightning storms will be possible each
afternoon this weekend, and at least early next week. The main
threat being thunderstorm wind gusts, frequent lightning, and
torrential downpours.

A Moderate Risk of rip currents is expected at east central
Florida beach this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

Leahy/Pendergrast