A weak, inland lifting surface trough axis over a moist and unstable airmass brought locally heavy rainfall to NE FL during the morning and early afternoon as the trough axis lifted from SE to NW across the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A weak, inland lifting surface trough axis over a moist and unstable airmass brought locally heavy rainfall to NE FL during the morning and early afternoon as the trough axis lifted from SE to NW across the area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 7:06 AM EST, 4 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 806 AM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 .AVIATION... [Through 12Z Sunday] Convergent band with a few showers/tstms along the coast will gradually move inland this morning. Have VCTS at all fields except KGNV. Not enough coverage with this feature to warrant a TEMPO anywhere but a quick shower is possible. An old boundary lies from the SC coastal waters through KSSI to Cedar Key with broken mid clouds 8-12 kft currently. This will be a focusing mech for some afternoon/evening convection and have TEMPOS this afternoon for that area. Then the Gulf sea breeze will be active with convergence across the interior of the peninsula and have the standard afternoon/evening thunderstorm TEMPO at KGNV to cover those storms. Overall a pretty typical summer day with an extra convergent band to kick off a few more storms near the KJAX metro area fields. && .PREV DISCUSSION [259 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Showers are lingering over inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley early this morning while showers begin to form over the coastal waters. Showers and isolated storms will begin along the east coast this morning then spread inland with the Atlantic sea breeze. With east-southeast flow, the Atlantic sea breeze is expected to be the dominant sea breeze while the Gulf coast sea breeze remains pinned near the Gulf coast. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to develop by this afternoon and last into this evening. Cloud cover and early formation of precipitation will limit high temperatures and surface based instability in some locations. North central FL and portions of inland NE FL where showers have died off overnight will have higher precipitation chances and could see some strong storms develop this afternoon. Strong storms could cause strong gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes. Slightly drier mid level air over inland SE GA today will limit storm coverage slightly but could increase the potential for strong downburst winds with storms that form in this area. Tonight, inland areas will become mostly dry around midnight, but showers will linger along the coast and I-95 corridor. High temperatures today will be slightly below normal in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s. .SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]... Active weather pattern continues on Sunday as steering flow becomes a bit more southerly but an increase in Precipitable Water Amounts (PWATs) above 2 inches will lead to numerous to widespread showers and storms (coverage 60% to 90%) by the afternoon hours as both sea breeze fronts become active as they move slowly inland. Heavy rainfall will be main storm threat due to the slow storm motion and above normal storm coverage will hold Max Temps down into the mid/upper 80s. Transition to southwest steering flow expected on Monday as Bermuda high pressure ridge axis builds in south of the region across the FL Peninsula and this will lead to a more active Gulf Coast sea breeze front pushing from SW to NE across the region during the afternoon with mainly numerous showers and storms (coverage 50% to 70%, slightly less than on Sunday). Max temps in the upper 80s where convection starts over inland SE GA/Suwannee Valley and into the lower 90s closer to the I-95 corridor where convection reaches later in the day. PWATs still close to 2 inches and main storm threat will continue to be locally heavy rainfall, but a few stronger storms with gusty winds possible as interaction with the pinned East coast sea breeze takes place along the Atlantic Coast. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Friday]... Southwest steering flow will continue through the period with Max Temps above normal in the lower to middle 90s and Peak Heat Indices close to 105 degrees each day. Slightly less moisture available in the atmosphere will lead to mainly scattered showers/storms for all areas, as the Gulf Coast sea breeze gets a late morning start and heads for the I-95 corridor and runs into the pinned Atlantic/East Coast sea breeze front by the mid-late afternoon each day. Storm threats remain gusty winds and heavy rainfall, but severe storm threats remain isolated through the period. .MARINE... A high pressure ridge extending from the Bermuda high will be the main influence over the local weather pattern through next week. Southerly to southeasterly winds will prevail through the weekend. Winds will shift to southwesterly Monday night as a front approaches from the north and pushes the ridge axis just south of the local waters. The front will stall north of the waters through the middle of the week. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue with increased chances on Sunday as a weak trough lifts north across the waters. Small Craft should Exercise Caution in the offshore waters through next week due to periods of elevated winds. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip current at all area beaches through at least Monday due to onshore flow. .FIRE WEATHER... No significant fire weather conditions are expected through the forecast period. Transport flow will transition to southeasterly over the weekend enabling a stronger and more progressive Atlantic sea breeze each afternoon. Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and tstms and will be focused inland (west of I-95). Next week, a southwesterly flow will become established and push best thunderstorms chances toward the Atlantic coast. Localized morning fog is possible in areas that receive considerable rainfall during the previous afternoon/evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 71 90 71 89 / 40 10 60 20 60 SSI 88 78 86 76 88 / 40 30 50 30 50 JAX 89 74 89 74 91 / 50 30 70 30 60 SGJ 87 75 88 74 91 / 50 40 70 40 60 GNV 89 72 90 72 90 / 60 30 80 30 60 OCF 90 73 89 72 91 / 70 30 80 30 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1204 PM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022
FLZ033-133-161630-
Coastal St. Johns FL-Inland St. Johns FL-
1204 PM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central St. Johns
County through 1230 PM EDT...
At 1204 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a landspout over Saint Augustine, moving west at
15 mph.
HAZARD...Landspouts and wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
objects.
Locations impacted include...
Saint Augustine, World Golf Village, Saint Augustine Beach, Saint
Augustine Shores, Vilano Beach, Saint Augustine South, Butler Beach,
Anastasia and Bakersville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
For boaters on or near the Intracoastal waterway, move to a safe
shelter now! Do not be caught on or near the water.
Gusty winds and choppy waves are likely. Make sure all on board are
wearing life jackets.
&&
LAT...LON 2980 8125 2979 8156 2981 8157 3006 8153
2999 8126 2991 8123
TIME...MOT...LOC 1604Z 097DEG 13KT 2990 8132
LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
SANDRIKThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor street flooding impact downtown St. Augustine with areas of 4-6 inches of standing water in roads.
Minor road flooding was observed in parking lots in Orange Park near Blanding Blvd and Wells Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1042310, 1042311.