Lightning Strike in Florida, August 22, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1218 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022

.NEAR TERM UPDATE...A modest westerly flow pattern aloft continues
across our forecast area late this morning along the base of an
upper level trough that extends along much of the eastern and
northeastern CONUS and also to the north of a broad upper level
ridge of high pressure located across the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitable water values remain very high across our forecast
area late this morning with values continuing to average between
2.1 and 2.3 inches. Subtle shortwave impulses will continue to
translate eastward across our region within the westerly flow
pattern this afternoon into this evening, while a weak/subtle
surface trough/boundary also remains oriented across southern
portions of southeast MS and far southwest AL. Convergence along
this boundary has already resulted in the development of showers
and storms across southern portions of southeast MS and
Mobile/Baldwin AL counties this morning. Some of these storms have
been efficient rainfall producers (we received a little over 3/4"
of rain at KMOB in about a 15-20 min period as a convective band
moved overhead earlier). Additional showers and storms should
continue to develop through the afternoon within the extremely
moist environment and we expect a gradual increase in convective
coverage over our inland counties by early to mid afternoon. We
will continue to monitor radar trends for the potential of
localized flooding considering that some storms will be capable of
producing rainfall rates in excess of 2-3" per hour. Forecast
rainfall amounts remain highest across southeast MS, much of
southwest AL and a portion of the western FL panhandle where our
local graphics currently depict a limited risk of urban/flash
flooding. We will maintain likely to categorical (70-80%) chance
of POPs through the rest of the afternoon. MLCAPE values will be
highest (in excess of 2000 J/KG) near the coast and into southeast
MS this afternoon where a couple of stronger storms capable of
producing strong/gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground
lightning strikes will be possible. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...MVFR ceilings will continue to impact portions of
interior southeast MS and southwest AL this afternoon, while VFR
conditions are expected to be prevalent (outside of convection)
across the remainder of our area. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop across the region this afternoon into early
this evening and some storms will produce heavy rainfall and
associated MVFR/IFR conditions at times. Convective coverage
should tend to decrease in coverage and intensity by mid to late
evening (after 23.03Z) but there still may be a few showers/storms
lingering into the overnight hours. MVFR to IFR ceilings are
expected to become prevalent across much of the region overnight
into Tuesday morning. Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase
in coverage again going into late Tuesday morning and Tuesday
afternoon. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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