Significant clearing late in the morning resulted in the development of high instability across western Colorado. This, paired with upper level support and ample moisture, produced strong to severe thunderstorms across the area in the late afternoon and early evening hours.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Significant clearing late in the morning resulted in the development of high instability across western Colorado. This, paired with upper level support and ample moisture, produced strong to severe thunderstorms across the area in the late afternoon and early evening hours. Severe wind gusts up to 61 mph occurred in Garfield County. Additionally, heavy rain occurred with storms which led to flash flooding and debris flows across portions of San Miguel, Montrose, and Mesa counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 2, 2:09 PM MST, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 309 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 301 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Another active afternoon and evening is expected over the forecast area as the closed-low over Montana remains nearly stationary. The best action has been across the south this morning, but the focus has shifted north as a broad area of showers and thunderstorms moves east across Utah into Colorado this afternoon. A combination of good shear, over 1000 J/kg of CAPE and PWAT value over 150 percent of normal will allow strong to severe storms to develop and continue into the evening hours. The strongest storms will produce gusty outflow winds, possibly large hail and frequent lightning. In addition, heavy rain will be possible in the stronger storms but fairly good storm motion will limit potential heavy rain amounts. CAM models show the best forcing will occur through the mid-evening hours as the area of convection pushes southeast overnight. Shower activity will transition to more stratiform precipitation overnight with embedded convection continuing. Gusty winds will continue into the evening hours around the circulation of the closed-low to our north. Snow levels will be around 11kft, but convective heavier precipitation will drive snow levels down to 10kft. As the closed-low moves across eastern Montana on Monday, drier air will return across the northwest section of the forecast area. However, a combination of weak dynamics rotating around the closed-low and daytime heating will allow showers and thunderstorms, with some possibly strong, to develop on Monday afternoon before diminishing Monday evening. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 301 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022 The longwave pattern transitions as the weakening closed-low slowly moves east across the Dakotas on Tuesday and across the upper Midwest on Wednesday. A drier pattern will set up over the region as a ridge of high pressure builds over the western states. However, a weak trough over New Mexico will provide enough forcing and subtropical moisture to allow late-day showers and thunderstorms across the south and higher terrain on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ensemble blends slowly strengthen this southern trough through the end of the week as it becomes closed-off over Baja California by Friday and is forecasted to remain nearly stationary through the weekend. Low confidence forecast shows a continuation of late- day showers and thunderstorms through the end of the workweek with a higher probability of a more northward push of shower activity by the weekend. High temperatures will remain seasonably warm through the extended period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1151 AM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022 Another active day with overnight showers and thunderstorms continuing this morning and eventually re-blossoming through the afternoon hours. Tried to time radar and satellite trends to first 6 hours of TAF forecasts with general optimism beyond that. VFR should dominate the forecast but passing storms could bring ILS to IFR conditions depending in proximity to the airfield. Gusty outflow winds and hail will be threats with the strongest storms with could dramatically change the flight conditions and will continue to watch radar trends and amend the forecasts as necessary. Lingering cloudiness and showers overnight could bring ILS to MVFR conditions with likely terrain obscurations. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...MPM LONG TERM...MPM AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 418 AM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-031030- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 418 AM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected today with the potential for strong to severe storms capable of generating winds in excess of 50 knots and large hail. In addition, cooling temperatures will bring light snow accumulations above 11,000 feet with snow down to pass level by early Sunday morning. Snow is not expected to accumulate on roadways and therefore, impacts will be minimal. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Scattered thunderstorms with mountain snow showers over the peaks will continue into Monday, becoming less widespread by Tuesday. Accumulating snow is expected to remain above pass level. Freezing temperatures in the lower elevations become possible across portions of northwest Colorado beginning Tuesday morning and are likely to continue through the remainder of the week with drier conditions and storms confined to higher terrain along the divide. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
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</html>The Grand Junction radar (KGJX), 32 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:31 UTC.
2 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind, 1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding occurred as a result of heavy rain from thunderstorms on the lower end of the No Thoroughfare Trail between D Road and Monument Road in Grand Junction.
Heavy rain from thunderstorms resulted in flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Montrose County, focused along Colorado Highway 90 south of Naturita.
A peak wind gust of 61 MPH was measured by the automated weather station at the Rifle Garfield County Airport.
Rocks of various sizes fell across the road over much of Colorado Highway 145 between Norwood and Telluride as a result of heavy rain from showers and thunderstorms.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, October 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1051512, 1051513, 1051510, 1051511.