Damaging Winds in Colorado, May 27, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
230 PM MDT Fri May 27 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM MDT Fri May 27 2022

Key Messages:

1) Critical Fire Weather conditions are expected across the San Luis
Valley, the western mountains, and eastern plains tomorrow.

Tonight... Tonight will be relatively quiet across southern
Colorado. The HREF and SREF ensemble models are in strong agreement
that a large trough will start digging southeastward toward Colorado
overnight. As the system starts to approach, synoptic ascent and
winds aloft will begin to increase across the region. With the
increasing synoptic ascent, and better orographic forcing from the
stronger winds aloft, high level cirrus clouds will overspread much
of southern Colorado tonight. Otherwise though, the forecast area
will remain dry and above average overnight. As westerly winds aloft
start to increase, downsloping winds will become stronger. These
downsloping winds will allow for compressional warming to take
place, which will keep most of southern Colorado 5-10°F above
average. The plains falling into the low to mid 50s, the valleys
dropping into the mid 30s to low 40s, and the mountains cooling into
the 30s.

Tomorrow... During the day Saturday, the aforementioned trough will
continue to trek southeastward. Synoptic ascent and winds aloft will
continue to increase ahead of the approaching system. Like
overnight, the synoptic ascent and strong orographics will induce
widespread high level cirrus clouds through most of the day. Also
with the stronger winds aloft, as diurnal mixing becomes
established, these stronger winds will become mixed down to the
surface. Winds are expected to be gusting to around 30-40 kts at
lower elevations, with 40-55kts at higher elevations. As the system
does start pushing over the region, drier air will be advected
across southern Colorado, and given the stronger winds, will become
also become mixed down to the surface. Given expected hot
temperatures tomorrow, and drier air overspreading the area, RH
values will drop to 10% or less for lower elevations, and to around
15% at higher elevations. With the combination of strong winds and
low RH, meteorologically, Critical Fire Weather conditions are
expected across all of southern Colorado. With that said though,
most areas along the eastern and central mountains saw appreciable
moisture over this past weekend, and grasses and most flora in those
areas may not be as dry as compared to what they are at other
locations across southern Colorado. Because of this, the highest
confidence in overall fire conditions will be within the San Luis
Valley, the San Juan and La Garita Mountains, and the eastern
plains; see the dedicated Fire Section below for more details.
Otherwise across southern Colorado, expect dry and much above
average temperatures. Strong downsloping winds will keep the
compressional warming in place across the forecast area, and
temperatures will be 10-20°F above average. The plains will heat up
into the 90s, and possibly low 100s. The valleys will warm into the
mid 70s to low 80s, and the mountains will rise into the 50s to low
60s.|

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 228 PM MDT Fri May 27 2022

Key Messages:

1) Critical fire weather conditions continue for Sunday, especially
in the San Luis Valley. See detailed fire weather discussion below.

2) High elevation snow and possible thunderstorms on Sunday and
Monday for the Continental Divide, the Pikes Peak region, and the
Palmer Divide.

3) Upslope moisture with cooler temperatures for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

4) Ridging and a warming trend set up for Thursday and Friday.

Saturday Night through Monday..

A large upper trough continues to advance southeastward into the
Great Basin through Sunday and Monday, bringing with it cooler
temperatures, southwesterly winds, and chances for precipitation.
With this placement, most of the available moisture stays off to our
north and west, but we should see some showers and thunderstorms
developing in our central mountains and moving into the Pikes Peak
Region and the Palmer Divide. This could include some light snow in
higher elevations as well. Monday's setup looks very similar, with a
weak cold front pushing through to our northwest, bringing continued
chances for showers and weak thunderstorms through the same areas as
Sunday. Dryline thunderstorm activity on both days looks to stay on
the Kansas side of our eastern border.

Critical fire weather conditions will likely continue into Monday,
especially for the San Luis Valley, with strong southwesterlies
continuing into next week. See detailed fire discussion below.
Potential fire starts from lightning in the mountains will need to
be monitored closely through this period as well.

Tuesday and Wednesday..

Ensembles start to deviate on timing during this period, but the
general consensus is to keep us fairly dry as this system weakens
somewhat and pushes off to our northeast early Tuesday. Behind the
initial cold front, Tuesday will likely be the coolest day of the
week with daytime highs about 5-10 degrees below normal for this
time of year. Another wave looks to pass through sometime late
Tuesday/early Wednesday, when we could see some better chances for
precipitation and even some upslope moisture through Wednesday. The
GFS and EC have significantly higher pops during this timeframe than
the the NBM, but we should see some much needed precipitation either
way. Northerly and easterly winds along with improved humidity
values behind this cold front should bring some relief for fire
weather concerns on both days as well, especially for the plains.

Thursday and Friday..

Upslope moisture looks to be cut off by Thursday as a general trend
towards ridging starts to set up for the remainder of the week.
Daytime high temperatures should rebound back to around normal for
Thursday, and slightly above normal by Friday, with generally quiet
weather for both days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 228 PM MDT Fri May 27 2022

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. For KCOS and KPUB Showers and thunderstorms will continue to
push east during the early evening, and exit the area by mid
evening. Remnant outflows could still cause sudden changes in wind
speeds and direction through the evening. For all three TAF sites,
winds will lessen overnight, but will start to quickly become
southwesterly and increase in magnitude tomorrow morning. High level
clouds will persist through this TAF period, with mid level clouds
increasing tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Fri May 27 2022

Background fuel conditions across the Interstate-25 corridor and
eastward across the plains continue to evolve. This is an area that
experienced copious amounts of precipitation during the past week,
with upwards of 250-500 percent of normal precipitation during that
time period across portions of the region. In many circumstances,
this precipitation would result in substantial mitigation to the
subsequent fire-weather risk, from increasing fuel moisture and
green-up. However, in this particular case, fuels do not appear to
be responding as much as would be expected given the aforementioned
amount of precipitation across the NWS Pueblo County Warning Area.
This could be the result of a combination of antecedent significant
drought, aided by an extended duration of very warm and dry
conditions prior to the recent precipitation event especially in
April. While green-up has occurred in some areas, fuels across
southeast Colorado appear to reflect a distinctly less-green
character, overall, compared to areas farther north, and also west
across the eastern mountains, based on the latest observed indices.
Moreover, fuel moisture in northern El Paso County -- even in
locations where over a foot of snow fell about a week ago -- have
been observed as significantly declining during the past two days
following the cessation of precipitation.

Given the previously mentioned factors, there appears to be growing
concern that fuel dryness in some areas across southeastern Colorado
(even where recent precipitation was abundant) will be adequate to
support potential extreme fire-behavior including rapid fire spread,
upon coordination with land management agencies. This would apply
especially this weekend, when west-southwesterly winds gusting
upwards of 40-50 mph overtake single digit relative humidity values
materializing across the Interstate-25 corridor vicinity eastward
across the southeast plains. And given expected very warm to hot
temperatures in the 80s and 90s, these conditions could contribute
to further drying of fuels.

Ultimately, there may be notable variability across the region in
fuel states -- resulting from differences in fuel responsiveness to
the recent precipitation. However, given the expected critical
meteorological conditions across southeast Colorado, and the growing
concern for the influence of long-term drought to support favorable
fuels for fire spread upon coordination with land management
agencies, fire-weather highlights have been initiated for this
weekend over southeastern Colorado. For the southeast Colorado
plains, Interstate-25 corridor, and then westward through the
Arkansas River Valley in Fremont County below 8000 feet, a Red Flag
Warning has been issued for Saturday late morning into the evening,
and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday afternoon and
early evening. Fire-weather highlights have not been issued over the
eastern/central mountains where fuel moisture remains notably
elevated.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for COZ222>224-
226>237.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for COZ222-224-226>237.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ223-224.

&&

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...EHR/COHEN
AVIATION...SIMCOE
FIRE WEATHER...COHEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1232 PM MDT Fri May 27 2022

COZ058>089-093>099-281830-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1232 PM MDT Fri May 27 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to occur across the
eastern San Juan and La Garita mountains into the San Luis Valley
this afternoon and early evening.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the mountains and I-25
corridor region this afternoon and early evening. The primary concern
will be isolated cloud to ground lightning flashes and gusty winds
of 40 to 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

On Saturday and through Monday, there will be more widespread
critical fire weather conditions across the southwest mountains
through the San Luis Valley and out across the southeast plains
during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Thunderstorms and some high elevation snow will be possible over
the central mountains early Sunday morning. More widespread
thunderstorms may occur over the southern mountains and along the
adjacent plains during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday
and Monday. Little to no snow accumulations are expected for the
higher elevations, however a more convective shower and or
thunderstorm may produce a brief period of heavy and rapidly
accumulating snow.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible over
the far eastern plains late Tuesday evening, with the main threat
being strong and gusty outflow winds, and large hail. More
marginal thunderstorms will be possible over the eastern mountains
and along the I-25 corridor late Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible again for the eastern
mountains and plains on Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

SIMCOE/STEWARD