Precipitable water values in excess of 150% of normal occurred across western Colorado as monsoon moisture continued to stream into the region. As a result, widespread showers and thunderstorms developed.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Precipitable water values in excess of 150% of normal occurred across western Colorado as monsoon moisture continued to stream into the region. As a result, widespread showers and thunderstorms developed. Weak steering flow aloft resulted in slow moving storms. Additionally, storms produced heavy rain. Flash flooding and a debris flow occurred in Ouray County as a result of the heavy rain. Another localized debris flow occurred in Rio Blanco County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 27, 10:49 AM MST, 3 hours 11 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1149 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 405 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Satellite imagery shows a deep low over Manitoba and Ontario with the trough dropping down along the front range of the Northern Rockies and extending east across the northern Plains States to the Great Lakes, and the subtropical high across the Southern States into New Mexico. Low level motions of the cloud debris indicate an MCV in south-central Utah that has kicked off a few thunderstorms along its eastern edge in northern Arizona and southern Utah, a possible omen of storms later today. There may be a second MCV along the Colorado-New Mexico border southeast of Durango that could spawn slow moving thunderstorms producing heavy rain in the Four Corners area and southern Colorado later this morning and afternoon. The latest GJT soundings continue to measure deep moisture in the region with PW right at the one inch mark or greater. The GFS and European ensembles show deep monsoonal moisture pushing north over eastern Utah and Western Colorado to the Grand Valley with PWats two sigma above normal by late this afternoon, and PWats up to three sigma above normal pushing north to the Wyoming border by Thursday afternoon. Look for convective activity to increase through the morning and early afternoon hours with scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the southern half of the GJT CWA, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms extending to the north along and just north of the I-70 corridor. Storm coverage will decrease as we go into the evening hours with showers ending to the north and a few scattered showers and possible thunderstorms continuing overnight in the San Juan Mountains and to the west along the New Mexico and Arizona borders. With the deep moisture in place, indications of MCVs in the area to support convective activity and saturated soils from the heavy rains that have fallen over the last few days, the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch across the southern areas of the CWA including southeastern Utah east through the San Juan Mountains. Residents and travelers to these areas should prepare for potential flood impacts, and should stay up to date with information from local authorities. Be advised, the National Weather Service weather radar is down for maintenance today through Tuesday, 2 August, and the National Weather Service asks for your help tracking storms in the region and their impacts. We rely on reports from the public to help fill gaps left by the radar being down. Please notify local authorities of any observed flooding and impacts. Your reports can save lives! Thursday will see the deep moisture push north across the region with widespread showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain in the region and scattered storms dropping into the lower valleys. These storms will tend to be slow moving and capable of producing heavy rain making flash flooding the primary risk again Thursday. Northern Colorado will be under the right entrance region of a jet streak centered over Nebraska and Iowa, that will help provide the dynamics for convection in the region. Will continue to assess the conditions to determine if a Flood Watch will be necessary Thursday. Stay tuned for updates. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 405 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 The messy, unsettled weather pattern will dominate much of the long term period with abundant monsoon moisture and several embedded disturbances keeping things more than active. PWATs will remain abnormally high from Thursday night onwards with the paired lift from a passing shortwave allowing nocturnal showers and thunderstorms to linger overnight. The likely area to experience overnight activity will be the Four Corners region where the best moisture resides, though outflow boundaries from earlier convection will determine coverage elsewhere. Additionally, moisture will advect north into eastern Utah and western Colorado on Friday as the region remains sandwiched in between the area of high pressure over the western CONUS and the subtropical high over the Southern Plains. PWATs will exceed 175% of normal over the southern tier of the forecast area with values in the 125 to 150% of normal range further north. Therefore, expect another day of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity in response to the increased moisture and as yet another embedded wave treks across the Continental Divide in the late afternoon/early evening hours. Saturday will see similar storm coverage as the synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged. Given the prolonged period of daily showers and thunderstorms, all of which will be capable of producing heavy rain in the well-primed atmosphere, flash flooding will be a big concern into the weekend. This is something that will continue to be honed in on with each forecast package. As always during the monsoon season, please check the latest forecast and highlights before making any outdoor plans or when heading out for the day. On Sunday, the upper level ridge will center itself over the Great Basin as it expands further east. This will cut off our tap to the monsoon moisture as drier air infiltrates from the west. As we've seen with previous events this season, residual moisture will be slow to erode and will certainly be enough to generate diurnal convection, particularly over the higher terrain as orographics come into play. Coverage will become more isolated to scattered over the lower elevations, most notably over the northern zones as opposed to the valleys of southwest Colorado. This gradual drying trend will continue as we head into early next week as the high's center progresses eastward. Guidance shows the center settling over our CWA on Monday afternoon with recycled moisture once again fueling orographic showers and storms. As far as Tuesday is concerned, the high looks to track east of the Divide, putting our region under the favorable southerly flow on the backside of the ridge. This increase in moisture would result in an uptick in storm coverage with this trend potentially continuing into the latter half of the week. Temperatures through the long term period will generally trend cooler than normal each afternoon in response to increased clouds and showers. Overnight lows will remain on the mild side with values sitting several degrees above normal. Highs will moderate back to near normal by Monday before cooling once again as moisture increases on Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1144 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop across southwest Colorado today. Gusty outflows, heavy rain and small hail will be possible with a few storms. Utah terminals and northwest Colorado will remain under VFR conditions through the period. Showers will dissipate after sunset. A few storms may linger across the higher terrain overnight, with VFR conditions returning by daybreak. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Flood Watch through this evening for COZ018>023. UT...Flood Watch through this evening for UTZ022-028-029. && SHORT TERM...DB LONG TERM...MMS AVIATION...LTB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 443 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-281045- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 443 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop over the higher elevations from the southern border to just north of the I-70 corridor by late this morning. Heavy rain will be the main threat with storms today. Generally dry conditions are expected farther north. Storms will diminish near or shortly after sunset with scattered showers continuing overnight across the San Juan Mountains west into southern Utah. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms across eastern Utah and Western Colorado Thursday and Friday with heavy rain. Look for a somewhat drying trend northwest to southeast Saturday through Monday with showers and thunderstorms developing each day favoring the mountains, particularly across the south. Heavy rain will continue to be the main threat with storms. High pressure slides overhead early next week but recycled moisture will continue to fuel afternoon storms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The National Weather Service radar is down for maintenance through Tuesday, 2 August. Spotter activation may be needed today and tonight to help track stronger storms in the area while the radar is down. Otherwise, spotters are always encouraged to relay rainfall amounts or any observed flooding to the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
A mudslide occurred along County Road 5 near mile marker 12 near Piceance Creek as a result of heavy rain from thunderstorms.
Heavy rain from thunderstorms resulted in flash flooding and a debris flow across County Road 361, specifically in the Senator Gulch/Yankee Boy Basin area. Ouray County Road and Bridge reported a critical Hilfiker wall and culvert were significantly damaged as a result of the mudslide. Approximately 50 people were unable to leave the Yankee Boy Basin area until the debris was cleared.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1035800, 1033474.