Wildfire in California, September 7 to 25, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
307 PM PDT Wed Sep 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A ridge of high pressure will give way to a weak
trough with elevated instability today. This trough will also
bring about critical fire weather conditions to many inland areas.
The ridge of high pressure redevelops quickly on Friday with east
winds and additional hot temperatures and fire weather concerns
this weekend.

Key Points:

* Heat: Increased risk of heat related illnesses for most of the
  West Side this weekend. Stay hydrated with water, take frequent
  breaks in air conditioning, and check in on neighbors and
  friends without AC. Additionally, some medications may make you
  more prone to heat illnesses, talk to your doctor/pharmacist for
  more information.

* FIRE WEATHER: Hot, Dry, windy, and unstable conditions will
  result in increased fire weather concerns over the next couple
  of days. Avoid using any equipment that can cause sparks and be
  sure to follow all fire restrictions. There is a 15 percent
  chance of dry thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

* SMOKE/WILDFIRES: Smoke from area wildfires will continue to
  impact air quality for many areas. Of note, smoke and air
  quality levels will fluctuate and depend on just how much smoke
  is output from these fires, the wind directions/speeds and also
  ventilation.

.DISCUSSION...

Radar has been showing a few weak cells across the region this
morning through this afternoon. A few cells have put down roughly
50 cloud to ground flashes just this afternoon with up to 150
cloud to ground flashes since 5 am this morning. The atmosphere
hasn't changed much except for a cold front nudging southwards
helping in the weak vertical lift ongoing at this time. There is
some weak potential instability out there as of this afternoon all
the way out to the ocean. We wouldn't be surprised to see a few
cloud to ground flashes out there, although most of the action
should be around Siskiyou, Lake and Klamath Counties into the
evening hours.

It's also worth noting KMAX is picking up on a smoke plume from
the VanMeter Fire just south of Dairy and west of Bonanza near
the Klamath Falls area. This fire likely started this afternoon
as some lightning was around that area. This is the only smoke
plume showing up on radar as of writing this AFD.

Aside from thunderstorms, temperatures are still on the warm side.
We are expecting to hit our high of 100 today in Medford and that
will put an end to this phase of heat. Temperatures are expected
to trend lower into Thursday as highs vary from lower 80's east of
the Cascades and in the Umpqua Basin with some 70's along the
coast. Around the Rogue Valley and sections of Northern
California, highs as expected in the lower to mid 90's with Somes
Bar right around 104. The heat risk is notably lower, so we
didn't extend the current heat products out. However, we did issue
a new heat advisory for Friday into Saturday.

High temperatures this weekend will be within a degree of record
highs in Medford, Alturas and Mount Shasta City. This is due to a
thermal trough building along the coast and then retreating
inland. Usually when this happens, it becomes rather hot across
many of our inland valleys and exceeds our high temperature
forecasts from time to time. In any case, we issued a heat
advisory due to the high daytime temperatures. Low temperatures
won't be as bad, so heat risk remains in the moderate range and
will primarily impact the heat sensitive and those without access
to cooling.

After Saturday, our weather concerns are lower as temperatures
trend downwards and offshore flow decreases. Models anticipate an
upper level low and surface low will develop sometime around
Sunday with southerly flow strengthening across the region.

Heading into next week, some of the energy from Hurricane Kay is
anticipated to move into sections of eastern Oregon at some point.
This moisture might arrive ahead of a shortwave and bring us some
shower and thunderstorm potential around next week. Right now, the
extended models expect the thunderstorm potential to be pretty
low. However, we wouldn't be surprised to see more thunderstorms
towards the start of next week with moist tropical air heading
into the region.

-Smith

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z TAFs...Over the coastal waters and along the
coast...VFR conditions prevail, but areas of IFR cigs/vsbys in low
clouds and fog will develop overnight into early Thursday morning.
Inland roughly from Western Siskiyou county up the Cascades and
eastward mostly isolated thunderstorms are expected into the
evening. These thunderstorms will have high bases and no higher
terrain obscurations are expected except for Mt Shasta. -Sven

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Wednesday 07 September 2022...A strong
thermal trough along the coast will weaken Friday. Strong north
winds and steep to very steep seas will persist into Friday. The
strongest winds and steepest seas will occur south of Cape Blanco in
the afternoons and evenings. Gale force winds will occur south of
Nesika Beach Wednesday through Friday morning. Winds will weaken
Friday, but steep to very steep seas will persist through Friday
night, and areas of steep seas will persist through Sunday.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ620-621.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ024-
     026.

     Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ024>028.

     Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ029>031.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ623>625.

     Red Flag Warning from midnight Thursday night to 10 AM PDT
     Saturday for ORZ616-617-621>623.

     Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for ORZ620.

CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ080.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ280-281.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ280.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday for
     CAZ080>082.

     Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ081-082.

     Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ083>085.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ284-285.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-
     376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 5 AM PDT Saturday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

&&