Wildfire in California, February 9, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1020 AM MST Wed Feb 9 2022

.UPDATE...Updated 18z Aviation Discussion.

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.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure aloft situated along the West Coast will
result in mostly clear skies and well above normal temperatures at
least through the weekend. High temperatures in the upper 70s to
lower 80s are expected through Monday with no chance of
precipitation. A potential shift to a more unsettled weather
pattern is possible by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern through the rest of the week will feature an
unseasonably strong ridge over the western CONUS and deep
troughing to the east. The ridge is currently centered just west
of northern California and Oregon with 500mb heights of 586-588dm,
representing record heights over a large area off the coast for
the climo period. For our region, we will continue to fall under
northerly flow along the eastern fringes of the high. This
scenario means dry subsident flow through our region for several
more days, likely through the weekend with temperatures warming
another few degrees today before leveling off.

Forecast highs today through Monday generally range from the upper
70s to the lower 80s across the lower deserts, to as high 85 for
a small area from Yuma to the Imperial Valley. NBM probabilities
for reaching 85 degrees top out at 6% for Phoenix on Saturday,
20-25% for Yuma Saturday-Monday, and 35% for El Centro on Friday.
These highs fall short of record highs by a few degrees, but will
still be roughly 10 degrees above seasonal normals.

The upper level ridge will begin to weaken over the weekend as it
finally moves inland, and while an upper level trough tracks
southeastward into the Pacific Northwest. Heights will remain
stable over our region through Monday, before the incoming trough
approaches our region at some point around next Tuesday/Wednesday.
Model ensembles essentially all agree on the ridge weakening and
a trough entering the Western U.S., but diverge on the track and
strength of the trough into the middle of next week. The vast
majority of guidance has the trough traveling over land which
means precipitation chances are likely to be quite limited, but
for now there is at least a small group of GEFS and EPS members
showing light QPF amounts around next Wednesday. A decent cool
down is also favored with the NBM indicating highs dropping back
to around normal starting next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1720Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Light winds this morning with an E to NE component, mostly less
than 8 kts, will be favored with periods of variable winds.
Additional variability is anticipated during diurnal transitions
to a W component from 21-23Z. Anticipate low level NE winds
around 2 kft to increase up to 25-35 kts tonight. However, shear
is currently not forecast to reach the 30 kt LLWS TAF threshold.
Mostly clear skies will persist with a few passing high clouds at
times.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Winds at KIPL will continue to favor a northerly direction with
speeds increasing up to 10 kts. Winds become lighter and from the
northwest tonight but northerly winds increase again on Thursday. At
KBLH, N to NW winds are favored with breezy conditions increasing
going into the afternoon. Gusts upwards of 15-20 kts will be
possible at KBLH. Elevated surface winds up to 10-15 kts will
likely continue through most of the overnight hours tonight with a
strong northerly gradient wind developing with winds up to 35-40
kts at 2 kft. LLWS will be around 25-30 kts as a result, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time.
Turbulence from LLWS will be possible at KIPL as well. Mostly
clear skies will persist aside from a few passing high clouds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday:
Strong high pressure will persist with no measurable precipitation
and above normal temperatures prevailing through the period. A
weak but dry disturbance glancing the area on Saturday may deliver
enhanced breeziness, with gusts of 20-25 mph locally. Otherwise,
light winds will prevail. Min RHs will range between 10-20% while
max RHs will range between 25-45%.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

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DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Hodges/Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman