A west to east oriented shear axis aloft extended along the Middle Red River Valley of North Texas into Southeast Oklahoma to along the Arkansas/Louisiana border during the morning hours of July 3rd, which enhanced large scale forcing for the development of a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of Southern Arkansas. A very moist environment was in place across this area…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SHV wrote it up.
A west to east oriented shear axis aloft extended along the Middle Red River Valley of North Texas into Southeast Oklahoma to along the Arkansas/Louisiana border during the morning hours of July 3rd, which enhanced large scale forcing for the development of a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of Southern Arkansas. A very moist environment was in place across this area as well, which enhanced rain rates as these showers and thunderstorms remained nearly stationary over much of Union County Arkansas through much of the morning hours after daybreak. Widespread rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches fell across Union County, with isolated higher amounts of 7-9+ inches measured across Northern and Central portions of the county. This resulted in widespread flash flooding across much of Union County, flooding and washing away multiple roads, with high water entering multiple buildings in El Dorado. These showers and thunderstorms diminished during the afternoon hours on the 3rd.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Shreveport, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 2:56 AM CST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 356 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 Latest upper air analysis is still showing a west to east oriented shear axis along the Middle Red River Valley of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR, hugging the AR/LA border into SE AR attm. This feature is pinned between weak ridging aloft just off the S LA Coast and stronger upper ridging across the Upper Red River Valley into EC OK and the Tenn Valley. A moist tongue of moisture in the form of higher pwats (in excess of 2 inches) also exists along the eastern flank of this shear axis from SW AR into N and NE LA. This upper forcing has already resulted in the development of widely scattered showers across portions of N LA and S AR early this morning and if high res and a majority of CAMS solutions are correct, should see convection grow in intensity and coverage across the area as we move through the morning, perhaps trying to taper off in coverage and intensity by late morning through the afternoon hours. Have therefore oriented pops highest across our NE zones today, tapering pops back to slight chance probabilities near and northwest to the I-30 Corridor with NIL pops across Deep East Texas for today. QPF efficiency could be similar to what we witnessed early on Saturday with training of storms with excessive rainfall rates so we will need to monitor this closely across S AR and N LA this morning. Needless to say, cloud cover and storm coverage will greatly impact temperatures today with mid to upper 90s likely across our far west and southwest zones to upper 80s across SC AR and portions of NE LA. For tonight, kept slight chance pops going across all but our southwest third early this evening but we should have a quiet night across much of our region overnight even though some progs still hint at the shear axis lingering across our eastern third overnight. For Monday, the upper ridge mentioned above across the N Gulf Coast will move inland and take up residence across the western half of our region and thus the forecast shifts to the return of the extensive heat, not only for Monday but through the long term portion of the forecast as well. Would not be surprised to see some locations on Monday seeing afternoon heat indices approaching 105 degrees but they do not appear widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory with this package attm. 13 && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 Upper ridging will remain firmly in place across the region by Tuesday of the upcoming work week, along with above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs will approach the upper 90s to triple digits in many locations, especially across the western half of the region. There may be enough weakness on the southern flank of the ridge to allow some diurnal seabreeze convection to make it into portions of our Central and NE Louisiana zones Tuesday afternoon, although confidence is only high enough to include slight chance POPs at this time. Because of this, afternoon temps could likely be few degrees cooler in those areas. Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be a carbon copy of Tuesday with above normal temps, as upper ridging will remain in place, along with slight afternoon POPs across portions of Central and NE Louisiana. Heat Advisories may be needed on all three days, as models suggest dewpoints will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s in this stagnant airmass, resulting in heat index values approaching the 105 threshold. By Friday and Saturday, the center of the upper ridge will start to shift westward into portions of western Texas and eventually into the Rockies. But, the above normal temperatures and possible heat advisories will remain, including likely triple digit readings in many locations across the region. However, because of the placement of the ridge, there could be enough weakness for isolated diurnal convection to develop across our eastern zones on Friday and eventually across most of the region by Saturday. /20/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 VFR conditions currently prevailing across all but the ELD terminal with LIFR ceilings currently prevailing at that location. Shear axis currently extends near the AR/LA boarder and some high res products are hinting at developing convection during the predawn hours in the vicinity of the ELD/MLU terminals. Have therefore trended the 06z TAF package to this scenario with VCTS or VCSH prevailing at the ELD terminal, delaying this to near sunrise at the MLU terminal with TEMPO TSRA and VSBY restrictions through the first half of the day. Elsewhere, we may have to deal with some ceiling restrictions at the other remaining terminals not to mention VSBY restrictions given all the precipitation and wet soils from Saturday but did not go lower than MVFR on the ceilings heights and VSBY categories through 03/15z. Should see VFR conditions returning to our northeast half outside of convection for the afternoon hours today. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 94 76 97 76 / 30 20 0 0 MLU 89 74 93 75 / 60 20 10 0 DEQ 94 72 98 74 / 20 20 0 0 TXK 93 77 97 77 / 30 20 0 0 ELD 87 72 93 74 / 60 20 10 0 TYR 97 76 100 76 / 10 10 0 0 GGG 95 75 98 75 / 20 20 0 0 LFK 97 75 97 75 / 10 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...13
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1157 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 ARZ061-071>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153- 165>167-031200- Nevada-Lafayette-Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne- Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine- Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith- Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina- San Augustine- 1157 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon across much of Lower East Texas along and south of Interstate 20, extreme Southern Arkansas, and North Louisiana, as an upper level disturbance slowly drifts northeast over these areas. While severe thunderstorms are not expected, the stronger storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, which may result in localized flash flooding. While these storms will diminish by this evening, additional showers and embedded thunderstorms may redevelop late tonight over portions of Southcentral Arkansas and Northeast Louisiana, which may again result in locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms look to persist through Sunday afternoon across portions of Southern Arkansas and North Louisiana near this disturbance, before diminishing late in the day. Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible across these areas from the stronger storms, which may result in minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage areas. An upper level ridge of high pressure will begin building in over the region late Sunday and persist through much of this coming week, with afternoon temperatures climbing into the mid 90s to in excess of 100 degrees each day. Combined with the high humidity, heat indices will range from 105-110 degrees, with Heat Advisories likely needed for much if not all of the Four State Region next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio operators, and storm spotters may be needed this afternoon. ARZ050-051-059-060-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-031200- Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Miller-McCurtain-Red River- Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass- 1157 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas. However, no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will again be possible Sunday across Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas, before diminishing late in the day as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds in over the region and persists through much of this coming week. This will result in afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 90s to in excess of 100 degrees each day, and when combined with the high humidity, will produce heat indices ranging from 105-110 degrees. Thus, Heat Advisories will likely be needed for much if not all of the Four State Region next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio operators, and storm spotters will not be needed through tonight. 15
The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 158 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:57 UTC.
7 flash flood, 3 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A storm total rainfall of 7.10 inches was measured at Calion Lock and Dam along the Ouachita River.
A personal rain gauge in Norphlet measured a storm total rainfall of 9.12 inches.
A personal weather station measured a storm total rainfall of 6.34 inches just off of Highway 167 between El Dorado and Calion.
Multiple pictures were posted to social media of numerous roads that were flooded in Smackover. These pictures also revealed that water entered multiple building within the city.
Multiple pictures were posted to social media of portions of the 300-400 block of North Tate Street and the 500-600 block of East Padgett Street in Norphlet were washed out. A personal electronic rain gauge in Norphlet measured 9.12 inches of rain from this event.
About 3-4 feet of rushing water covered Highway 275 near Philadelphia Road. The road was closed in both directions.
Manhole covers were floating away due to floodwaters throughout El Dorado. Widespread flooding was observed across much of Union County.
High water entered multiple buildings on West Hillsboro Street in El Dorado. Numerous roads were flooded throughout the city.
High water with depths of 3-4 feet covered West 19th Street and Tanglewood Drive in El Dorado. Multiple high water rescues were needed to rescue stranded motorists and residents from their homes.
Multiple pictures were posted to social media of much of Iron Mountain Road in front of Tony's Cycle Shop was washed away.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1045075, 1045077, 1045078, 1045066, 1045068, 1045070, 1045071, 1045072, 1045073, 1045074.