Persistent heavy rainfall brought flash flooding to the southern part of the state.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Persistent heavy rainfall brought flash flooding to the southern part of the state.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 5:25 AM CST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 625 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 .MESOSCALE UPDATE... A band of vigorous and deep convection was noted on recent radar imgry, w/ cloud tops cooling rapidly, and rainfall rates estimated at 2-3"/hr under the strongest storms via mesonet data. Rainfall rates of this magnitude are expected to continue over the next few hours w/ convection remaining nearly stationary over the lower Ouachita River valley. QPF around this region could exceed 4 to 5 inches (or more locally), and lead to local flash flooding around the area, particularly in portions of Ouachita, Calhoun, Bradley, and Drew counties. /72/ && .AVIATION...For 03/12Z TAFs Mixed batch of IFR to MVFR condns were noted around the FA this morning, w/ low-lvl cloud cover expanding over much of the Srn half of the state. In the last hour, a band of strong TSRA has developed, but should only impact far Srn terminals through the later morning hours. Elsewhere, ongoing IFR CIGs are expected to improve to VFR by the early afternoon. For PBF/LLQ, have kept mentions of TSRA through the early afternoon, and condns expected to improve to VFR status by the evening. Winds wl remain light and VRB throughout the PD. /72/ && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 331 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022) SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night W/in the last 12 to 18 hours, short range hi-res guidance has become increasingly consistent with painting a very local band of excessive QPF across portions of far Srn AR. Most model solns suggest a small bullseye of (realistically 3-4+ inches, but possibly more) sometime between 08Z to 14Z later this morning...SHV radar already shows developing returns over the I-20 corridor...HREF prob guidance for at least 2" of QPF b/w 12Z-18Z (primarily around 12Z and shortly thereafter) depicted a swath of 40 to 50% during this timeframe over the tri-CWA border area as well. PWATs across the concerning area are showing 2"+ and minimal cloud layer steering flow around what appears to be a low-lvl convergent zone somewhere in Srn AR could make this a very realistic situation...With this in mind, and given that the beginning of what could be nearly stationary, explosive convection capable of highly efficient rainfall rates (2-3"/hr), have upped QPF amounts around Calhoun, Bradley, and Drew counties. Given the low to medium range confidence on the magnitude of QPF, the approximate location of the greatest rainfall axis, and the isolated nature of where the max rainfall bullseyes may occur, have opted to hold off on a short fuse flood watch, in coordination with Jackson and Shreveport WFOs. As of late, most of Arkansas has remained extremely dry, with mentions of rainfall far and few in between, so overall soil saturation is on the low-end, but portions of Srn AR did receive estimated amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches of rain on Sat afternoon, somewhat priming the ground surface, and reducing FFG. Currently, 2to 4 inches of localized heavy rainfall may not result in problematic flooding issues, rather just local tributary and stream rises. However, model spread on QPF amounts through Sunday afternoon have been quite high to say the least, with confidence on how much rainfall may occur still up in the air. If robust and efficient rainfall producing convection occurs with significant training, then higher local amounts in excess of 4 to 5 inches (or perhaps more in localized spots) is possible, and could result in more problematic flooding around Srn AR. Special thanks to Shreveport and Jackson WFOs for the collaboration this morning! For the remainder of the FA through the PD...heat headlines and mentions of dangerous heat wl begin to occupy the discussion, as Mon looks to be the last day for the coming week where there isn't a spot in the state that hits 100F. Area high temps wl lkly top the mid 90s for most, w/ heat index values beginning to break the 100 degree mark, and only increasing daily heading into the long term PD. LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday Aloft, a stout ridge, or dome, of high pressure will be firmly entrenched across the SErn CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will be located well to the E of AR and with clockwise flow around the system, winds will be out of the S/SE locally. This will ensure hot and humid conditions prevail through the week. Temperatures will modify and afternoon fair weather cumulus will be harder and harder to come by mid to late week as upper level heights increase and large scale subsidence ramps up. High temperatures will approach or slightly exceed the century mark starting Tuesday and persist through Friday. Some locations may range from 100 to 105 degrees. Dew points through the week should remain in the lower to mid 70s. Combining hot temperatures with high dew points, heat index values are expected to climb above 105 through the week, with some locations approaching or exceeding the 115 mark in the afternoons. Conditions will prove to remain in the dangerous category when overnight lows are factored in. As of now, current low temperatures are expected to range from the mid/upper 70s to lower 80s. This gives little relief to those who lack air conditioning, or work outdoors, a way to cool off from the relentless heat. Long range guidance suggest a weakening in the upper level ridge will be possible by Saturday as the entire ridge retrogrades into the Cntrl Plains. This could allow an upper level system and short wave trough to dive SE within NWrly flow. This could promote the next chance of showers and thunderstorms with temperatures easing just a bit. This is still far out and will be monitored with time. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && Aviation...72
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Little Rock AR 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069- 103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230- 237-238-240-241-313-340-341-040800- Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence- Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry- Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark- Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln- Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest- Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations- Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County- Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County- Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County- Polk County Lower Elevations- Central and Eastern Montgomery County- Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations- Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations- Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations- Van Buren County Higher Elevations- Southern and Eastern Logan County- Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest- Northern Polk County Higher Elevations- Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations- Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations- Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations- Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations- 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected across portions of far southern Arkansas during the early morning hours Sunday, and persist through the later morning to early afternoon. There will be potential for isolated areas of heavy to excessive rainfall...on the order of 2 to 4 inches (and perhaps more in very local spots), which may result in rises on local tributaries and streams, and possibly cause some local flash flooding issues. Otherwise, no other hazardous weather is expected around the state today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Through Saturday Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms activity will decrease in coverage each afternoon heading through the upcoming work week. Heat index values will increase to 100 to 110 for many areas much of next week as a hot and humid airmass settles across the region. A few areas may reach Excessive Heat Warning criteria where heat index values of 115 or greater will be possible. With overnight lows only falling into the upper 70s to potentially low 80s, there will be little relief from heat at night. This will be especially dangerous for vulnerable populations. .Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation will not be needed. && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk. 72/70
The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 169 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:27 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A Moro Bay State Park employee reported a few roads within the state park were covered by water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1044109.