A weakening and slow moving complex of storms moved into southeast Arkansas on the morning of July 3rd. The slow movement combined with heavy rainfall rates resulted in flash flooding in Ashley County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
A weakening and slow moving complex of storms moved into southeast Arkansas on the morning of July 3rd. The slow movement combined with heavy rainfall rates resulted in flash flooding in Ashley County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 5:55 AM CST, 1 hour earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 655 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 .UPDATE... Updated for 12Z aviation discussion && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF discussion: Patchy LIFR/IFR low clouds and fog this morning will diminish over there next few hours. SHRA/TS will impact southeast AR/northeast LA/northwest MS, possibly including GLH/GWO, this morning. Then coverage of convection will increase across the remainder of the area later in the daytime. Brief ceiling/visby reductions are possible in +RA along with brief strong wind gusts. SHRA will decrease in coverage around and after sunset tonight. Additional patchy low ceiling and fog development is possible late tonight into early Monday morning, especially across south/east MS. /DL/ && .DISCUSSION... Today and tonight: In many ways, the forecast remains stuck on repeat. We remain in a very moist airmass with PW upwards of 2-2.5". We are once again starting off the day with patches of low clouds and fog, especially across the south/east. The primary difference for today will be the location of the pesky remnant surface low, which is now roughly over the ArkLaMiss Delta as of this morning. CAM guidance has consistently keyed in on kicking off localized early morning convection within close proximity of the low, similar to what occurred over northwest LA/east TX yesterday morning. HREF LPMM suggests potential for localized totals of 5-6"+ over a fairly confined area, which isn't shocking given PW near 2.5". Given this, we will continue to highlight a limited flood threat for that area through the morning hours. Elsewhere, convection should become widespread during the afternoon across the remainder of the area. Again some locally heavy downpours and brief gusty winds will be possible. Activity will decrease in coverage by mid evening, with the potential again for redevelopment during the early morning hours Monday near the surface low center over north MS as the broken record spins on. /DL/ Monday through Sunday. Old boundaries and a few disturbances over the next week will keep a chance of shower and thunderstorms in the forecast nearly every day. Dewpoints will remain in the lower to mid 70s through the week, where atmospheric moisture will be elevated with tropical remnants over the area and south/southeasterly winds prevailing. Looking for rain to linger/redevelop overnight and the potential for heavy downpours to remain possible for much of the week. The upper ridge builds in from the west Wednesday, with some slightly drier air moving into upper levels. Models continue to show heat increasing through the week, with heat index values near 110 by the weekend, especially west/north of the Natchez Trace, where the upper ridge will hover. Heat advisories will likely be needed for portions of the area from mid to late week into next weekend. The next boundary moves into the area around Sunday, where the region may finally get a brief airmass change. Dewpoint values may fall into the lower 70's, but high temperatures should remain near normal. Overall, no big changes to the forecast through the extended. Stuck pretty close to guidance for temps and pops. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 89 74 90 74 / 51 38 50 22 Meridian 89 73 91 74 / 62 44 64 31 Vicksburg 89 74 91 74 / 49 24 28 12 Hattiesburg 92 74 92 75 / 54 33 62 31 Natchez 90 74 92 74 / 35 20 25 10 Greenville 86 74 91 75 / 80 29 34 12 Greenwood 88 74 91 75 / 75 31 46 18 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && DL/07
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 411 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-040915- Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland- Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Washington-Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey- 411 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northwest Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...This morning Localized flash flooding is possible through midday, especially in low lying and urban areas. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Hot weather will return to the forecast area Monday. Increasing heat stress is possible, with heat index values near 105 degrees over most of the area. Residents are encouraged to stay hydrated and avoid strenuous outdoor activities, especially from the late morning through the afternoon hours. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) Dangerous heat stress is expected to continue through the end of the week, with heat index values from 105 to 110 degrees for much of the area. Residents should avoid prolonged outdoor activity, especially from the late morning through the afternoon hours. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Saturday. LAZ016-023>026-MSZ026>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-040915- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Grenada-Carroll- Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala- Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren- Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson- Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence- Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest- 411 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Louisiana, and central and south Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Hot weather will return to the forecast area Monday. Increasing heat stress is possible, with heat index values near 105 degrees over most of the area. Residents are encouraged to stay hydrated and avoid strenuous outdoor activities, especially from the late morning through the afternoon hours. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) Dangerous heat stress is expected to continue through the end of the week, with heat index values from 105 to 110 degrees for much of the area. Residents should avoid prolonged outdoor activity, especially from the late morning through the afternoon hours. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Saturday. DL && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *FLOODING* Extreme...Confident in significant flooding. Significant...Significant flooding possible. Elevated...Confident in flooding. Limited...Flooding possible. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Tropical page... https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan National Hurricane Center Home Page... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES... Current Watches and Warnings... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain Observed Precipitation Images... https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps River Forecast Center... https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/ Significant River Flood Outlook... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml Excessive Rainfall Discussion... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html Day 1 through 7 QPF... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml QPF Discussion... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 174 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:55 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water covered the road at the intersection of Highways 189 and 133.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1038070.