A trough just to the west of Arizona and southerly flow aloft helped produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some storms produced large hail, funnel clouds, and small tornadoes.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A trough just to the west of Arizona and southerly flow aloft helped produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some storms produced large hail, funnel clouds, and small tornadoes.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 13, 9:19 AM MST, 1 hour 41 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 919 AM MST Tue Sep 13 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity will continue into the morning hours then become more numerous this afternoon. For Wednesday, storm coverage is expected to decrease and become focused mainly from the Mogollon Rim northward. On Thursday and over the coming weekend drier air will arrive, mostly putting an end to the thunderstorm threat. Look for a gradual warming trend through the period. && .UPDATE...Only minor updates this morning to account for current trends and latest CAMs, as the going forecast is on track. Expect an active day across the CWA similar to yesterday, but with less shear. Storms most numerous around and NW of the Flagstaff area, and over the White Mountains. In addition to our typical thunderstorm threats (hail, strong winds), training storms will have the potential for locally heavy rainfall. && .PREV DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...A trough just to the west, and southerly flow aloft have kept scattered showers and a few strong thunderstorms going overnight with the highest coverage along the I-17 corridor and into NW Gila County. Other isolated storms persist in much of Coconino and NW Yavapai counties as of 230 AM. This trough will not move much today, and after a lull in the activity later this morning, scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon and into at least early evening. The highest coverage of precipitation this afternoon is expected over Coconino County and along the Mogollon Rim into the White Mountains. HREF neighborhood probabilities of 3-hr QPF hitting 1" or greater are around 30% from Flagstaff northwest to the Grand Canyon and Kaibab Plateau, and also near the White Mountains. So there will still be a risk of localized flash flooding today, especially in these areas. This threat will linger into the evening and possibly overnight in northwest Arizona including Grand Canyon and vicinity. However, don't think the expected coverage is high enough to warrant extending the current Flash Flood Watch so we will let it expire this morning at 5 AM. For Wednesday, the trough weakens and shifts eastward. Highest shower and storm coverage is forecast in NW Coconino County, with mostly isolated activity elsewhere. The heavy rain threat decreases significantly on Wednesday. High temperatures today and Wednesday will be 5-8 degrees cooler than normal for this time of year. Thursday through the weekend - drier westerly flow develops over the region, ending the chance of storms. Daytime temperatures will warm back up to near normal, with seasonably cool nights. By later in the weekend, a trough developing over the western US may get close enough to our area for increasing southwest winds in the 20-30 mph range, something we haven't seen in a couple months. Models differ on how deep the trough will be when in moves through, but in any case it should knock temperatures down a bit below normal. GFS even tries to pull some moisture up ahead of the trough, though most other guidance does not. Blended guidance is used in our forecast this far out, and includes a 20-30% chance of rain for next Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION...For the 18Z TAF package...Mainly VFR conditions persist for the next 24 hours with SCT to BKN cloud cover. Expect scattered SHRA/TSRA developing after 20Z with greatest coverage across northwest Coconino County and along/northeast of the Mogollon Rim. Anticipate activity to decrease after 05Z Wed with storms continuing across northwest Coconino County and northeast Arizona overnight. Gusty winds, minor turbulence, and brief MVFR/IFR conditions, resulting in mountain obscuration at times, will be possible in and around any storms. South/southwest winds 10-15 kts are otherwise expected in the afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms across northern Arizona this afternoon and evening, with scattered storms along and north of the Mogollon Rim on Wednesday. Temperatures will be cooler than normal with southwest winds around 10 to 20 mph. Thursday through Saturday...Dry weather is forecast with breezy conditions in the afternoon. Daytime temperatures warming a bit. &&& .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...BAK/JJ AVIATION...LaGuardia FIRE WEATHER...BAK For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
953 AM MST Tue Sep 13 2022
AZZ008-015-037-131730-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Western Mogollon Rim-Yavapai County
Mountains-
953 AM MST Tue Sep 13 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Coconino and Yavapai
Counties near Paulden through 1030 AM MST...
At 952 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Paulden, or 8 miles north of Chino Valley, moving northeast at 10
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph, half inch hail, and heavy rain.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible. Localized flooding is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Paulden.
This includes State Route 89 between mile markers 332 and 350.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3480 11242 3481 11252 3486 11260 3510 11253
3498 11224
TIME...MOT...LOC 1652Z 206DEG 10KT 3488 11248
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
EFLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1032 AM MST TUE SEP 13 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1010 AM HAIL 1 N PAULDEN 34.90N 112.47W
09/13/2022 E0.88 INCH YAVAPAI AZ TRAINED SPOTTER
MODERATE WINDS, HAIL UP TO NICKLE SIZED.
&&
BAKThe Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 90 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:58 UTC.
2 tornado, 1 hail, 1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
A land-spout tornado was on the ground briefly south of the Little Colorado River. Dust from the ground was lofted into the air.
Quarter to golf ball sized hail (one inch to 1 3/4 inch diameter) was reported just north of Holbrook.
Pictures of a funnel cloud near Joseph City and Jack Rabbit were posted on social media.
A tornado formed and traveled along the leading edge of a thunderstorm outflow boundary.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Arizona, 2022Warnings in Arizona, September 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1055637, 1055635, 1055636, 1055638.