Wildfire in Arizona, June 11 to 24, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
348 AM MST Sat Jun 11 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Excessive heat will continue through the weekend.
Thereafter, a weather system passing north of the area will bring
slightly cooler daytime temperatures early next week. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible the next couple days, however any
storms will favor areas south and east of Tucson and in the
mountains.

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.DISCUSSION...It has been pretty odd the last few nights. Seeing
convection in the middle of the night from June 9-11 is not
typical. There are still ongoing isolated dry TS across mainly
Cochise County and this will continue through the morning before
dissipating.

Overnight convection is allowing TDs to remain elevated and
models are struggling with the recycling of moisture. So once
again, Saturday appears more active than 24hrs ago. Coverage of
storms should remain south and east of Tucson. Gusty winds and
lightning are the main concerns. Wetting rains will be localized
and sparse, so new fire starts are possible. Another concern will
be very hot temps with breezy winds tomorrow, which could help a
few lightning holdover fires to show up.

Sunday will likely be a repeat of Saturday with isolated dry TS
or a mix of wet/dry storms mainly south and east of Tucson. The
heat will continue with many lower desert locations around 110,
threatening records.

By Monday-Wed, enough westerly flow dries us out. Still would not
be shocked to see an isolated dry TS along the International
Border or NM/AZ border, however coverage will be very limited.

Late next week, the high pressure strengthens and moves into the
central plains, while a deep/anomalous upper low moves down the
Cali coast. This puts the Desert SW in a deep and moist flow
regime, essentially opening the Gulf of Mexico faucet. While it
is still a week out, this has been consistent and something that
bears watching. This would put Arizona in a very active pattern
for mid June.

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.AVIATION...Valid through 12/12Z.
Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible for KOLS this afternoon with storms
focused south and east of Tucson, especially near mountainous
regions. SFC winds will generally be out of the W/NW sustained
10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts across the area during the
afternoon. FEW/SCT clouds between 10k-14k ft AGL with SCT-BKN
cloud decks possible around 25k ft AGL through the evening.
Clouds will diminish becoming FEW at 20k-25k ft AGL into Sunday
morning. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon and evening thunderstorms the past couple
of days will tail off a bit this weekend as the heat ramps up
further. Storms that do develop won't produce a wealth of rainfall
due to a mostly dry lower atmosphere, with the primary threat being
dry lightning strikes and strong gusty winds. Storm coverage the
next two days will favor areas south and east of Tucson.

20-foot winds will generally be from the W/NW at 10-15 mph with
gusts to 25 mph possible each afternoon through Monday. The
strongest winds will be across the upper Gila River Valley where
gusts could approach 35 mph briefly each afternoon. With ongoing
fires and the possibility of holdover fires, hot/unstable and
breezy winds will create elevated fire weather. An hour or two of
critical fire weather will also be possible, but remain localized.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ501>506-509.

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