Damaging Wind in Arizona, July 12, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
146 PM MST Tue Jul 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain above average through the
weekend with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening hours each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure is still in place over the
region with temperatures a couple degrees less than this time
yesterday. The ridge will be in place through the weekend leading
to continued above normal temperatures through the weekend. The
only reprieve would be an afternoon thunderstorms cooling things
down.

Radar and satellite show isolated thunderstorms over a
few of the sky islands. The HREF and UAWRFs keep this activity
going through the afternoon and evening. Southeast/east steering
flow will try and push the storms off the mountains into the lower
deserts. There is limited instability, so storms may struggle
when they move off the mountains. However storms that do survive
will be capable of strong outflow winds and locally heavy
rainfall. Some hi-res models send a strong outflow from eastern
Pima County up through Pinal County, which could cause some dust
issues. Thunderstorm activity will be possible through midnight
with lingering light showers possible thereafter mainly in western
Pima County.

Wednesday dryer air intrudes into Cochise County lowering PWAT
values to around 1". Good moisture will still be in place over
Pima, Pinal, and Santa Cruz Counties where isolated to scattered
storms will be possible. The best chances will be in central Pima
County. The White Mountains will also see convection.

Thursday into the weekend the center of the high meanders around
the four corners region keeping southern Arizona in southeasterly
to easterly flow. Because of this expect daily afternoon and
evening thunderstorms through the weekend with possibly more
active days on Friday and Saturday. Deterministic model runs show
a weak vort max rotating around the periphery of the high and
moving through northern Sonora. At the very least this feature
looks to enhance mid-level flow, which would lead to better
organized and longer lived storms.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 14/00Z.
ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/TSRA with CIGS 8-12k ft AGL possible this
afternoon and evening. Wednesday TSRA will be possible from
Tucson south to Nogales and westward. SFC winds generally less
than 12 kts with the exception of gusty and erratic thunderstorm
outflows. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Above normal temperatures and a gradual increase in monsoon
moisture will lead to daily afternoon/evening shower and
thunderstorm activity through the weekend. Strong, erratic winds
with gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in and around
thunderstorms. Outside of thunderstorms, 20-ft winds will remain
at or below 15 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
133 PM MST Tue Jul 12 2022

AZZ503-504-507-513-122115-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green
Valley/Marana/Vail-
133 PM MST Tue Jul 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Pima
and central Santa Cruz Counties through 215 PM MST...

At 132 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Nogales, moving west at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Nogales, Tubac, Rio Rico, Patagonia, Nogales International Airport,
Patagonia Lake State Park, Tumacacori, Amado, Kino Springs, Madera
Canyon and Arivaca Junction.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 19 between mile markers 1 and 35.
 Route 82 between mile markers 1 and 29.
 Route 83 near mile marker 42.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3180 11112 3180 11070 3133 11070 3133 11107
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 076DEG 25KT 3139 11096

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GEL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 PM MST Tue Jul 12 2022

AZZ505-506-514-122145-
Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains including Mount
Lemmon/Summerhaven-Southeast Pinal County including
Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle-South Central Pinal County including
Eloy/Picacho Peak State Park-
200 PM MST Tue Jul 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Pinal
County through 245 PM MST...

At 200 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oracle, moving west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Oracle, Mammoth, Saddlebrooke, San Manuel, Campo Bonito, Oracle
Junction and Biosphere 2.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 77 between mile markers 89 and 116.
 Route 79 between mile markers 92 and 101.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3274 11061 3252 11062 3252 11104 3287 11107
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 111DEG 18KT 3263 11078

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GEL