Flood in Alaska, May 21 to 30, 2022

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
248 PM AKDT Sat May 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and dry conditions are expected today across much of the
Interior. Stratus, fog and flurries will persist over the North
Slope. Temperatures will cool slightly on Sunday in the eastern
Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 21/12 UTC model suite generally initialized well when
compared to observational data. There are some differences in the
models, especially after Sunday. The GFS is a little bit further
east with the placement of the shortwave that will dive down over
the eastern Interior Sunday into Monday.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 567 dam ridge currently stretches from
northwest to southeast across the forecast area. A trough will dig
south across the eastern Interior on Sunday with colder air
continuing to move in aloft on Monday. The trough pushes south
while the ridge will shift west to cover the Bering Sea.

At the surface, thermal trough along the north side of the Alaska
Range will strengthen this afternoon and evening, but will weaken
on Sunday as colder air filters south. Elsewhere, a 1034 mb high
is currently in place over he Arctic Ocean, with a 1000 mb low
over the eastern Aleutians and a 1005 mb low over the Gulf of
Alsaka. This pattern will persist through Sunday. On Monday, the
low over the eastern Aleutians will push to the west while a the
high will push southeast into northwest Canada.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Warm and dry conditions will continue today across the Interior,
with temperatures this evening climbing into the the mid 70s in
some spots. A thermal trough on the north side of the Alaska Range
will bring gusty winds at times in the Alaska Range with gusts as
high as 35 mph possible. Temperatures will cool on Sunday as a
trough slides south over the area, with continued cooling on
Monday. On Sunday, highs will be in the mid to upper 60s, with
highs expected to be in the lower 60s on Monday. Areas to the
southeast of Delta Junction will see scattered showers on Sunday
and Monday along with a slight chance for some thunderstorms as
well.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Satellite imagery from this afternoon shows extensive low clouds
and fog across the North Slope, which will persist into Sunday.
Easterly winds with gusts to 25 mph are expected tonight as a
strong area of high pressure pushes to the south over the Arctic
Ocean. Winds will weaken and become more southeasterly as the
area of high pressure moves to the southeast on Monday. Highs over
the next few days will be in the upper 20s to low 30s with
overnight lows in the mid and low 20s.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A weather front will bring cloudy skies to the Yukon Delta and
the lower Yukon Valley tonight. Elsewhere,clear skies will
prevail as high a remains in place. Temperatures will remain well
above normal on Sunday, with widespread 60s and 70s before a
cooling trend develops for early next week.
 Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The Red Flag Warning remains in effect for this evening for hot,
dry and windy conditions along the Richardson Highway from Delta
Junction southward to Donnelly Dome. A cooling trend in
temperatures is expected for the eastern Interior on Sunday with
weaker wind,

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
An ice jam several miles upstream of Grayling along the Yukon
River continues to hold, with a Flood Watch continuing through
tonight from Grayling to Russia Mission. The main concerns are
potential for flooding once this ice jam breaks, with rapidly
rising river levels in these areas, as water backed up from this
ice jam continues to cause flooding upstream of Graying. In
addition, the ice jam is causing water to be diverted over land
from the Yukon River into the Innoko River.

Accelerated snow melt continues along higher terrain of the
Central and Eastern Interior over the next several days given the
warm temperatures. Since the current snow pack at these levels
are at record depths for this time of year, the added water volume
to the Chena, Tanana, and Salcha river basins will result in
rises to bankfull with minor flooding possible by Sunday. Thus, a
flood watch remains in effect for the Salcha River. We also
upgraded the flood watch for the Chena River to a flood advisory.
Please remain alert as conditions can change rapidly in regards to
river breakup along the Yukon River. For the latest river
information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Flood Watch for AKZ215-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224.
&&

MAY 22