NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 10, 12:34 PM AKST, 4 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 10, 12:34 PM AKST, 4 hours 26 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
134 PM AKDT Tue May 10 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Another front has moved to the West Coast and Arctic
and is spreading a mix of showers to those areas. The front will
continue inland but lose some energy as it reaches the Interior.
In the Arctic snow showers will continue to spread east through
Wednesday. As the front moves into the Interior rain and snow
showers will become scattered to isolated. Expect some patchy
dense fog in the Interior valleys Wednesday morning. Cooler
temperatures continue.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Models...10/12Z solutions maintain a weaker system moving across
the Interior Wednesday, but still expect some scattered to
isolated rain/snow showers. Run to run solutions have been
flopping around, but they do seem to be coming into better
agreement in the midrange, but for the extended periods will use
mainly the Ensemble mean. Short term will lean on the NAM and
ECMWF solutions for probabilities. Temperatures continue to run
warm in most of the solutions, so will nudge everything down with
the CONSMOS as it produces cooler temperatures than the other
solutions, then make local adjustments down. Extended periods
temperatures are also running too warm, so will adjust them down
as well. Not making many changes in the winds except to nudge them
with the Canadian solution to bring them up a couple knots.
Aloft...At 500 hpa...Long Wave trough digging south over the
central part of the state with a 528 dam low 100 nm north of
Kaktovik, a 529 dam low over Stevens Village, and a 525 dam low
100 nm west of Yakutat. Riding over the Bering Sea with a 576 dam
high 100 nm northwest of Adak and ridging extending north over the
Chukotsk Peninsula and the western Chukchi Sea. A 521 dam low is
400 nm west of Wrangel Island with a shortwave extending east,
then south over the Dateline. By Wednesday morning troughing over
the Arctic will be centered over 140W extending south over the
Eastern Interior to the 525 dam low 100 nm southwest of Yakutat.
Ridging to the west will continue with the high 150 nm north of
Adak and the axis extending northeast over Nunivak Island to
Huslia to Utqiagvik then northwest. The low west of Wrangel Island
will move to 200 nm northwest of Wrangel Island with the trough
extending southeast over Point Hope to Emmonak. By Wednesday
morning the longwave trough will be centered over the AlCan
Border. The high in the Bering Sea will be 250 nm northeast of
Adak, and the ridge axis will rotate to lie over the Pribilofs to
Fairbanks to Kaktovik, then north. The low in the Arctic will move
to 250 nm northeast of Wrangel Island with a trough extending
southeast over Utqiagvik to Huslia, with a second wave moving
around the low over the Chukchi Sea to just west of St Lawrence
Island. At 850 hpa...Pool of colder air that was over the Western
Interior is pulling back to the north and is over the Brooks Range
and Arctic this afternoon and will be north of the Arctic Coast
by Wednesday morning. A dome of warmer air will move over the West
Coast south of Nome with temperatures around 0C over the Lower
Yukon Delta Wednesday morning. No significant changes expected
through Thursday morning as the remainder of the area will have
temperatures slowly moderating.
Surface...Low pressure will be exiting to the east as high
pressure rotates into the area. A 1031 mb high near near the
Pribilofs with high pressure extending northeast to a 1022 mb high
in the Western Alaska Range to a 1019 mb high just east of Old
Crow YT. High pressure extends northwest from the high near Old
Crow YT northwest across the Arctic to a 1009 mb high near 80N and
the Dateline. A weather front associated with a 999 mb low 200 nm
north of Wrangel Island has moved to the West Coast and is moving
into the Western Interior. There is also a 1004 mb low 150 nm
southwest of Yakutat. Wednesday morning the high pressure will
extend from the 1033 mb high near the Pribilofs across the Western
Alaska Range and Upper Yukon Flats to a 1020 mb high in the
Northwest Territories. The low in the Arctic will move to 300 nm
north of Point Lay at 1000 mb with a front extending southeast
over the Eastern Arctic Coast, and another extending south over
Wainwright to Anvik. A 1012 mb low will be developing in the
Chukchi Sea Wednesday morning and will move to Ruby by Wednesday
afternoon.
Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A weather front will move across
the area with snow showers and accumulations to 2 inches. Some
clearing and lifting of the clouds late Wednesday. Winds becoming
southeast to southwest and increasing to 10 to 20 mph with locally
gusty winds to 40 mph. Low tonight in the teens to mid 20s above.
Highs Wednesday will be in the 20s to around 30.
West Coast and Western Interior...A mix of rain and snow showers
across the area through Wednesday. Snowfall accumulations will be
up to 2 inches north of Anvik. Areas of fog with reduced
visibility. Winds from the southwest and west at 5 to 25 mph with
gusts on the capes to 40 mph. Lows tonight in the teens to upper
20s. Highs Wednesday will range from the 30s to the mid 40s.
Central and Eastern Interior...Some clearing overnight with fog
developing across the area at lower elevations with poor
visibility locally in the morning. A decaying weather front will
bring scattered to isolated rain/snow showers to the area
Wednesday. Winds from the southwest and west to 10 mph will be
swinging around from the east and southeast overnight. Lows
tonight will range from the 20s to around 30. Highs Wednesday
will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Another round of snow/rain
is expected Friday as a weather front moves across the Interior
with around 1 inch of accumulation in Fairbanks with higher
amounts on the hills.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A weather system will be
exiting to the east Saturday night with high pressure building
over the Western and Central Interior. A low will be moving east
in the Arctic well north of the coast. A weather front will be on
the West Coast slowly moving east. The front will stall as it
moves inland with showers from the Western Brooks Range south to
Kuskokwim Bay in the Western Interior Monday. The Central and
Eastern Interior will see some clearing with warmer temperatures.
Temperatures in the Arctic will remain on the cool side with
northwest flow into the area.
&&
.Fire Weather...Rain and snow showers through Saturday with just
some short breaks between them and no significant drying, so
there are no concerns at this time.
&&
.Hydrology...Warning continues for Circle with elevated water.
Residents from Fort Yukon downstream should remain vigilant as
breakup continues. There are reports from downstream that the ice
is rotting in place. Most rivers will continue to run high but are
falling slowly as the cooler air and snow in the area have slowed
down the higher elevation melting process. The water table will
remain high with the elevated river levels, so use caution as
local erosion may occur. Conditions can change rapidly during
breakup, so be alert to changing conditions. For the latest river
information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Warning for AKZ220.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ201-PKZ210.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&
SDB MAY 22
Special weather statement, May 10, 2:05 PM AKST, 2 hours 55 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
305 PM AKDT Tue May 10 2022
AKZ218>226-120000-
Southeastern Brooks Range-Upper Koyukuk Valley-
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-Central Interior-
Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-Denali-
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Arctic Village, Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp,
Iniakuk Lake, Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain,
Gobblers Knob, Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle,
Stevens Village, Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek,
Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Nenana,
Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs, Rampart,
Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway,
Alcan, Chicken, Boundary, Healy, Denali National Park, Cantwell,
Carlo Creek, Kantishna, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome,
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
305 PM AKDT Tue May 10 2022
...More Rain and Snow this Week as River Breakup Continues...
A couple of weather fronts will move across the Interior this week
bringing a mix of snow and rain to the area.
A weather front Wednesday will weaken as it moves through the area
with isolated to scattered rain and snow showers, while a second
weather front on Friday will spread more rain and snow to the
area with snow accumulations of around 1 inch in Fairbanks with up
to 4 inches of snow possible in the hills and up to 6 inches of
snow to the Alaska Range.
Temperatures will remain cool across the area with lows in the 20s
to lower 30s, and highs in the 40s to around 50.
Rivers levels across the area remain elevated as breakup on the
Yukon River continues. Breakup conditions can change rapidly so
residents near the rivers should remain vigilant and be prepared
to move to higher ground.
For the latest river conditions go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.
For the latest weather forecasts go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks.