Flood in Alaska, December 2 to 6, 2022

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
550 AM AKST Fri Dec 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A mix of precipitation across the forecast area over
the next couple days as warm air surges north up the West Coast
and into the Western Interior and Arctic. Up to one quarter inch
of ice is expected in coastal areas, see Warnings and Advisories
for locations and details. Temperatures surging well into the 30s
above along the West Coast and above freezing in the Arctic east
to border. For the Interior east of the Nulato hills temperatures
will warm to around freezing Saturday afternoon. Interior will
see mixed precipitation as well with the precip starting out as
snow for most areas.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...A lot of inconsistency over the last few runs, and that
continues with the 01/12Z and 01/18Z solutions. Lots of challenges
with strong winds in the Arctic and on the West Coast lighter than
previous solutions, and the potential for freezing precipitation
not extending as far east into the Interior. Models also not
handling the precip coming faster over the Middle Tanana Valley.
Updated for snow this morning for the Interior. Models still
showing a chance of freezing rain over much of the Central
Interior Friday night and Saturday.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...The long wave pattern consists of a strong
ridge over southern Alaska , with another deep trough over the
Sea of Okhotsk. This general pattern will persist through the
weekend as a series of strong short wave trough make their way
east over the top of ridge and across Northern Alaska. Ridging
will shift to the east Sunday into next week. West coast and
Western Interior will continue to remain unsettled.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A mix of precipitation across the
area with up to one tenth of an inch of ice accumulation expected
along with periods of snow. Strong winds developing as a low
moves north of the coast and winds increase to 35 mph gusting to
50 mph west of Kaktovik, while winds at Kaktovik will increase to
45 mph gusting around 60 mph late Friday afternoon and evening.
Winds will diminish some on Saturday but turn more southeasterly
and pick up again as another low moves north into the Chuckchi
Sea. Heavy snow will continue into the Brooks range through
Saturday with an additional 8 to 16 inches possible. Winter storm
warnings have been extended through Sat. Low temperatures tonight
will range from single digits above to the mid 20s above on the
northwest coast, with lows Friday night in the teens and 20s
above. High temperatures Friday will range from 20s to upper 30s
above.

West Coast and Western Interior...A series of weather fronts will
bring a mix of precipitation to the area with mainly freezing
rain and rain along the coast north to Point Hope, with a mix as
you move further inland. Heavy snow is expected along the south
slopes of the Brooks Range. Heaviest ice accumulation along the
coast with up to one quarter inch. See Winter Storm Warnings and
Advisories for details. Strong south winds from the Bering Strait
to Point Hope at 30 mph gusting around 60 mph will diminish
overnight to 25 mph gusting around 40 mph and continue to diminish
slowly Friday. Winter storm warnings have been extended for the
next round of precip on Saturday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Interior will see mixed
precipitation as well with the precip starting out as snow for
most areas. Models also not handling the precip coming faster
over the Middle Tanana Valley. Updated for snow this morning for
the Interior. Models still showing a chance of freezing rain over
much of the Central Interior Friday night and Saturday.
Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches Fairbanks south, except
4 to 7 inches north of Fox. Ice accumulations of around one tenth
of an inch. Snow expected through Friday afternoon,
then snow could mix or change to freezing rain Friday night into
Saturday afternoon. Winds will ramp up at 925 and 850 mb over the
Northern Interior and higher elevations could see gusty west
winds, blowing snow and low visibility of the Dalton and Elliott
Highways. Winter weather advisories have been added for the Middle
Tanana Valley, Yukon flats and Forty Mile Country for snow and
freezing rain.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A decaying weather front will
bring some snow across the Interior Monday with periods of snow
continuing into Wednesday. A front moves to the West Coast Monday
night spreads freezing rain north to Point Hope and East to
Galena, then east across the state as precipitation turns to all
snow. Periods of snow will continue through Thursday, then
clearing across much of the forecast area.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ201-207>209-211-217.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-203.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ210-212.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ216.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ219.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ221-222-220-224.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ227.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ204-206.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215.
     Gale Warning for PKZ220-225.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225.
     Gale Warning for PKZ230.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230.
     Gale Warning for PKZ235.
     Gale Warning for PKZ240.
     Gale Warning for PKZ245.
&&