The air mass on Saturday, May 21st, was becoming increasingly unstable in advance of a approaching cold front. Modified morning soundings indicated a very unstable air mass by the afternoon.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BMX wrote it up.
The air mass on Saturday, May 21st, was becoming increasingly unstable in advance of a approaching cold front. Modified morning soundings indicated a very unstable air mass by the afternoon. Surface based CAPE was in the 4000-4500 J/kg with enough dry air aloft for damaging downburst winds. The severe threat would emerge again on Sunday as the cold front moved through Alabama.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Birmingham, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 21, 2:57 PM CST, 14 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 357 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022 .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 1245 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022/ Through Sunday. A challenging forecast looks to be in store through the short-term period as an unsettled pattern begins to take shape across the Southeast. A very moist and unstable air mass has taken over much of the region thanks to southerly flow across much of the atmospheric profile. As expected, showers and storms have developed to our south and are increasing in coverage as they move northward. Modified 12z KBMX sounding analysis this morning indicates the possibility of isolated severe storm development, especially across our southwest and southern counties. SBCAPE values of 4000-4500 will be common with enough cold air aloft and DCAPE values around 1500. Although PWATs are fairly low in terms of a true "wet microburst" setup, gusty winds and hail will be possible with any of these storms as we go through the afternoon and early evening. Likely PoPs remain in the forecast across the far south and southwest. As we go into the evening and overnight periods, westerly 500mb flow will develop as upper level shortwave activity is progged to move into Mississippi. There are still some indications that a complex of storms will develop and move eastward into northwestern portions of Central Alabama before midnight. We'll monitor convective trends closely to see if in fact that occurs and if activity is able to hold together. Muggy conditions return again tonight with low clouds developing after midnight once again. There is agreement among high-res guidance members that we'll see a relative lull in the convective activity through at least early Sunday morning, but showers and storms are expected to blossom by late morning and into the early afternoon. A surface front will slowly push southward with the potential for widespread to numerous storms to develop out ahead of the front. The challenge in terms of PoP forecasting on Sunday is that these storms will be mostly mesoscale boundary triggered. In other words, although we'll see widespread coverage of storms, we may still have a few spots that get left out in terms of measurable rainfall. For the folks that do see rainfall, it will be very welcomed, as much of Central Alabama has been on the dry side over the past couple of weeks. Severe storm chances will be limited as daytime heating will be tempered due to widespread clouds throughout much of the day. Low to mid 80s can be expected for highs in a majority of locations by Sunday afternoon. 56/GDG .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0340 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022/ Long term forecast trends remain wet, through at least the work week, with plenty of moisture and instability interacting with synoptic scale features. Have made some adjustments to pops based on timing of these features, but expect further refinement in future forecasts. Added cloud cover and rain chances will keep daytime highs in the 80s, closer to normal values for late May. 14 Previous long-term discussion: /Updated at 0400 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022/ Monday through Friday. An overall wetter, stormier period is forecast across Central Alabama throughout much of the long-term period. This will continue as we start off next week with southwesterly flow aloft overspreading much of the eastern CONUS. A subtropical ridge will remain to our east through this time, allowing for presence of southerly 925-850 mb flow Monday through Thursday. This suggests an enhanced reservoir of tropical theta-e content to spread north from the Gulf, leading to an overall moist/unstable boundary layer at times. Showers and thunderstorms will be a day-to-day likelihood as a result. In addition to the available moisture and instability through much of the period, various synoptic factors will be in play. This will begin on Monday as guidance suggests a mid-level perturbation lingering across the northern Gulf Coast, possibly as the remnants of an MCS. This feature, as progged, will center near Alabama Monday morning. I've favored increased PoPs across the eastern zones as a result of increased lift. Showers and thunderstorms should decrease west to east later that day, both with loss of diurnal heating and being on the subsident side of the shortwave. As this perturbation weakens and moves east, the residual/diffuse surface front should surge north by Tuesday morning as a more potent shortwave ejects to our west. This disturbance will be embedded in a more longwave, amplifying trough positioning across the Intermountain West and Plains. Warm, moist advection will combine with diurnal heating to foster additional showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Best chances will remain across our western zones in closer proximity to forcing/dynamics aloft. This shortwave will generally advance from the ArkLaTex to the Upper Great Lakes. Some guidance suggest a residual MCS entering Central Alabama from the west Tuesday night. Additional shortwave trough ejections are progged after this disturbance exits to our north Tuesday night. There could be as many as 2-3 more, some of these convectively enhanced as they push into the mid Mississippi Valley. With each shortwave ejection, the parent trough will gradually move east. Its presence in the region will become more substantial by Wednesday afternoon. By then, kinematics will increase to support more robust, organized thunderstorm activity. This includes the potential for a 20-30 kt low-level jet, as well as 30-40 kts of 500 mb flow. This will promote eff. bulk shear to increase to 30-40 kts amidst a warm sector containing 1,500- 2,500 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. The best timeframe for this to occur would be Wed afternoon into Wednesday night, but some severe weather threats could persist into Thursday morning depending upon how quickly forcing/dynamics aloft linger in the region. It's still uncertain how the surface low will position during this period, as well as how various mesoscale factors evolve. However, there's enough confidence to introduce this threat into the HWO. More details will emerge in the coming days. Drier, more stable weather should return by Friday as this parent trough departs to the east, allowing for drier air to infiltrate behind the associated cold front. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the short-term period with best SHRA/TSRA at TOI and MGM through this afternoon. Best timing of TSRA or VCTS should be between 20z and 00z this afternoon through the early evening, with potential for lingering SHRA. High confidence exists for MVFR to IFR stratus to develop once again between 06z and 12z for all terminals. SHRA and TSRA is expected to develop once again on Sunday and become more widespread. At this time we've limited all terminals to PROB30 through the morning hours on Sunday and will need to add more widespread coverage in subsequent TAF issuances. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain chances will increase over the next several days with a potential for wetting rainfall through the forecast period, and likely though the week. Low ceilings will be possible each morning as very moist conditions continue near the surface. 20ft winds remain from the southwest to south for the next several days, increasing to 5-8mph by Tuesday afternoon. Given the increases in moisture, minimum RH values remain above 50 percent for much of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 68 83 64 79 63 / 10 90 80 70 30 Anniston 69 82 66 79 65 / 10 80 80 70 40 Birmingham 71 83 66 81 66 / 20 90 80 70 30 Tuscaloosa 70 83 66 81 66 / 30 90 80 60 30 Calera 71 82 67 81 67 / 30 90 80 70 40 Auburn 69 82 67 79 65 / 20 80 60 80 40 Montgomery 71 85 68 83 67 / 20 80 70 80 40 Troy 69 85 67 82 67 / 20 80 60 80 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Birmingham AL 406 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022 ALZ011>015-017>050-221215- Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee- Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega- Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa- Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon- Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour- 406 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the National Weather Service office in Birmingham. .DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Central Alabama this afternoon through 9 PM. Primary threats include damaging wind gusts and quarter size hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across Central Alabama Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. Primary threats include damaging wind gusts and large hail. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed this afternoon, as well as on Wednesday.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
255 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022
ALZ039-212030-
Marengo AL-
255 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Marengo
County through 330 PM CDT...
At 254 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Nanafalia, or 15 miles east of Butler, moving north at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Sweet Water, Putnam, Nanafalia, Half Acre and Nicholsville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3206 8807 3208 8804 3211 8805 3212 8804
3214 8804 3215 8802 3218 8801 3221 8787
3201 8783 3199 8793 3199 8805 3207 8809
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 165DEG 17KT 3206 8796
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
86/MartinSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
406 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022
ALZ042-212130-
Lowndes AL-
406 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Lowndes
County through 430 PM CDT...
At 406 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Beechwood, or 7 miles south of Mosses. This storm was nearly
stationary.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Fort Deposit, Mosses, Hayneville, Gordonville, Lowndes County
Airport, Beechwood, Calhoun, Mount Willing, Collirene, Clover Hill,
Farmersville and Fostoria.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3205 8686 3205 8691 3220 8691 3219 8652
3196 8653 3196 8686
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 177DEG 3KT 3208 8671
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
86/MartinSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
408 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022
ALZ030-031-212145-
Greene AL-Sumter AL-
408 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Greene
and northwestern Sumter Counties through 445 PM CDT...
At 408 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gainesville, or 11 miles north of Livingston, moving northeast at 30
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Boligee, Gainesville, Epes, New West Greene, Allison, West Greene,
New Mount Hebron and Sumterville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3264 8817 3278 8832 3297 8813 3280 8792
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 224DEG 26KT 3276 8819
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
86/MartinThe Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 125 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:09 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees uprooted along Highway 39 near Williams Road.
Report of half-dollar size hail near Franklin Ferry Bridge.
Hen egg size hail reported on Taylors Ferry Road near the Black Warrior River.
Several trees uprooted in the city of Brundidge.
Several trees uprooted in the city of Troy.
Numerous reports of uprooted trees across portions of southern Barbour County.
Several trees uprooted along Highway 239.
Several trees uprooted along Highway 110.
Several trees uprooted and on power lines along Owens Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alabama in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Alabama, May 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1030750, 1030751, 1030752, 1030756, 1030753, 1030755, 1030761, 1030763, 1030767.