Flooding and Hail in Wisconsin, June 24, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
231 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

At 2 PM, a cold front extended from west of Albert Lea MN to
Marquette MI. This front will slowly sag south into the Interstate
90 corridor tonight. With partly sunny skies and mid- to upper 60
dew points, surface-based CAPES have climbed to around 2500 J/kg.
The surface convergence remains weak west of the Mississippi
River, so only expecting scattered showers and storms there this
afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, along and east of the
Mississippi River the surface convergence is a bit better, so the
showers and storms will be more widespread along the front this
afternoon and evening. Overall, the deep shear is rather weak
across the area, but does increase along and north of Interstate
94 into the 30 to 40 knot range later this afternoon and evening.
As a result, there could be some strong to maybe severe storms.
With a long and skinny CAPE profiles, thinking hail up to quarters
would be possible and maybe some wind gusts up to 60 mph.

On Friday, the front continues to sag south across northeast Iowa
and southwest Wisconsin. Surface-based CAPES climb to around
2500 J/kg. Like this afternoon, the shear is rather weak and 850
mb moisture transport stays to our southeast, so if anything
became severe it would be pulse and not organized. Hail and wind
would be the primary threat.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

General southwest flow aloft through the weekend, in fact into next
week as a ridge of high pressure establishes itself over the eastern
CONUS while a trough slowly moves from the Northern Plains toward
the Upper Mississippi River Valley region. This looks to stall a
frontal boundary just south/east of the area with a wave low
pressure rippling northeast along it. This will likely push
shower/storms into the area, mainly south of I-90 Friday night into
Saturday. Frontal boundary remains hung up to our southeast while
that mid-level trough pushes in from the Northern Plains Sunday into
Monday for continued shower/thunderstorm chances. Steepening lapse
rates with closer proximity to the approaching trough looks to
generate more shower/thunder chances into mid-next week. It appears
the ECMWF then produce a closed low with our area of the eastern
periphery Thursday while the GFS keeps the trough open. Either way,
steep lapse rates under the trough/low will continue to produce
shower/storm chances.

Temperature-wise...looks like readings will be near normal through
the period with highs in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows in the mid-
50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

A cold front will produce scattered storms as it moves southeast
through the area through tonight. The best chance looks to be
along and east of the Mississippi River. These storms may impact
KLSE between 25.00z and 25.03z.

The SREF and soundings continue to show IFR/MVFR ceilings look to
impact KLSE after 25.06z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...Boyne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1201 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-251715-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
1201 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
A few storms may be strong to severe along and east of the
Mississippi River. The main threats would be large hail and
damaging winds. In addition, heavy rain is possible. If storms
track over the same area, there maybe some localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Periodic chances of thunderstorms will continue from Friday into
Wednesday. At this time, it is too early to determine if
organized severe weather will occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Any reports of hail, damaging winds, or heavy rain would be
appreciated from this afternoon through Friday.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Boyne

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
312 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

WIZ017-242145-
Taylor-
312 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT TAYLOR COUNTY...

At 312 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Sheldon to 7 miles southwest of New
Auburn. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

These storms will be near...
  Jump River around 345 PM CDT.
  Chelsea and Westboro around 445 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Wood Lake, Polley,
The Mondeaux Flowage, Highway 13 And County Road M, Perkinstown,
County Roads A And E, Highway M And Joe Martin Road, Esadore Lake,
Camp Forest Spring and Kathryn Lake.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4537 9004 4518 9005 4503 9055 4504 9092
      4538 9092
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 271DEG 18KT 4530 9106 4513 9167

JSB