|Downburst winds damaged trees and a shed.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MKX wrote it up.
Clusters of thunderstorms developed along a slow moving cold front over far southern WI.|Downburst winds damaged trees and a shed.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 9:23 AM CST, 3 hours 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1023 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 .UPDATE... (Issued 1022 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021) The progression of the frontal boundary has stalled as the surface low across far SW WI moves into the area this morning. Starting to see winds turn back to the south along the WI/IL border with a bit more clearing noted in satellite as well. Expect a decent gradient in temps today with 80s in the south and 60s north of the front. Instability will be limited to less than 1,000 J/kg and with fairly weak shear expect a few thunderstorms but nothing severe. A few of the hires models do try and suggest a strong storm or two could get going in the Kenosha/Racine area this afternoon provided they get ample heating winds actually switch to the S/SW. As the system moves through this evening expect winds to increase out of the north over Lake Michigan and with a longer fetch of winds the waves may build to 4 feet for locations north of Port Washington and a Beach Hazards Statement will likely be needed for tonight but will look through winds/waves this morning before making any decision on products. Stumpf && .SHORT TERM... (Issued 327 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021) Today through Thursday night: A surface cold frontal boundary remains draped from west to east across southern WI early this morning. However, the shower and thunderstorm threat has largely remained well north of the surface boundary overnight, roughly from near the Dells eastward to Sheboygan. This is within an area of better moisture convergence along a veering 25 to 30 kt lower level jet. Expect these trends to continue over the next several hours, with the shower and thunderstorm threat not shifting south into the Madison and Milwaukee areas until later this morning and into the afternoon as the main mid-level impulse and surface wave of low pressure over Iowa begins to shift into far southern WI. The surface low will shift eastward across southern Lake Michigan into tonight, and will act to push the cold front through far southern sections of WI this afternoon. While severe storms are not anticipated with these thunderstorms today, some locally heavy downpours will be possible over southern WI into this afternoon due to the high moisture content in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. While this does not look to result in widespread hydro concerns for southern WI, there could be a few localized instances of minor flooding. With the surface cold front to shift south of the area this afternoon, the main threat for storms should gradually wane from north to south through the afternoon. However, expect some rain showers to continue this evening as the lower-level baroclinic zone shifts overhead. These showers should end across the area late tonight. Much cooler temperatures will follow this cold frontal passage, with northern parts of the area, north of I-94 likely to struggle to get near 70 today. These cool high temperatures will then be likely areawide for Thursday as cloudy, but dry conditions prevail under a surface ridge of high pressure. Low temperatures Thursday night look to drop into 50s under this high. KJB && .LONG TERM... (Issued 513 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021) Friday through Tuesday: It is starting to look more likely than not that Friday will start out dry, with precipitation potential increasing later in the day and especially into Friday night, as ascent increases ahead of a shortwave dropping through the Dakotas. The track of this wave and associated precipitation remains in question, with models continuing to trend south with most of the precipitation over the weekend. If this trend conditions, southern WI could experience a good amount of dry time through the weekend. However, unsettled weather, with shower and thunderstorms do not look to be too far to our south, so we will have to continue to monitor the track and evolution of this system as a small chances could result in better chances of rain getting into the area. Nevertheless, expect temperatures to remain cool in this pattern, with highs generally in the 70s through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (Issued 1022 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021) A slow moving low pressure system and stalled front will keep much of the area under low stratus with on/off showers. The exception will be for terminals closer to the WI/IL border where winds may stay a bit more out of the south and skies stay mostly clear. Cigs should stay IFR to MVFR for much of the day as the low moves through with bases between 500 and 1,200 ft. Rain should start to taper off my late evening but a low level inversion will keep the low stratus in place resulting in LIFR to IFR cigs tonight through Thursday morning. Stumpf && .MARINE... (Issued 1022 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021) While waves should ease some today in the 2 to 4 foot range, expect northerly winds to increase again tonight into the 15 to 20 kt range. This should build waves back into the 3 to 6 foot range, thus potentially setting up the need for another small craft advisory for the area near shore waters tonight through Thursday. && .BEACHES... While this will lessen the swim severity during the day, expect these waves to result in a moderate swim risk through the day. However, these improvements look shorted lived as northerly winds look to increase into the 15 to 20 kt range tonight into Thursday. This is expected to build waves back into the 3 to 5 foot range again on Thursday, thus resulting in the likelihood of another high swim risk day on Thursday for all of the southern WI shores of Lake Michigan. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1026 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-081530- Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge- Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- 1026 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms are expected today with cloud to ground lightning and heavy downpours being the main risks. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday There is a chance for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. LMZ643>646-081530- Sheboygan to Port Washington WI- Port Washington to North Point Light WI- North Point Light to Wind Point WI- Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL- 1026 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms are expected today with cloud to ground lightning the main risk. Winds increase out of the north over northern Lake Michigan tonight allowing waves to build and these could reach small craft advisory levels. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday There is a chance for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night. LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-081530- Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to mid-line of lake.- Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South Fox Island 5NM offshore- Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid lake- Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- 1026 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Northerly wind gusts to 25 knots and waves to between 4 and 7 feet will continue across the lake. Scattered thunderstorms are expected today over the central and southern portions of the lake with cloud to ground lightning the main risk. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday There are periodic chances for thunderstorms Friday into the upcoming weekend, mainly over southern Lake Michigan. www.weather.gov/mkx
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021
WIZ070-071-071815-
Walworth-Racine-
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL WALWORTH AND
WESTERN RACINE COUNTIES...
At 1250 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Browns Lake,
or 8 miles southeast of East Troy, moving east at 20 mph.
Pea size hail is possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Union Grove, Wind Lake, Rochester, Yorkville, Browns Lake, Eagle
Lake, Waterford North, Bohners Lake, Burlington, Waterford, Honey
Creek, Kansasville and North Cape.
LAT...LON 4275 8837 4284 8808 4284 8806 4267 8796
4267 8818 4264 8819 4263 8834
TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 248DEG 17KT 4269 8830
PATTERSONThe Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 50 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:29 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Many small to medium sized branches snapped off trees. A small shed blown over. A trampoline, secured by rebar, was dislodged and thrown well off property.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 959197.