Scattered showers and storms developed in a moderate CAPE, moderate shear environment to the south of a quasi-stationary front draped across southern New York state during the afternoon and evening of July 7, 2021. Numerous wind damage reports were received, along with a couple of quarter-sized hail reports.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
Scattered showers and storms developed in a moderate CAPE, moderate shear environment to the south of a quasi-stationary front draped across southern New York state during the afternoon and evening of July 7, 2021. Numerous wind damage reports were received, along with a couple of quarter-sized hail reports.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 2:01 PM EST, 1 hour 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 301 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Last day of widespread hazy, hot, and humid conditions in central PA with another threat of strong to severe storms in the afternoon and evening. Seasonably cooler, but still humid on Thursday with numerous showers and locally heavy downpours. The precipitation pattern trends drier into the weekend before unsettled weather returns by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Near term focus is on severe convective potential this afternoon into this evening over parts of central PA. Very warm/hot and humid throughout with potentially unstable airmass and mean layer CAPEs of 1400-2000 J/kg. Mid level cap is again in place and has stunted the vertical growth of cumulus field over most of central PA, but that is changing as we reach mid afternoon. A slow moving shortwave tracking into southwest PA is helping to break the cap as a ribbon of 700 mb winds of 20-25 kts propogates newd this afternoon. Convection has been ongoing since late this morning over southeast OH and WV, but so far unable to reach into the Laurels until very recently with the first shower of the day building along the Somerset/Bedford county border with MD. Further destablization is expected this afternoon, but will be wrestling the cap. Potential is there for strong wind gusts given robust DCAPE values, so this evoluation will be watched in time for possible WW issuance. Farther to the NW and NE, Deep layer shear is more supportive of organized line segments and damaging winds, and SVR WW extend into far northwest PA (just west of Warren County), as well as from the BGM area through the Endless Mountains to the Mid Susq River Valley. Storms with isolated wind damage and locally heavy rainfall expected to develop this afternoon and evening, but similar to Tue aftn, the capping inversion will be difficult to overcome the farther south you look. Thermodynamics (CAPE) will be the main catalyst with ample moisture and instability fueling thunderstorm development...and still some isolated strong storms are possible. Despite good storm motions, air mass is capable of locally heavy rain rates given high dewpoints and PWs around 1.5 inches. WPC D1 MRGL risk ERO (1 out of 4) remains in place through this evening with isolated short-duration flood threat for the most flashy locations that can experience repeat rounds or west- east oriented line segments. The gradual uptick in convection will last through late afternoon and early evening, followed by coverage that could last into late evening or just beyond midnight. Model blends paint the highest precip probs across the NW 1/2 of the area late tonight into early Thursday morning. It will be another muggy night in CPA with minTs in the 65-75F range. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Focus shifts to heavy rain potential on Thursday as the approach of mid/upper trough through the Great Lakes combined with moist south/southwest flow ahead of TS Elsa continues to raise concerns about potential heavy rainfall on Thursday. An overall western trend has continued in model guidance today, raising some concerns for my far southeastern counties to potentially be on the periphery of heavy rains. There remains uncertainty in how convective bands may setup, leading to low confidence in how far west precip trends will evolve. WPC D2 SLGT risk ERO (2 out of 4) includes the eastern 1/3 of the CWA. We will continue to monitor with heavy rain/ff becoming the primary hazards on Thursday. As of now, PHI and LWX will be bordering our southeast counties with Flash Flood Watches as 2 to locally 4" is targeting areas just ESE of my counties. Increased cloud cover and anticipated widespread shower activity will shave about 7-10 degrees from recent highs with fcst maxTs in the mid 70s to mid/upper 80s. It will remain humid with dewpoints holding in the 65-70F range. Latest NHC track takes TS Elsa off the NJ coast by 12Z Friday but the cone of uncertainty has been brought a bit farther to the west so we may see some rain from Elsa clip the southeast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers may linger on Friday, but coverage should be much less than Thursday. Conditions should dry out into Friday night. Models are now suggesting we may not be "out of the woods" with a few showers now possible into Saturday due to persistent upper troughing. 24hrMaxTChange is pretty much neutral Thu into Friday with the most noticeable airmass change set to occur Friday night with fcst lows in the mid 50s/60s. Conditions on Saturday improve slightly, with another chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. By Sunday/Monday, another upper-level trough and surface low-pressure system will contribute to showers and thunderstorms for the start of next week. Unsettled pattern looks to continue into the middle of next week with multiple shortwaves bringing the chance for showers/thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Widespread VFR expected early this afternoon, though we should see an increase in SHRA/TSRA late this afternoon and evening. Expecting convection to start first in the southwest and spread north and east through the evening. Any TSRA could lead to brief reductions in visibility and gusty winds. Most terminals should be dry tonight, though a few SHRA could persist across the west overnight. Outlook... Thu-Fri...Occasional restrictions likely in SHRA/TSRA. Sat...Improved conditions, although a few SHRA/TSRA remain possible. Sun...Chances of afternoon SHRA/TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for PAZ036-056-057- 059-063>066. && SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Dangelo/Colbert/Travis AVIATION...Martin/Travis
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 PAZ064>066-081845- Adams-York-Lancaster- 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Heat Advisory. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are possible from isolated strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are possible Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ004>006-010>012-017-081845- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Strong thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds are possible this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall may result in isolated flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are possible Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ037-041-042-046-051>053-058-081845- Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill- 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Strong thunderstorms with gusty winds are likely this afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible. Locally heavy rainfall may result in isolated flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are possible Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ018-019-024>028-033>035-045-049-050-081845- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder- 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Strong thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible this afternoon and evening. An isolated damaging wind gust is possible. Locally heavy rainfall may result in isolated flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are possible Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ036-056-057-059-063-081845- Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland- 242 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Heat Advisory. Strong thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible this afternoon and evening. An isolated damaging wind gust is possible. Locally heavy rainfall may result in isolated flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are possible Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
335 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
PAZ034-035-072015-
Bedford PA-Fulton PA-
335 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF BEDFORD AND FULTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...
At 334 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Crystal Springs, moving northeast at 35 mph.
Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.
Locations impacted include...
Breezewood, McConnellsburg, Harrisonville, Crystal Springs,
Waterfall, Fort Littleton, Valley-Hi, Saluvia, Sideling Hill Rest
Area and Locust Grove.
LAT...LON 3998 7837 4013 7806 4011 7794 4010 7791
4006 7787 4000 7792 3998 7792 3994 7794
3982 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 233DEG 30KT 3994 7824
JurewiczSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
400 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
PAZ004-072045-
Warren PA-
400 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF WARREN COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM EDT...
At 400 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Spring Creek, moving east at 20 mph.
Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.
Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Youngsville, Russell, Spring Creek, Lottsville, Sugar Grove
and Bear Lake.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4200 7909 4191 7904 4181 7954 4194 7961
4198 7961 4200 7956
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 248DEG 19KT 4192 7950
JurewiczSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
405 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
PAZ024-033-072030-
Somerset PA-Cambria PA-
405 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...
At 405 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Jerome, moving east at 10 mph.
Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.
Locations impacted include...
Johnstown, Westmont, Belmont, Southmont, Boswell, Davidsville,
Jerome, Tire Hill, Elim, Brownstown, Jennerstown, Benson, Laurel
Mountain State Park and Johnstown Flood National Memorial Historic
Site.
LAT...LON 4017 7914 4018 7914 4018 7913 4020 7913
4025 7908 4040 7897 4024 7887 4011 7910
4015 7916 4016 7916
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 255DEG 9KT 4026 7906
BanghoffSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
412 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
PAZ033-072045-
Somerset PA-
412 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SOMERSET COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM EDT...
At 412 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Berlin, moving north at 30 mph.
Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.
Locations impacted include...
Windber, Berlin, Friedens, Boswell, Davidsville, Central City,
Jerome, Jennerstown, Hooversville, Indian Lake, Stoystown,
Shanksville, Benson, New Baltimore, Callimont and Flight 93 National
Memorial.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4024 7906 4024 7871 4009 7873 4006 7876
3982 7875 3976 7879 3976 7900
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 179DEG 28KT 3984 7889
JurewiczThe State College radar (KCCX), 104 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:28 UTC.
38 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and power lines around Westmont and Elim.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down multiple trees in Lorain.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires on Glades Pike.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees on wires east of Shanksville.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires near Summerhill.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires on Woodland Street in Vinco.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires near Schellsburg.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down several trees across northern Warren County.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down power lines and wires across Bates Street in Youngsville.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires near Hollidaysburg.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires and produced structural damage on Stewart Street in Bellwood.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires north of Lewis Run.
A severe thunderstorm produced quarter-sized hail near Gifford.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down multiple trees and wires north of Tipton.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down multiple trees on wires north of Tyrone.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down a large tree near the intersection of Smith Road and Tow Hill Road near Stormstown.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down multiple trees onto wires near Rew.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph uprooted trees near Lurgan.
A severe thunderstorm produced quarter-sized hail near Coryville.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down a large tree onto wires on East Oak Street in Port Matilda.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down large limbs and wires near Tipton.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down multiple trees and wires in and around Warriors Mark.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down large limbs and wires near Newburg.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down numerous trees and wires in Pleasant Gap.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down a large tree across Blanchard Street near Axemann.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down numerous trees along and across Coleville Road near Bellefonte.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down large limbs and tore shingles off of a roof near Boalsburg.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down power poles near Selinsgrove.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires near Renovo.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires west of Haneyville.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires along Second Avenue in South Williamsport.
A severe thunderstorm produced a 64 mph wind gust at Williamsport Regional Airport (KIPT).
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down wires near Elkland.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees across a road east of Leonard Harrison State Park.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires, snapping a pole east of Picture Rock.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto wires north of Benton.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down wires near Wellsboro.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires along the Laurel Highlands Trail northwest of Jennerstown.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires near Jerome.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires in Munster.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 971071, 971065, 971075, 971076, 971082, 971069, 971084, 971275, 971274, 971086, 971277, 971095, 970583, 971280, 971281, 971283, 971276, 971284, 970581, 971286, 971489, 971492, 971285, 971287, 971288, 971289, 971290, 971499, 971494, 971493, 971495, 971503, 971491, 971490, 971501, 971502, 971496, 971497, 971498, 971500.