A moist airmass was in place and contributed to flash flooding across the region during the afternoon hours.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
A moist airmass was in place and contributed to flash flooding across the region during the afternoon hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 11:26 AM CST, 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 .UPDATE... Updated for 18Z aviation discussion && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF discussion: VFR with occasional MVFR/IFR conditions prevail across the area, with the lower visibility and ceilings associated with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. These storms will peak in coverage and intensity by early evening with the southeastern sites, JAN/HKS/MEI/HBG/PIB, seeing the most frequent dips in ceiling and visibility as better storm coverage will occur there. Storm coverage relaxes overnight but high humidity will allow for widespread low stratus and fog to develop mostly for the southeast sites near dawn where MVFR/IFR conditions are likely. Conditions improve to prevailing VFR during the morning Thursday. /86/ && .DISCUSSION... A few light showers accompanied by occasional low stratus continue this morning. Temperature trends have been following quite well with the diurnal forecasted curve. Highs will rise into the middle and upper 80s by afternoon. A weak but well defined trough axis will contribute to numerous showers and storms by afternoon in the presence of a warm, moist boundary layer with around 2,000 J/KG SBCAPE and minimal CINH. A few stronger cores are possible later this afternoon and evening but with limited deep layer flow/shear and nothing extreme in terms of wet microburst potential, any severe wind gust threat seems to be low. /86/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight... The region is situated on the western edge of an area of high pressure located across the Carolinas. To our southeast, Elsa is affecting Florida and to our southwest, an area of low pressure is affecting South Texas. Plentiful moisture has infiltrated the region once again as dewpoints overnight have been in the lower 70s. The 00Z KJAN sounding shows 1.84 inches precipitable water, which has been steadily increasing since our pleasantly drier weather this past weekend. Some showers have lingered overnight mainly across the eastern part of the forecast area and should continue through daybreak. It will be another typical early July today across the forecast area as coverage of showers and thunderstorms should be fairly great across the region. This convective activity may begin a little earlier than normal and continue into the evening hours, with some showers lingering overnight once again. At this point, don't expect severe weather with this activity today. Flow is relatively weak, and with the higher atmospheric moisture content present across the ArkLaMiss, some of this activity could result in locally heavy, efficient rainfall which may result in some localized flash flooding issues. Temperatures today, thanks to the early clouds and/or some fog in the morning as well as the early start to convection, should be cooler than yesterday. Highs will be cooler in the east with highs in the lower 80s. Elsewhere, temperatures should rise into the mid to upper 80s with potentially some lower 90s possible in the Delta. Overnight lows will be typical for July in the upper 60s and lower 70s. /28/ Tomorrow through Wednesday: A seasonable mid-summer pattern will persist across the area through the forecast period with warm temperatures and daily diurnally driven convection. The forecast starts off tomorrow with broad upper troughing draped across the Mississippi Valley and into the Appalachians. A slug of deep tropical moisture is also progged to extend from the Texas coast into the area with PWATs at or just above 2". As such, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be likely across much of the area tomorrow, however, weak thermodynamic parameters will preclude any severe weather. Cloud cover and expected coverage of showers and thunderstorms will keep temperatures in check with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Heading into Friday and Saturday, stout upper ridging over the Four Corners is forecast to expand further east into the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will shunt greatest coverage of afternoon showers and storms to along and east of I-55 on Friday with only isolated to scattered coverage on Saturday. Temperatures will also warm with highs in the low to mid 90s on Saturday. Heading into Sunday and next work week, 00z suite of global guidance is in good agreement that a northern stream shortwave trough will dive through the Northern Plains and into the Mississippi Valley. While differences remain with regards to timing and amplitude of the wave, the general consensus is that the Four Corners ridge will retrograde into the Great Basin with lower heights and troughing across the Lower Mississippi Valley. A surface cold front will also approach the area early next week, although it remains to be seen as to whether the front will make significant progress into the area or stall just to the northwest. Regardless, at least scattered coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue with seasonable high temperatures in the low 90s. /TW/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 85 72 90 72 / 84 35 66 16 Meridian 82 69 88 70 / 83 42 72 19 Vicksburg 87 72 90 72 / 79 30 60 15 Hattiesburg 83 72 89 73 / 87 33 66 18 Natchez 85 71 89 72 / 73 32 65 16 Greenville 87 72 90 72 / 58 27 54 12 Greenwood 87 71 91 72 / 77 32 61 16 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && LP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 207 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074- 080715- Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar- Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes- Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston- Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper- Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah- Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln- Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest- 207 AM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Monday. 28 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... No short term hazards expected. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Tropical page... https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan National Hurricane Center Home Page... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss
The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 108 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:26 UTC.
6 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Streets were flooded in downtown Louisville.
Flash flooding occurred along Suncrest Drive.
Street flooding occurred around Clinton and water accumulated in yards. Flooding occurred in the Kentwood subdivision where one to two feet of water was across roads. Water also entered a house on Neal Street.
Flooding occurred with water near homes and in yards. Street flooding occurred in South Jackson.
Multiple roads were underwater. These included: Old Whitfield Road near Fire Academy Drive, Old Brandon Road near City Hall, S Pearson Road and Hwy 468 south of town near railroad tracks.
Multiple streets were flooded in Pickens.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 959350, 959352, 959351, 959354, 959355, 959353.