Several weather systems moved across Western Washington at the beginning of the new year, bringing with them widespread lowland rain, heavy mountain snow, and gusty winds to the area.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.
Several weather systems moved across Western Washington at the beginning of the new year, bringing with them widespread lowland rain, heavy mountain snow, and gusty winds to the area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 2, 3:25 AM PST, 2 hours 35 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
325 AM PST Sat Jan 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS...Active weather will continue through at least the
middle of next week as a series of storm systems move across the
area from the Pacific. The next system will arrive today, bringing
mountain snow, breezy to locally windy conditions, and moderate
to locally heavy rain to the lowlands. After a brief break Sunday,
another system arrives Monday, and another Tuesday, carrying
similar impacts to today's system. By the latter half of next
week, there appears to be at least some signal for a break in the
wetter weather as a ridge attempts to develop across the W CONUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Water vapor imagery early
this morning reveals a series of storm systems embedded within
large scale cyclonic flow that extends across the majority of the
far North Pacific. The jet stream lies just south of this flow,
separating it from expansive high pressure across the Central
portion of the North Pacific. Downstream, troughing over the
Pacific Northwest gives way to a split-flow pattern across the
Central US where a broad trough resides over the Southern Plains
into northern Mexico and high pressure lies over the Northern
Great Plains. At the surface, a frontal system was noted well
offshore the WA and BC Coasts, with high pressure extending from
the Rockies into the central US.
Latest MRMS radar imagery reveals increasing shower activity
across the majority of W WA this morning, of which appears to be
associated with increasing WAA around 700mb and isentropic ascent.
Just upstream of this shower activity resides widespread
stratiform rain, associated with an approaching warm front over
the Pacific. Over the next several hours, as the warm front gets
closer to the local area, rain coverage will noticeably increase,
especially across the Olympic Peninsula. Snow levels will hover
around 4000 ft, with snowfall expected to increase across the
higher terrain of the Olympics. A Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for the Olympics at elevations 4000ft and above beginning
at 12z (4AM) this morning. By late morning and early afternoon,
precipitation should overspread most of the area, with snow
levels rising to between 3500 ft in the N Cascades to around 5500
ft towards the Coast as the warm front lifts across the area. New
snow accumulation is expected over the Cascades before snow levels
peak around 4500 ft late afternoon/early evening. This may cause
travel impacts at Stevens Pass before snow then mixes with or
transitions for a brief period to rain. As the warm front lifts
across the area, expect winds to pick up out of the south with
gusts generally between 25-35 mph, except higher along the Coast
where gusts of up to 60mph will be possible (See NPWSEW for high
wind warning details) and across the N Interior including the San
Juans, W Whatcom and Skagit Counties, and the Admiralty vicinity
where gusts up to 55 mph are possible (see NPWSEW for Wind
Advisory information). Gusty winds will gradually subside with the
passage of a cold front tonight.
By this evening, widespread moderate to locally heavy
precipitation will continue across the majority of the area (see
hydrology section below for more details). Snow levels will peak
during this timeframe, with a cold front beginning to move into
the area off the Pacific. By late evening, the front is expected
to pass through the Olympic Peninsula, with precipitation quickly
winding down and snow levels falling to around 2500 ft. Not
expecting much in the way of additional snowfall across the
Olympics as snow levels tank, so the winter wx advisory is
currently set to expire at 10PM. Precipitation will then quickly
decrease in coverage from west to east through the overnight
period, however, snow levels look to fall rapidly across the
Cascades before precip ends. The heaviest snow accumulation is
expected overnight across the Cascades, with snow levels dropping
to between 2000-2500ft during this time period. Heavy snow will be
possible at Stevens Pass into Sunday morning. A Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for the Central Cascades, with a Winter
Storm Warning across the N and S Cascades valid 18z (10AM) Sat-
18z (10AM) Sunday.
Western Washington will see a lull in between storm systems on
Sunday with scattered showers possible through the day-especially
across the North, with snow levels hovering between 2000-2500ft
through the day. By Sunday night, the next in a series of Pacific
storm systems will dig towards the offshore waters of the PNW,
tapping into sufficient deep layer moisture and helping lift
another warm front across the area. Precipitation will spread over
the area into Monday from south to north, with snow levels rising
back up towards 4000-5000ft. Another round of mountain snow (tho
not as heavy as the previous system) is expected along with
another period of breezy winds.
Kovacik
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Active weather will continue
through the long term forecast period as large scale cyclonic flow
dominates the North Pacific. By Tuesday morning, a rather deep
extratropical cyclone will move into the Aleutian Islands
vicinity. As this occurs, a shortwave perturbation will eject from
its southern periphery towards BC. This will carry the next
organized front towards Washington, bringing the next round of
rain to the area late Tuesday through the first part of Wednesday.
Unsettled conditions will then likely linger through the
remainder of the day. As all of this occurs through midweek, a
glance well downstream reveals a very strong ridge of high
pressure developing over the far N Atlantic into Greenland and
eventually into NE Canada. This is expected to bring about a
pattern change to some extent, with a handful of ensemble
solutions pointing towards the development of a ridge across at
least some part of the Western US. If the ridge trends towards the
West Coast, could see a somewhat drier period of weather. If it
trends more towards the Rockies, the trough over the Pacific may
hold greatest influence over the local area, yielding a continued
active period of wetter weather. This forecast will lean towards a
drier trend for now (well, at least drier compared to the short
term). This will be rather interesting to watch in the coming
days, as this pattern is indicative of a potentially strong -AO
pattern, usually pushing cold air into the US, typically east of
the Rockies.
Kovacik
&&
.AVIATION...Strong westerly flow aloft and a moist air mass in
place today as a vigorous frontal system moves into the area this
afternoon. Ceilings will deteriorate to low MVFR this morning with
rain increasing. Precipitation will become heavy at times by late
afternoon and evening further reducing ceilings to IFR at times with
surface visibilities of 3-5SM. Gusty southerly surface winds will
increase by late morning with gusts 30 to 40 mph especially coastal
areas and north interior.
KSEA...Ceilings lowering to MVFR with rain increasing by daybreak.
Rainfall will become heavy at times after 18Z with periods of IFR
ceilings and surface visibility below 3SM possible. Surface winds
southerly 15 to 25 knots with gusts of 30-35 knots possible 17Z-01Z.
27
&&
.MARINE...A strong front will move onshore this afternoon producing
storm force wind gusts over the coastal waters and solid gale force
winds for the inland waters. In addition, seas will rise to 20 to 25
feet and persist into Sunday. Another potent frontal system arrives
Sunday night and Monday with gales again expected for the coastal
waters and portions of the inland waters.
Severe bar conditions at Grays Harbor Bar continuing for most of the
next week.
The active pattern looks to continue through much of next week with
frontal systems moving across the waters every 24 to 36 hours
producing possible gales and keeping seas hazardous. 27
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Flooding continues on the Skokomish River in Mason
County early this morning. The Skokomish will remain above flood
stage into early next week with major flooding possible tonight
into Sunday morning.
Rain spreading inland this morning with rain continuing in the
mountains into the evening hours. Rainfall amounts for the 24 hour
period ending at 12z Sunday of 2 to 3.5 inches in the Cascades
are forecast with 2.5 to as much as 6 inches for the Olympics.
Snow levels 3500 to 4000 feet early this morning rising 5000 feet
by late afternoon. Snow levels lowering back down to around 2500
overnight into Sunday morning. Snow levels a little lower than
previously forecast which could be a limiting factor in how much
rivers rise this weekend.
A flood watch remains in effect for all the lowlands. The best
chances for river flooding will be on rivers flowing off the
Olympics, including but not limited to the Bogachiel and Satsop,
late tonight into Sunday morning. There is still a chance of
river flooding on the rivers flowing out of the Cascades Sunday
but the lower forecasted snow levels have reduced the chances.
Increasing rainfall rates in the lowlands this afternoon into the
evening hours could result in some minor urban or small stream
flooding. With soil moisture already high this additional rainfall
will also elevate the landslide threat across the area. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Flood Watch from 10 AM PST this morning through late Sunday
night for Admiralty Inlet Area-Bellevue and Vicinity-
Bremerton and Vicinity-Cascades of Pierce and Lewis
Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties-Cascades
of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-Central Coast-East Puget
Sound Lowlands-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Everett and
Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-North
Coast-Olympics-San Juan County-Seattle and Vicinity-
Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-Western Skagit County-
Western Strait of Juan De Fuca-Western Whatcom County.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM PST this evening
for Bremerton and Vicinity-Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal
Area-Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM PST Sunday
for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of
Whatcom and Skagit Counties.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM PST
Sunday for Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM PST this evening
for Admiralty Inlet Area-San Juan County-Western Skagit
County-Western Whatcom County.
High Wind Warning from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this
evening for Central Coast-North Coast.
High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM PST Sunday
for Central Coast-North Coast.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
Olympics.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Grays Harbor Bar.
Storm Warning until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight PST tonight
for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out
10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To
Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening
for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
Gale Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for West Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST this evening
for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
www.weather.gov/seattle2 heavy snow, 1 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy snow began to fall in the North Cascades during the early morning hours of January 2 and continued to fall before tapering around sunrise on January 3. NWAC snowfall observations indicate new snowfall amounts of around 20-25 inches near the Mount Baker Ski Area within this event.
Winter weather affected the Central Cascades at the beginning of the New Year. About 15 inches of new snow fell at Snoqualmie Pass beginning around noon on January 2nd through the evening hours on January 3. During the evening hours of January 2, I-90 EB was closed at MP 46 due to a spun out semi truck. Stevens Pass also experienced heavy snow during this event, with around 18-19 inches of snow within a 24 hour period extending from roughly 1PM January 2 through 1PM January 3. This prompted US 2 to close in both directions between MP 72 and MP 80 given hazardous road conditions.
Heavy snow began to fall in the Southern Cascades during the early afternoon hours on January 2. By 12 PM on January 3 (24 hours later), 21-22 inches of new snow were reported around Paradise at Mount Rainier National Park. Snow then gradually tapering into the evening hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Washington in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, January 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 939672, 939671, 939673.