An upper level disturbance crossed through the area from the west on August 19th, leading to showers with moderate to heavy rainfall expanding in coverage throughout the day. Due to the rainfall received with the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred the previous day, soil across the area was already saturated in many locations which became the most susceptible to flash flooding issues.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RLX wrote it up.
An upper level disturbance crossed through the area from the west on August 19th, leading to showers with moderate to heavy rainfall expanding in coverage throughout the day. Due to the rainfall received with the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred the previous day, soil across the area was already saturated in many locations which became the most susceptible to flash flooding issues. One of those areas ended up being the observance of high water over a few roads in Buchanan County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 19, 1:53 PM EST, 1 hour 22 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 253 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level disturbance provides heavy rain through tonight. Daily afternoon/evening shower and storm chances then continue into the weekend ahead of a weakening cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 253 PM Thursday... Widespread showers with embedded areas of moderate to heavy rainfall has led to several instances of flooding so far today and this will remain a threat through this evening due to the very wet antecedent conditions that are in place and PWAT values in the 1.8 to 2 inch range. The extensive cloud cover today has kept instability rather limited today so considered completely removing thunder mention from the forecast through tonight, but latest SPC mesoanalysis data does suggest that there might be just enough instability for some lightning activity to occur so will leave the mention of thunder in the forecast for now. Regardless, heavy rain and instances of flooding will remain the main threat through this evening given the aforementioned moisture parameters in place and low FFG values due to the heavy rainfall in previous days. Precipitation coverage is expected to decrease tonight as forcing decreases with the departing shortwave and drier air aloft builds in, but will not completely remove PoPs tonight as low level moisture lingers. However, the main concern tonight will be dense fog across the entire region due to light winds, very wet soil conditions, and decreasing cloud cover. While some cloud cover is expected to linger, the heavy rainfall from today and recent days should provide more than enough moisture for fog to develop and potentially become dense in many locations. Overall, much drier conditions are expected on Friday but some isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible as a shortwave trough drops into the Ohio Valley. Despite the wet soil conditions that will remain in place tomorrow, PWAT values will be in the 1.4-1.5 inch range, which should be much more manageable and limit the flooding threat much more than previous days. However, WPC does have a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall tomorrow across the eastern parts of the area in the mountains where the PoPs will be highest. In addition, temperatures are expected to be in the low/mid 80s across the lowlands and upper 60s to 70s in the mountains, which are right around normal values for mid August. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM Thursday... A shortwave trough present over the area at the beginning of the period will gradually shift east by the end of the weekend. For Saturday, surface high pressure tries to work into the area which should allow for a quieter, drier morning. Chances for showers and storms will then increase during the afternoon and evening hours. On Sunday, high pressure and drier air continue to build into the low levels and a weak boundary is projected to dissipate as it approaches the area. Have maintained chances for showers and storms during the day, though they would likely be isolated in nature. Both Saturday and Sunday, high temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s in the lowlands and 70s to low 80s in the mountains. Lows will range from upper 50s in the mountains to mid 60s in the lowlands. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1208 PM Thursday... A cold front will attempt to push into the area on Monday. However, current thinking is that the boundary should remain to our north with high pressure across the area through Wednesday. A cold front should then sweep across the region on Thursday. With high pressure at the surface and aloft, expect any precipitation to be in the form of mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms Monday into Wednesday. Monday should be the driest day with increasing chances of precipitation each day. Expect storms to be more numerous on Thursday as the front pushes southeast. Temperatures should be above normal Monday through Wednesday with readings slightly above normal on Thursday. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 147 PM Thursday... Widespread showers with some embedded pockets of moderate to heavy rain will continue to move across the region through this evening as an upper disturbance pushes through. A combination of MVFR to low-end VFR CIGs will be in place at the start of the TAF period, but ceilings should temporarily rise to mainly VFR this evening as the upper disturbance departs the area. Occasional VSBY restrictions to MVFR/IFR could also occur through this evening, mainly during periods of heavier rainfall. While precipitation coverage should decrease this evening as the upper disturbance departs and conditions at least temporarily improve, there is potential for widespread dense fog to develop across the entire region tonight. The one potential limiting factor will be how much cloud cover lingers around tonight, but due to the very heavy rainfall in recent days and abundant moisture, fog should pretty much develop at all terminals. Thus, an extended period of IFR/LIFR conditions is expected overnight at all TAF sites. Since fog should generally be pretty dense overnight, it should be slow to lift on Friday morning, but eventually a gradual return to VFR is expected by late morning or into the afternoon hours for most areas. However, some MVFR ceilings may linger in the mountains into Friday afternoon. Some isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop by the afternoon hours, mainly in the mountains, but confidence is too low to include in TAFs at this time. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY restrictions from moderate to heavy rain through this evening may vary from forecast. Timing, extent, and density of fog overnight tonight will be driven mainly by lingering cloud cover. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H M H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M H M M H H M H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR valley fog possible each morning through Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && SYNOPSIS...RG/JLB NEAR TERM...RG SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...RG
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Charleston WV 524 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 KYZ101>103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013>016-024>028-033-034-515- 200930- Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell- Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-McDowell- Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh- 524 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and portions of central West Virginia, southeast West Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The area is under a slight risk for excessive rainfall today. Isolated water issues will be possible with any slow moving or repetitive showers and storms due to sensitive soil conditions from recent rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports. OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ007>011-017>020-029>032-039-040-200930- Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia- Lawrence OH-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Wirt-Calhoun- Ritchie-Doddridge-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour- 524 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West Virginia and western West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The area is under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall today. Isolated water issues will be possible with any slow moving or repetitive showers and storms due to sensitive soil conditions from recent rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports. WVZ516>526-200930- Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette- Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster- Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas- Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph- 524 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The area is under a slight risk for excessive rainfall today. Isolated water issues will be possible with any slow moving or repetitive showers and storms due to sensitive soil conditions from recent rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The area is under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Friday. Isolated water issues will be possible with any slow moving or repetitive showers and storms due to sensitive soil conditions from recent rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0107 PM FLASH FLOOD EAST LYNN LAKE 38.15N 82.38W
08/19/2021 WAYNE WV 911 CALL CENTER
REPORTS OF FLOODING IN EAST LYNN.
0112 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 ESE FORT GAY 38.09N 82.51W
08/19/2021 WAYNE WV 911 CALL CENTER
REPORTS OF FLOODING ALONG MILL CREEK.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
244 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 SSW RAVENSWOOD 38.91N 81.78W
08/19/2021 JACKSON WV 911 CALL CENTER
FLATWOODS ROAD IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLASH
FLOODING.
&&
ABEPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
258 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0205 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SW HENDERSON 38.81N 82.15W
08/19/2021 MASON WV DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
COUNTY ROUTES 16 NEAR JERICHO AND 29 NEAR
GALLIPOLIS FERRY CLOSED DUE TO FLASH
FLOODING. ONE LANE OF WV ROUTE 2 BLOCKED BY
HIGH WATER NEAR GALLIPOLIS FERRY.
&&
ABEThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 103 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:14 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
High water flowed across Route 2450 near the town of Big Rock.
In the town of Hurley, high water flowed across Hurley Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 968865, 968869.